Sudan Accuses Ethiopia Of Killing 7 Soldiers, One Civilian
Sudan's military has denounced the alleged killing of seven Sudanese soldiers and a civilian in a border area with Ethiopia, the latest sign of deteriorating relations between the two east African nations.
On Mon., Sudan's Foreign Ministry said the prisoners were taken into Ethiopia on Jun. 22 after being held captive by the Ethiopian government inside Sudan's sovereign territory.
Narrative A
Ethiopia has violated all rules and customs of war. The prisoners were being held captive and should've been treated according to human rights principles and international law. Instead, Ethiopia disregarded Sudanese lives.
Narrative B
Sudan has been the one instigating violence in the region, not Ethiopia. Sundanese have looted Ethiopian farms, vandalized their camps, ruined their ability to harvest, and murdered and wounded numerous innocent civilians.
US Midterms: DeSantis Beats Crist in Fla. Gov. Race
With 99% of expected votes counted as of Wednesday evening, Florida's incumbent governor, Republican Ron DeSantis, was re-elected by a 19.4-point margin over his Democratic challenger Charlie Crist in Tuesday's midterms.
Crist, who served as Florida's 44th Governor from 2007 to 2011 as a Republican, gave a concession speech while surrounded by his family at around 8:30 pm on Tuesday.
Republican narrative
DeSantis' policies reflect American principles and must serve as a model for the entire nation. Turning Florida into a refuge of sanity by fighting authoritarianism and "wokeism" has seen him consolidate support and ensure this historic result. This new mandate positions DeSantis as a strong contender for 2024, especially considering the fate of Trump's candidates in the midterm elections.
Democratic narrative
DeSantis's policies during his first governorship should be enough to provoke a major backlash, but Democrats have allowed his re-election by failing to invest in Crist's campaign. Democrats should have done more to target DeSantis and highlight the issues in Florida that he has failed to address — now the new governor will be emboldened to carry out further controversial policies and possibly even run for GOP presidential nomination.
Establishment-critical narrative
DeSantis has performed impressively, but Donald Trump should not be counted out of the 2024 presidential election just yet. Only a fraction of the party faithful that publicly supported Trump through these midterms has peeled off, and his ability to raise campaign funding remains strong. Although DeSantis looks like a convincing presidential nominee, he is yet to prove his appeal beyond the state of Florida — could current commentary be yet another premature declaration of Trump's demise?
Nerd narrative
There's a 36% chance that Ron DeSantis will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 260 Roundup: Ukraine Skeptical of Russian Withdrawal from Kherson
Ukrainian officials have remained skeptical after Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu publicly ordered his troops to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnipro River on Wednesday. The order marks an evacuation of Russian troops from Kherson.
Among those expressing skepticism was Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said: "The enemy does not bring us gifts, does not make 'gestures of goodwill.' We fight our way up." He added: "Therefore, we move very carefully, without emotions, without unnecessary risk. In the interests of the liberation of our entire land and so that the losses are as small as possible. This is how we will secure the liberation of Kherson, Kakhovka, Donetsk, and our other cities."
Anti-Russia narrative
There's no camouflaging Moscow's failure. After illegally annexing Kherson, distributing Russian passports, and suggesting the ruble would replace the Ukrainian hryvnia, Russia's withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro is both unsurprising and humiliating.
Pro-Russia narrative
After strikes on supply lines to the west bank of the Dnipro River, Russian leaders have made the difficult, but strategically sound decision to withdraw troops in order to preserve the lives of servicemen and deploy them more effectively elsewhere.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of Kherson by Nov. 27, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Australia Plans Potential Referendum on Monarchy
The debate about the future of the monarchy in Australia has been sparked following the death of Queen Elizabeth II, with Anthony Albanese's administration planning to hold a referendum to test Australians' support for a republic.
While the government is currently prioritizing the referendum on adding an "Indigenous voice" to parliament in this term, a successful result in this vote would reportedly encourage Albanese to put the post of head-of-state to a national ballot in a possible second term.
Pro-establishment narrative
The monarchy is part of the British heritage that has enabled Australia to be a strong, long-lasting democracy and an attractive destination for immigrants. There's no reason to degenerate the country's culture by replacing this impeccable and impartial leadership for a politicians' republic — especially not when the main argument for that is based on assumptions about the rising population of Chinese and Indian immigrants.
Establishment-critical narrative
Replacing the British monarch is an important move for Australia. It would give all Australian voters a merit-based choice about who speaks for them as head of state — reflecting Australia's maturity, independence, and unique identity. The decision will be in the Australian voters' hands, unlike now, where it's luck of the draw of who's representing the British Royal Family.
Nerd narrative
There's a 72% chance that Australia will hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Twitter: Musk Bans Remote Work
New Twitter owner Elon Musk on Wednesday sent his first email to employees, warning them about “difficult” financial times in the company’s near future, and banning remote work unless he personally approves it. Under previous leadership, Twitter had adopted a permanent work-from-anywhere arrangement for its employees.
Monthly, company-wide “days of rest,” which were introduced during the COVID pandemic have also been eliminated.
Narrative A
After paying a steep price for Twitter, Musk is free to do what likes while managing his staff. But many of the company’s recent problems have been inflicted by Musk, who has scared off advertisers with his reduction in content moderating, and his bungled rollout of the flawed subscription service. He might want to look in the mirror before blaming his new staffers.
Narrative B
Musk is putting Twitter on the right track toward becoming a free-speech sanctuary, and he started with a positive crackdown on users, including celebrities, who have been wrongly impersonating high-profile people. Unfortunately, unhinged woke activists are organizing boycotts of advertisers and hindering his ability to make his vision for the company a reality. So he has to do what he can to counter that cut to revenue.
Nerd narrative
There's a 31% chance that Elon Musk will become the first trillionaire, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Indonesia: Dengue Vaccine Rollout Marred by Concerns
Controversy over potential safety concerns has emerged ahead of a planned rollout of a vaccine aimed at preventing infection from dengue in Indonesia next year. The jab of a drug called Qdenga was developed by Tokyo-based Takeda, with hopes to reduce the 20K annual deaths from the mosquito-borne disease.
The first vaccine for dengue fever was developed more than seven years ago but was only effective for people with previous infections. This development encouraged Takeda to accelerate its actions to manufacture an alternative.
Narrative A
In 2019, a pediatrician and a medical researcher in the Philippines were indicted over the premature and failed rollout of the dengue vaccine, Dengvaxia. Post rollout, 130 children died, sparking concerns over ADE and outrage from the parents of more than 830K children who received the vaccine. Botched rollouts have consequences — even for combating a disease as dangerous as dengue — and Indonesia should proceed with caution.
Narrative B
There may be a different path to take. Researchers in Indonesia have also discovered a new way to fight dengue by breeding a special mosquito species designed to carry bacteria to prevent viruses like dengue from reproducing inside the insect. Deploying the mosquitos has shown a reduction in dengue cases by as much as 77%. This ecosystem-based solution may greatly reduce the need for unproven vaccines in the future.
UK Channel Island Police to Apologize to Russian Businessman Abramovich
On Wednesday, a court on the English Channel island of Jersey ordered local police to apologize to Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich and pay damages for what it ruled to be an illegally obtained warrant to conduct raids of his properties earlier this year. Jersey is a self-governing island but follows UK sanctions.
Sanctioned by Britain, the Royal Court of Jersey froze $7B worth of assets linked to Abramovich in April, with two warrants then issued for police to search premises suspected to be linked to him. Police have now admitted that they were obtained "unlawfully" and "should be quashed."
Establishment-critical narrative
After this formal acknowledgment of illegally searching Abramovich's property, it's safe to say the UK government — and UK-adjacent islands — have gone too far in attacking him. Despite reports that he doesn't even support Putin's invasion, they've stripped him of $7B, his soccer team, and now his privacy.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though sanctions should be imposed lawfully, we shouldn't forget the necessity of monitoring and sanctioning billionaires with deep ties to Putin, which Abramovich inarguably has. Jersey committed itself to ensure its sanctions regime fully aligned with the UK and was merely acting on that pledge in April.
Narrative C
It's hypocritical to impose sanctions on Russia for invading Ukraine, but not on the US for invading Iraq for equally unjustified reasons, or on Israel for invading and annexing Arab lands.
US Midterms: Biden Mulls 2024 Run as Election Results Continue
On Wednesday, Pres. Biden suggested that he intends to "run again" for the presidency in 2024 in his first speech since polls closed for the midterm elections. However, he clarified that he's not in "any hurry" to officially decide and that further conversations are needed.
Reflecting on what he described as a "good day for democracy" and "a good day for America" in the wake of better-than-expected midterm results for the Democrats, Biden — who turns 80 this month — claimed that it would ultimately be a family decision likely made in early 2023.
Democratic narrative
A dreaded "red wave" was thwarted in the US midterms, in large part due to the extraordinary voting power of "Gen Z." Whether Biden chooses to run or not in 2024, the deeper issue for the Democratic party is how to select leadership that will speak to the issues relevant to this emerging voter bloc. This election proved that the future is now.
Republican narrative
Biden is already the oldest sitting president in US history and has poor approval ratings. Things don't look good for the president for a 2024 run. Despite some setbacks in the 2022 midterms, the GOP is looking solid for the next election — especially if Biden insists on trying to carry the mantle.
Nerd narrative
There's a 48% chance that Trump will win the 2024 US Presidential Election if it is Biden v. Trump, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: Chances of Finding COVID Ancestor 'Almost Nil'
In a recent study published in Nature, researchers found that the virus that causes COVID most likely shared a common ancestor with bat coronaviruses as recently as 2016 — just three years before it appeared in humans. The study showed how it would be nearly impossible to find the direct ancestor, however, because of the frequency in which the virus recombines and the length of time that has lapsed.
The search for the origin of the virus was catalyzed when former US Pres. Trump suggested the source of the pandemic was a "lab leak" originating from Wuhan, China. The theory was largely dismissed early on by epidemiology researchers as a conspiracy theory, though some have since claimed it's still considered a possibility by government officials "behind closed doors."
Establishment-critical narrative
No determination should be made on the origins of COVID until all of the data has been reviewed and analyzed — including the lab leak theory. US federal agencies and universities have additional evidence yet to be analyzed that could shed light on missing information. The National Health Institute has failed to dig deep and has overlooked many details. The agency's failure and lackadaisical attitude are no longer good enough.
Pro-establishment narrative
Countless scientists and researchers across multiple studies have found that the COVID virus originated in a market in Wuhan, China, most likely due to multiple zoonotic events. Though the exact origin may never be known, the next step should be focusing on how to reduce the chances of the next "zoonotic spillover" pandemic through detection, surveillance, monitoring, and prevention.
Nerd narrative
There's a 14% chance that there will be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031(inclusive), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iran Claims To Have Built Hypersonic Missile
According to Iran's semi-official Tasnim News Agency, the country's Revolutionary Guards' aerospace commander announced that Tehran has built a hypersonic ballistic missile. So far, there have been no reports of Iran using the weapon.
Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh told reporters on Thursday that this homegrown hypersonic ballistic missile is capable of striking and penetrating advanced air defense systems, adding that he doesn't "think that any technology" capable of countering it would be found "for tens of years."
Pro-Iran narrative
This announcement shows that Iranian armed forces have not only become self-sufficient in weapons manufacturing in recent years but also that they can develop state-of-the-art equipment. It must be crystal clear to Iran's enemies that Tehran will never hesitate to strengthen its military capabilities, nor will it negotiate its defense capabilities.
Anti-Iran narrative
While global powers like China, Russia, and the US are believed to be pursuing hypersonic weapons, this announcement is likely to be another fabrication by Tehran. Hypersonic missiles aren't listed in the Revolutionary Guard's broad ballistic program, and the commander has offered not a single shred of evidence to support his claim.
Nerd narrative
There's a 10% chance that the US will rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.