Pakistan: Former PM Imran Khan Dominates By-elections
On Sunday, former Pakistani PM Imran Khan led his party to victory in a set of by-elections that saw him win six out of seven contested National Assembly seats. The seats that were balloted on were some of the eight positions vacated in April, when Khan was forced out of office and his political allies were prompted to resign.
The results are likely to intensify the former PM's calls for early general elections, with Khan arguing they indicate that he - along with the Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party he leads - has popular support.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Pakistani people have made it clear that they support Khan and reject the current, foreign-imposed government. It's now time for usurpers to concede their failure and comply with the national call for general elections. If they are not given this democratic right, the people of Pakistan are ready to take to the streets.
Pro-establishment narrative
State institutions were used to attack Khan's rivals during his term, but he now claims that he had no decision-making power during his tenure and even alleges that he is the one being persecuted. Although these by-elections suggest that Khan's lies and accusations have been successful at retaining his support base, the continuation of PTI power in politics will bring no good to Pakistan.
Nerd narrative
There's a 45% chance that Pakistan will default on its debt in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia Reverses Recognition of Jerusalem As Israeli Capital
On Tuesday, Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong announced that the new Labor government has reversed former PM Scott Morrison’s 2018 decision to formally recognize West Jerusalem as Israel's capital, saying Jerusalem's status should be resolved through peace negotiations, not unilateral decisions.
Wong announced the Labor Government was committed to a two-state solution in which Israel and a future Palestinian state coexist "in peace and stability," adding that Australia's embassy would remain in Tel Aviv, where it "has always been."
Establishment-critical narrative
Besides being a poor policy move that panders to the most drastic parts of Australia's labor party, the way the news was delivered is insulting Approved on a Jewish holiday, the Australian government thought the quiet removal of Jerusalem's status from its website would go unnoticed — a chaotic and unprofessional lack of courtesy.
Pro-establishment narrative
Australia is firmly committed to a two-state solution, and recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel directly undermines this. Australia's former PM Morrison's 2018 decision was nothing more than a manipulative attempt to win favor, and the new Labor leadership has rightly reversed this.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by November 2065, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
US Midterms: Abrams, Kemp Debate in Ga. Gov. Race
In a 2018 rematch, Republican Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams clashed at a debate on Monday after more than 100K people went to the polls on the first day of early voting.
Abrams described Kemp's lack of gun control as "dangerous." Referring to the continued prevalence of school shootings in the US, she stated, "these are communities that want to be safe" and "we can protect the Second Amendment and second-graders."
Democratic narrative
Campaigning to be the first Black female governor in American history, Abrams is looking to take one step further from her narrow loss in 2018. Despite her near-miss, national Democrats saw and continue to see a promising leader who cannot be counted out with time still to go until Election Day.
Republican narrative
Among prominent Republicans, Governor Kemp is the least dependent on Trump. Refusing to submit to Trump's election claims and promoting clean-energy conservatism, his strong approval numbers against Abrams can be attributed to his focus on widely popular issues. Kemp may well be the way forward for the GOP.
Nerd narrative
There is a 14% chance that Stacey Abrams will be elected governor of Georgia in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 237: Russia Continues Targeting Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure; 13 Dead in Russian Warplane Crash
Russian attacks again pounded energy infrastructure across Ukraine on Tuesday, striking facilities in Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr. Preliminary information suggested that at least two people were killed and five were injured in Kyiv, while two people were injured in Zhytomyr.
On Twitter, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the strikes as "another kind" of Russian terror attack. He also stated that 30% of Ukraine's power stations have been destroyed since Oct. 10 and added that, as a result, there was, "no space left for negotiations with Putin's regime."
Anti-Russia narrative
Ukrainians that have so far survived Putin's brutal bombings will soon have to endure another humiliating challenge thanks to Russia's illegal invasion surviving the sub-zero temperatures of winter with no heat or electricity. Ukraine must focus on repairing the energy infrastructure targeted by Russian strikes if civilians are to be protected from the deprivation that may lie ahead.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia's response to Ukraine's actions has so far been restrained, but the nation has warned countless times that its patience is not infinite. Moscow's tough response to ongoing terrorist attacks – including the strike on the Crimean Bridge – has been long coming, and the only people to blame for the suffering of Ukraine's civilians are the political and military leaders complicit in terror attacks on Russia.
Nerd narrative
There is a 15% chance that Ukraine will receive a security guarantee from another country before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Taliban: US Won't Support Non-State Actors
This week, Taliban sources reportedly told Al Jazeera that the US has agreed not to fund non-state actors in Afghanistan. The commitment was reportedly made when top US officials met with the Taliban on Oct. 8 in Qatar, the first meeting since al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed in Kabul by a US drone strike in July.
The US delegation at the meeting included CIA Deputy Director David Cohen and State Dept. Special Representative for Afghanistan, Tom West. Abdul Haq Al-Wasa, head of Taliban intelligence, led the Afghan representatives.
Pro-establishment narrative
Maintaining diplomatic relations is a necessary foreign policy for the US and other nations. Speaking with Taliban leadership isn't the same as legitimizing the new regime, and it's only through conversations between the regime and Western governments that respect for human rights can ultimately be restored.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Taliban has little interest in following through with their diplomatic promises to the US. The recent killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri in July reveals this, as Afghanistan was used as a base for transnational terrorism. How can the US have any hope for negotiations if fundamental commitments are ignored?
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that the United States will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Jan 6: DOJ Wants Bannon to Serve 6 Months In Prison
On Monday, the US Dept. of Justice (DOJ) recommended that Steve Bannon should serve six months in prison and pay a $200K fine for defying a congressional subpoena.
In a sentencing memorandum filed before US District Judge Carl Nichols for having pursued a "bad-faith strategy of defiance and contempt," Barron's attorney asked the judge to release the ex-Trump aide on probation while his guilty verdict is appealed.
Democratic narrative
Bannon's latest troubles only show that the walls are closing in on Trump and his allies. Although the wheels of justice turn slowly, they are still turning — the GOP should move away from the MAGA movement as quickly as possible if they have any sense.
Republican narrative
Despite charges against him, Bannon's strategy of encouraging MAGA supporters to regain control of the GOP from the bottom up could have massive electoral implications for years to come. Undeserved prison time may only bolster Bannon's support with his fanbase, and his influence seemingly will not die anytime soon.
Nerd narrative
There is a 90% chance that a member of Trump's inner circle will be sentenced to jail by 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Mossad Allegedly Behind Kidnapping Incident in Malaysia
Malaysia's New Straits Times broke a story on Monday suggesting that Israel's national intelligence agency, Mossad, recruited a group of Malaysians to abduct two Palestinian men they believed to be assets of the Hamas's al-Qassam Brigade.
The Malaysian team intercepted the two Palestinians on Sept. 28, when the duo, both computer programming experts, were shuttled inside one of two vehicles by four men.
Pro-Palestine narrative
This incident is just another example of how Israel violates international rules and norms to pursue its supposed "interests." Malaysia is a sovereign country, and Israel has no right to launch operations against its perceived enemies. Israel must be held accountable for its reckless behavior.
Pro-Israel narrative
Malaysia, though officially not an enemy state of Israel, does not recognize Tel Aviv, and money from Malaysian charities has been funneled to Hamas in the past. It's well known that Hamas has a strong presence in Malaysia, and Israel has been quite clear that it will target Hamas terrorists anywhere worldwide. There can be no haven for terrorists or their supporters.
Over-the-Counter Hearing Aids Now Available in US
On Monday, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) made hearing aids available over-the-counter (OTC), a change that makes the devices available to tens of millions of adults with mild to moderate hearing loss without a prescription and at lower prices.
The move comes as a result of Biden’s "Executive Order on Promoting Competition in the American Economy," issued over the summer. Already devices are becoming available at retailers for as low as $199, compared to thousands of dollars in the past.
Democratic narrative
This move is a game-changer and Biden’s executive order is what pushed it over the finish line. Now, 90% of Americans with hearing loss can get affordable, accessible hearing health care and the hearing aid industry can become more competitive and innovative. Americans with hearing aids will also improve their physical and mental health.
Republican narrative
While this ruling will help millions of hard-of-hearing Americans, there's still some medical risk to buying a hearing device without consulting a professional. Biden’s executive order and this ruling also don't put a dent in inflation, so it would be nice if he found a way to lower the prices of everything else, too.
US Midterms: Utah Senate Debate Focuses on Jan. 6
During a debate on Monday, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and his independent challenger Evan McMullin, a former CIA officer, sparred over Lee’s alleged role in efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and extend Donald Trump’s presidency. [McMullin was formally in the GOP and is endorsed by Democrats.]
Lee and McMullin agree on most issues, with the latter supporting limits on abortion, opposing Biden’s student-debt relief program, and blaming Biden for continued inflation. But when the moderator brought up claims by Trump and others that the 2020 election was rigged, McMullin and Lee traded barbs.
Pro-Trump narrative
Whether he’s buying what the House Jan. 6 committee is pandering, or he’s manipulating the facts for his benefit, McMullin has no right to slander Lee. Even non-partisan reports show Lee was only asking questions about the possibility of Trump remaining in office, not actively pursuing any schemes. This shows how dangerous Jan. 6 rhetoric can be.
Left narrative
The emails Lee sent to Meadows show how dedicated the senator was to the multi-step process the Trump admin. tried to execute in order to hang on to power. It’s important that the principled independent McMullin spell out for voters just how much of a willing participant in an attempted coup Lee was between the 2020 election and Jan. 6. This race is a referendum on democracy itself.
UN: Somalia Could Face Worst Famine in Half a Century
As it set a new United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) goal of $2B, the UN on Tuesday reported that a child is admitted to the hospital every minute for malnutrition in Somalia amid what it says is the nation's worst famine in 50 years.
An estimated 7.8M Somalis — about half the population — are now affected by drought, 213k of whom are at risk of famine. 44k children were admitted to the hospital for severe acute malnutrition in August alone.
Pro-establishment narrative
While many factors lead to widespread famines such as this, Putin's decision to not only attack Ukraine but bomb Ukrainian grain supplies en route to Africa is at the top of the list. Droughts have historically caused Somalia and others to rely on Eastern European food imports, and now it's facing a preventable tragedy because of Putin's invasion.
Establishment-critical narrative
The West, led by the US, has been intruding in Somalia for almost 30 years — a fact that's conveniently forgotten when news of a historic famine breaks. Russia didn't cause the displacement, disease, and famine faced by millions of Somalis; the US military's destabilization of the entire country did, starting decades ago.