US Midterms Results: Key Takeaways (Live)
Americans headed to the polls last week to decide the makeup of Congress in a heated election season, with Democrats warning of an alleged threat to American democracy by Republicans, while Republicans focused on the economy and crime.
On Saturday, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won her reelection bid in Nevada, securing the Democrats' a narrow Senate majority for the next two years. Meanwhile, Republicans have taken control of the House in this election cycle, and reached the 218-seat threshold needed to win a majority on Wednesday night. As of Thursday morning, the tally was 218-211.
Republican narrative
Given the current rate of inflation and violent crime crisis, Republicans should have done better, but that doesn't mean there weren't bright spots. One of these was the landslide reelection of Ron DeSantis, and Florida's showcasing of how to run a smooth election. Whether they end up with a majority in the House, the GOP now has two years to take notes and figure out their 2024 game plan.
Democratic narrative
What DeSantis's win shows is that many Republicans throughout the country are still trying — and failing — to run their campaigns like Donald Trump. Election deniers like Doug Mastriano took huge defeats and up-and-coming progressives like John Fetterman had big wins, showing voters care far more about protecting democracy than the MAGA crowd thought.
Hacker Demands $10M to Stop Leaking Australians’ Medical Records
The cybercriminal or criminal organization that stole sensitive records from one of Australia's largest healthcare companies demanded on Thursday roughly $10M to stop leaking the data, as they uploaded even more confidential details about customers.
Early Thursday, the hacker published a message on the dark web asking Medibank to pay $1 for each of the 9.7M customer files that were stolen in last month's data breach.
Pro-establishment narrative
Unfortunately, this is the new world that we live in. The Medibank breach is a huge wake-up call that shows the need for an overhaul of information and privacy protection. From here on in, companies must be aware that they're under relentless cyber-attack. Australia's institutions are generally well prepared but can do even more to safeguard classified information.
Establishment-critical narrative
Cybersecurity isn't taken seriously enough in either the public or private sector. Most business leaders believe that their enterprises are safe from harm, but the truth is far less comforting. In a 2021 study, a staggering 63% of businesses said they had experienced a cyberattack. The hidden cost isn't the value of the stolen information but losing the customer's trust — and the impact that may have on the attacked company's share value.
Nerd narrative
There is a 41% chance the US executive branch will attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.
Iranian Fuel Convoy Attacked on Syria-Iraq Border
An unidentified drone strike was reportedly conducted on an Iranian fuel convoy on Tuesday on the Syrian side of the Syria-Iraq border. Iraqi officials claimed that the convoy consisted of more than 20 tanker trucks, of which at least two were destroyed after entering the Qaim border crossing into Syria.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, at least 15 people were killed in the strike — most of them belonging to Iranian-backed militias. Iranian media outlets claimed that the fuel was destined for Lebanon, but Syrian opposition media reported that targeted trucks also contained weapons.
Anti-Iran narrative
Israel has been quite clear that it will not permit Iran to freely move weapons and fighters through Syria if it threatens Israeli security. If endangered, Israel will target Iranian assets in all of the countries into which Iran has dug its tentacles. Iran will continue to see strikes like this one if its aggression continues.
Pro-Iran narrative
As Iran tries to provide much-needed fuel to crisis-stricken Lebanon, the US shamelessly attacks its convoys. The Lebanese people are living in absolute desperation as oil prices continue to rise in a country suffering under extreme economic conditions. Unfortunately for Lebanon, US hegemony will never allow one of its geopolitical adversaries to provide aid to suffering civilians.
DR Congo Jets Bomb M23 Rebels
Fighter jets from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) began bombing rebel positions on Tuesday, stepping up the fight against the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group, which recently made meaningful territorial gains in the country's war-torn eastern region.
Sukhoi-25 fighter jets reportedly attacked the rebel-held Tchanzu area of North Kivu after the M23 captured settlements along a key highway to Goma. The M23 claimed that the DRC government had shelled "heavily populated areas" and accused Kinshasa of undermining negotiation talks.
Pro-establishment narrative
Ten years ago, Rwanda attempted to invade the DRC using the M23, and now they're trying again. That Kinshasa is using proxies to fight the M23 and retaliate against Rwanda is an unproven claim by Kigali to deflect attention from its responsibility for the violence in eastern Congo exposed by the UN. Kigali's destabilization of the region is about plundering the resources of eastern Congo and strengthening its position of power.
Establishment-critical narrative
It's evident that by expelling the Rwandan ambassador and making baseless accusations of Rwandan backing for the M23, Kinshasa is only trying to distract attention from its inability to pacify the eastern DRC. Kinshasa and the biased MONUSCO act as if there weren't well over 100 rebel groups other than M23. To achieve peace, Kinshasa must first acknowledge its responsibility for violence and displacement.
Cynical narrative
Since the UN has maintained a "peacekeeping mission" in eastern Congo for more than twenty years but has made no significant contribution to pacification, the question arises as to what interests the UN is serving in the exceptionally mineral-rich region. Distrust is heightened by the West's tacit support for Kigali and the British refugee deal with Rwanda. In a post-colonial world, the so-called "international community" should finally begin to take the region's distrust of blue helmets seriously.
Day 259 Roundup: Fighting Intensifies in Kherson; Grain Deal in Question
According to multiple reports on Wednesday, fighting has intensified in the southern region of Kherson. Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-appointed deputy governor of Kherson, said Ukrainian attacks came in "quite large columns" in three directions and alleged that "several hundred" advancing troops were killed. Stremousov was later reportedly killed in an unrelated car crash on Wednesday.
According to a Ukrainian military account from Operational Command South, Russia lost 55 soldiers, four tanks, and a number of other weapons in Ukrainian strikes. Kyiv also claimed to have destroyed two ammunition depots. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian reports of military losses could be independently confirmed. According to Russian state media, Russian forces have been ordered to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson.
Pro-establishment narrative
Russia is weaponizing food insecurity at a cost to innocent people in Africa and the Middle East. This is an inhumane violation of human rights that is utterly unacceptable on the world stage. The West must do something about how easily the Kremlin can unilaterally break treaties.
Pro-Russia narrative
It is Western nations that are undermining this agreement. Russia — a key global supplier of fertilizer and other foodstuffs — hasn't seen sufficient evidence of progress in implementing the Russian parts of the deal, namely the easing of sanctions on Russian food exports. Why should it return to the deal if its terms aren't being fairly implemented?
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of Kherson by Jan. 11, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Brittney Griner Moved to Russian Penal Colony
US basketball star Brittney Griner has been moved to a Russian penal colony to serve her sentence for drug possession and smuggling, her legal team has reported.
Griner was arrested at a Moscow airport on Feb. 17 — a week before Russia's invasion of Ukraine — after she was found with vape cartridges containing cannabis oil. She subsequently pleaded guilty and was sentenced to nine years imprisonment on Aug. 4.
Anti-Russia narrative
Regardless of how Russia wants to classify its holding of Griner, the US has made persistent advances to try to secure her release but there has been no cooperation from Moscow. Russia should stop playing games and negotiate for her and Whelan’s release.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia has no use for theatrics from the US and would only negotiate in a quiet setting out of the public eye. Nonetheless, Griner isn’t "wrongfully held" — she's incarcerated because she violated Russian law, and the punishment fits the crime.
Microsoft Faces Antitrust Complaint in Europe
On Wednesday, the European industry group Cloud Infrastructure Service Providers (CISPE) filed a complaint against Microsoft over its cloud computing practices with the European Commission.
CISPE, which features Amazon as a member, alleges that Microsoft uses its dominance in productivity software to direct customers in Europe to its Azure cloud service and makes it difficult for customers to switch to other providers.
Establishment-critical narrative
American Big Tech is harming EU consumers and businesses, and it's time the EU takes a stand. Microsoft is integrating its software deeper and deeper into its service and software portfolio, including Windows, making it almost impossible to compete.. Meanwhile, other tech giants like Google and Amazon are doing the same thing. European consumers should have a free choice, and competition should be fair.
Pro-establishment narrative
Under the guise of promoting competition, the European Commission has launched a full-scale assault on American companies, and this recent antitrust case is just the latest example. This self-destructive strategy will only hurt Europe's consumers and tech industry, which won't be able to fill the void left once the EU successfully severs the once-friendly ties between American businesses and the European market.
Nerd narrative
There is a 47% chance that a major cloud service will fail to provide service for a period of at least eight hours before March 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
COP27: China Ponders Climate Compensation Mechanism
Speaking at the COP27 climate conference in Egypt on Wednesday, China's climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said his nation would be willing to help create a mechanism to help poorer countries negatively impacted by climate change. However, he noted that China has no obligation to do so.
Xie's statement comes after China said it would halt all climate dialogue with the US in response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan in August. This development occurred despite a US-China deal at COP26 in Glasgow last year.
Pro-China narrative
Despite still being behind the US and Europe in its economic evolution, China has already decreased its annual energy intensity and carbon emissions. With developed countries still failing to fulfill their decade-old promise to contribute $100B per year to mitigation efforts, it's only reasonable to ask them to step up before calling on China to do more.
Anti-China narrative
As a nation supposedly in tune with global economic trends, China should be on board with the US in its plan to protect poor countries facing climate-related disasters. The PRC should break down its barriers to dialogue and come to the table. Beijing is a massive emitter of greenhouse gasses, but there are opportunities to discuss opportunities for global green energy investments to benefit all parties too.
Trump Warns DeSantis Against 2024 Presidential Bid
Speaking to Fox News, former US Pres. Donald Trump warned Ron DeSantis against running for president in 2024 just hours before the incumbent Florida governor secured his placement in a landslide victory in the US midterms on Tuesday.
Despite Trump, a Florida resident, voting for DeSantis, the former president claimed that he would reveal things about DeSantis that "won't be very flattering" and that if they ran against each other, he would "beat him like I would beat everyone else."
Democratic narrative
In a cheap, albeit unsurprising move, Trump is attacking anyone who is a potential threat, even if it means turning on one of his own. His warning shots to DeSantis only further polarize him from his own party and show that he's becoming nervous over his potential 2024 candidacy rival. This self-sabotage could very well compromise the two leader's 2024 campaign trail, and lead to a blue wave.
Republican narrative
In a largely disappointing evening for Republicans, Trump's lack of success has made it crystal clear that the 45th president no longer holds favor within the GOP. Although not a total bust, many now see DeSantis as the new de facto Republican leader as they look to reassess toward 2024.
Pro-Trump narrative
The narrative that DeSantis now leads the Republican Party is nonsense. While the Florida governor would be a good potential presidential candidate, Trump still stands tall, and his support has only grown.
Nerd narrative
There's a 30% chance that Ron DeSantis will become US president by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: UK Military Killed at Least 64 Afghan Children
The British Army paid compensation to the relatives of 64 children killed over nine years of military action in Afghanistan, according to the publication of a new investigation on Wednesday.
Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) — a London-based advocacy and research group — reportedly discovered the information through freedom of information requests. The figure is four times higher than UK forces had previously acknowledged.
Narrative A
These revelations should give pause for thought. Modern war will always bring civilian casualties, but this report sheds light on the often-forgotten child fatalities and sends a warning to Westminster politicians about the realities of conflict.
Narrative B
It's not enough to only avoid conflict; there also needs to be more transparency and accountability in investigating these types of incidents. In contrast to the UK, US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin recently ordered a major review of how the Pentagon investigates civilian casualties. Britain must follow this example and direct more resources toward the mitigation of harm to civilians.