09 November 2022

Daily Newsletter

US Midterms Results: Key Takeaways (Live)

Facts

  • Americans headed to the polls last week to decide the makeup of Congress in a heated election season, with Democrats warning of an alleged threat to American democracy by Republicans, while Republicans focused on the economy and crime.
  • Democrats have done better than anticipated by retaining control in the Senate, a result that will boost Pres. Joe Biden during the second half of his term.
  • In the closest New York governor's race since 1994, Republican Lee Zeldin — who tightened the race to within single digits ahead of election day — last Wednesday conceded defeat to Democrat incumbent Kathy Hochul. Hochul is the first woman to be elected governor of the state.
  • On Saturday, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto won her reelection bid in Nevada, securing the Democrats' a narrow Senate majority for the next two years. Meanwhile, Republicans have taken control of the House in this election cycle, and reached the 218-seat threshold needed to win a majority on Wednesday night. As of Thursday morning, the tally was 218-211.
  • Republican candidate JD Vance is projected to have beaten Tim Ryan in heavily contested Ohio, while Wisconsin Republican Ron Johnson is also projected to have won his race. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis has beaten Charlie Crist in Florida's governor race. Georgia's Senate race is still a toss-up, with incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker heading to a runoff.
  • The Pennsylvania US Senate race — which saw celebrity television physician Mehmet Oz face off against Lt. Gov. John Fetterman — is being called a victory for Democrat Fetterman by multiple outlets. Democrat Josh Shapiro also managed to win the state's gubernatorial race.

Spin

Republican narrative

Given the current rate of inflation and violent crime crisis, Republicans should have done better, but that doesn't mean there weren't bright spots. One of these was the landslide reelection of Ron DeSantis, and Florida's showcasing of how to run a smooth election. Whether they end up with a majority in the House, the GOP now has two years to take notes and figure out their 2024 game plan.

Democratic narrative

What DeSantis's win shows is that many Republicans throughout the country are still trying — and failing — to run their campaigns like Donald Trump. Election deniers like Doug Mastriano took huge defeats and up-and-coming progressives like John Fetterman had big wins, showing voters care far more about protecting democracy than the MAGA crowd thought.

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Hacker Demands $10M to Stop Leaking Australians’ Medical Records

Facts

  • After Medibank had refused to pay an undisclosed ransom, the hackers followed through on their threat to publish the stolen data. The company told customers, "Based on the extensive advice we have received from cybercrime experts, we believe there is only a limited chance paying a ransom would ensure the return of our customer's data and prevent it from being published."
  • Australian firms have recently suffered a string of data breaches. PM Anthony Albanese said the government is working with investigators on the cyber attack, stating: "This is really tough for people. I'm a Medibank private customer as well, and it will be of concern that some of this information has been put out there."
  • Early Thursday, the hacker published a message on the dark web asking Medibank to pay $1 for each of the 9.7M customer files that were stolen in last month's data breach.
  • The cybercriminal or criminal organization that stole sensitive records from one of Australia's largest healthcare companies demanded on Thursday roughly $10M to stop leaking the data, as they uploaded even more confidential details about customers.
  • The security incident has erased hundreds of millions of dollars from Medibank's market value. The company's share price plummeted over 20% since last month when the news of the leak first appeared.
  • This comes as they uploaded a second batch of files to a dark web forum with more sensitive details about hundreds of Medibank customers, who they've divided into "naughty" and "nice" lists, with the "naughty" label apparently pertaining to those who received treatment related to drug abuse, and sexually transmitted infections. On Thursday, one more file about abortions was added.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Unfortunately, this is the new world that we live in. The Medibank breach is a huge wake-up call that shows the need for an overhaul of information and privacy protection. From here on in, companies must be aware that they're under relentless cyber-attack. Australia's institutions are generally well prepared but can do even more to safeguard classified information.

Establishment-critical narrative

Cybersecurity isn't taken seriously enough in either the public or private sector. Most business leaders believe that their enterprises are safe from harm, but the truth is far less comforting. In a 2021 study, a staggering 63% of businesses said they had experienced a cyberattack. The hidden cost isn't the value of the stolen information but losing the customer's trust — and the impact that may have on the attacked company's share value.

Nerd narrative

There is a 41% chance the US executive branch will attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022, according to the Metaculus Prediction Community.

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Iranian Fuel Convoy Attacked on Syria-Iraq Border

Facts

  • According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, at least 15 people were killed in the strike — most of them belonging to Iranian-backed militias. Iranian media outlets claimed that the fuel was destined for Lebanon, but Syrian opposition media reported that targeted trucks also contained weapons.
  • An unidentified drone strike was reportedly conducted on an Iranian fuel convoy on Tuesday on the Syrian side of the Syria-Iraq border. Iraqi officials claimed that the convoy consisted of more than 20 tanker trucks, of which at least two were destroyed after entering the Qaim border crossing into Syria.
  • Iran has sent thousands of fighters to help Syrian troops during the country's decade-long civil war, backing President Bashar al-Assad. Both Tehran and Damascus are also allied with Lebanon-based Hezbollah, which denied involvement with the convoy.
  • It wasn't immediately clear who was behind the strikes, with Iran's state television accusing the US without offering any evidence. Israel and the US have targeted the area in the past, but the US military denied responsibility, and the Israeli army refused to comment.
  • Though Israel generally doesn't comment on its military actions in Syria, it has confirmed that it has carried out hundreds of strikes in the country — targeting both government positions and Iran-backed forces since the onset of the Syrian civil war.
  • Tit-for-tat attacks have been going on in recent years in Syria's eastern province of Deir Ezzor as Iranian-backed militias strengthen their presence, while both Israel and the US conduct military operations.

Spin

Anti-Iran narrative

Israel has been quite clear that it will not permit Iran to freely move weapons and fighters through Syria if it threatens Israeli security. If endangered, Israel will target Iranian assets in all of the countries into which Iran has dug its tentacles. Iran will continue to see strikes like this one if its aggression continues.

Pro-Iran narrative

As Iran tries to provide much-needed fuel to crisis-stricken Lebanon, the US shamelessly attacks its convoys. The Lebanese people are living in absolute desperation as oil prices continue to rise in a country suffering under extreme economic conditions. Unfortunately for Lebanon, US hegemony will never allow one of its geopolitical adversaries to provide aid to suffering civilians.

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DR Congo Jets Bomb M23 Rebels

Facts

  • Fighter jets from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) began bombing rebel positions on Tuesday, stepping up the fight against the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group, which recently made meaningful territorial gains in the country's war-torn eastern region.
  • Kinshasa accuses Kigali of backing the M23 and its recent offensive, which led the local UN peacekeeping mission (MONUSCO) to raise its "troop alert level." Earlier, in August, a UN report found that Kigali had directly supported the M23 — the currently most prominent of the numerous armed groups contributing to the region's destabilization.
  • Meanwhile, the Congolese army announced a general mobilization, saying it had begun training some 2K recruits in Goma after the M23 launched a new offensive and captured large swaths of new territory.
  • On Saturday, the DRC and Rwanda resumed talks in Angola that originally began in July to resolve rising tensions between the two governments over M23 attacks in eastern Congo.
  • Sukhoi-25 fighter jets reportedly attacked the rebel-held Tchanzu area of North Kivu after the M23 captured settlements along a key highway to Goma. The M23 claimed that the DRC government had shelled "heavily populated areas" and accused Kinshasa of undermining negotiation talks.
  • The M23, composed mainly of Congolese Tutsis, first emerged in 2012 but was pushed back by the government and UN forces. It resumed fighting in late 2021, claiming that Kinshasa had failed to honor a demobilization agreement that included integrating its fighters into the Congolese army.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Ten years ago, Rwanda attempted to invade the DRC using the M23, and now they're trying again. That Kinshasa is using proxies to fight the M23 and retaliate against Rwanda is an unproven claim by Kigali to deflect attention from its responsibility for the violence in eastern Congo exposed by the UN. Kigali's destabilization of the region is about plundering the resources of eastern Congo and strengthening its position of power.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's evident that by expelling the Rwandan ambassador and making baseless accusations of Rwandan backing for the M23, Kinshasa is only trying to distract attention from its inability to pacify the eastern DRC. Kinshasa and the biased MONUSCO act as if there weren't well over 100 rebel groups other than M23. To achieve peace, Kinshasa must first acknowledge its responsibility for violence and displacement.

Cynical narrative

Since the UN has maintained a "peacekeeping mission" in eastern Congo for more than twenty years but has made no significant contribution to pacification, the question arises as to what interests the UN is serving in the exceptionally mineral-rich region. Distrust is heightened by the West's tacit support for Kigali and the British refugee deal with Rwanda. In a post-colonial world, the so-called "international community" should finally begin to take the region's distrust of blue helmets seriously.

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Day 259 Roundup: Fighting Intensifies in Kherson; Grain Deal in Question

Facts

  • According to a Ukrainian military account from Operational Command South, Russia lost 55 soldiers, four tanks, and a number of other weapons in Ukrainian strikes. Kyiv also claimed to have destroyed two ammunition depots. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian reports of military losses could be independently confirmed. According to Russian state media, Russian forces have been ordered to withdraw from the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson.
  • According to multiple reports on Wednesday, fighting has intensified in the southern region of Kherson. Kirill Stremousov, the Russian-appointed deputy governor of Kherson, said Ukrainian attacks came in "quite large columns" in three directions and alleged that "several hundred" advancing troops were killed. Stremousov was later reportedly killed in an unrelated car crash on Wednesday.
  • Elsewhere, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday sent Ukraine's parliament — the Verkhovna Rada — two draft laws to extend the deadlines of mobilization and martial law. MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak told Ukrainian media that the bills would be approved at the next plenary session and that the measures would likely be extended to Feb. 19, 2023.
  • Heavy fighting also continued in the Donetsk region — namely near Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Vuhledar. Ukrainian officials reported that three civilians were killed and 11 were injured in Russian attacks, adding that the bodies of three civilians who'd been killed earlier were also discovered. Officials from the Donetsk People's Republic reported that two civilians were killed and two others were injured in Ukrainian attacks.
  • In addition, a Russian attack was reported in the city of Dnipro in Dnipropetrovsk where drones targeted the warehouses of a logistics business, setting off a large fire. Four injured employees were taken to hospital and three remain in critical condition, according to local officials. Nikopol and Marhanets in Dnipropetrovsk were also subject to attacks — there were no reports of civilian casualties at this stage.
  • Meanwhile, although Russia has returned to the grain deal brokered by Turkey and the UN, the agreement's future remains in question as Russian officials have continued to criticize the deal's implementation so far. Andrey Rudenko, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said: "We are very dissatisfied with how the Russian part is being implemented." The deal is set to expire on Nov. 18, but many nations are hopeful that it will be renewed.
  • Ukrainian officials further reported that one civilian was killed and one more was injured in Russian attacks in Ukrainian-held parts of Kherson.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia is weaponizing food insecurity at a cost to innocent people in Africa and the Middle East. This is an inhumane violation of human rights that is utterly unacceptable on the world stage. The West must do something about how easily the Kremlin can unilaterally break treaties.

Pro-Russia narrative

It is Western nations that are undermining this agreement. Russia — a key global supplier of fertilizer and other foodstuffs — hasn't seen sufficient evidence of progress in implementing the Russian parts of the deal, namely the easing of sanctions on Russian food exports. Why should it return to the deal if its terms aren't being fairly implemented?

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of Kherson by Jan. 11, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Brittney Griner Moved to Russian Penal Colony

Facts

  • At a hearing last month, judges rejected Griner's appeal. US officials consider her 9-year sentence as unlawful detention.
  • Griner was arrested at a Moscow airport on Feb. 17 — a week before Russia's invasion of Ukraine — after she was found with vape cartridges containing cannabis oil. She subsequently pleaded guilty and was sentenced to nine years imprisonment on Aug. 4.
  • Griner’s legal team said she left the detention center in Moscow on Nov. 4 and was being transported to an unspecified colony. They added they didn’t know her exact whereabouts or exactly where she was being taken.
  • Previously this year, the US proposed to swap Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout for Griner and former US contractor Paul Whelan, an American sentenced to 16 years in Russia for espionage. US officials are reportedly continuing to follow up on the offer.
  • US basketball star Brittney Griner has been moved to a Russian penal colony to serve her sentence for drug possession and smuggling, her legal team has reported.
  • White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated, "Every minute that Brittney Griner must endure wrongful detention in Russia is a minute too long." The statement also noted that the admin. is working “tirelessly” for her release.

Spin

Anti-Russia narrative

Regardless of how Russia wants to classify its holding of Griner, the US has made persistent advances to try to secure her release but there has been no cooperation from Moscow. Russia should stop playing games and negotiate for her and Whelan’s release.

Pro-Russia narrative

Russia has no use for theatrics from the US and would only negotiate in a quiet setting out of the public eye. Nonetheless, Griner isn’t "wrongfully held" — she's incarcerated because she violated Russian law, and the punishment fits the crime.

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Microsoft Faces Antitrust Complaint in Europe

Facts

  • A Microsoft spokesperson commented on the complaint, saying, “the licensing changes we introduced this October give customers and cloud providers around the world even more options for running and offering our software in the cloud."
  • CISPE, which features Amazon as a member, alleges that Microsoft uses its dominance in productivity software to direct customers in Europe to its Azure cloud service and makes it difficult for customers to switch to other providers.
  • On Wednesday, the European industry group Cloud Infrastructure Service Providers (CISPE) filed a complaint against Microsoft over its cloud computing practices with the European Commission.
  • The complaint also argues that Microsoft's new contractual terms implemented on Oct. 1, along with other practices, damage the European cloud computing ecosystem.
  • The EU Commission has fined Microsoft more than $1.6B over the last decade for antitrust violations.
  • This comes amid further antitrust concerns regarding the company's $69B bid for "Call of Duty" video game maker Activision Blizzard. The European Commission opened a probe into the acquisition on Tuesday, with a decision expected by March 2023.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

American Big Tech is harming EU consumers and businesses, and it's time the EU takes a stand. Microsoft is integrating its software deeper and deeper into its service and software portfolio, including Windows, making it almost impossible to compete.. Meanwhile, other tech giants like Google and Amazon are doing the same thing. European consumers should have a free choice, and competition should be fair.

Pro-establishment narrative

Under the guise of promoting competition, the European Commission has launched a full-scale assault on American companies, and this recent antitrust case is just the latest example. This self-destructive strategy will only hurt Europe's consumers and tech industry, which won't be able to fill the void left once the EU successfully severs the once-friendly ties between American businesses and the European market.

Nerd narrative

There is a 47% chance that a major cloud service will fail to provide service for a period of at least eight hours before March 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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COP27: China Ponders Climate Compensation Mechanism

Facts

  • A PRC delegation spokesperson later said that while Beijing is willing to "cooperate" with developing countries, they would not make a financial contribution. Xie added that China has already given hundreds of millions of dollars for such mitigation efforts.
  • China defended its stance by citing the World Trade Organization's designation of China — the world's second-largest economy — as a developing nation, also noting the damage the PRC has suffered from extreme weather. Xie also argued that it's China, not the US, who is open to talks.
  • Speaking at the COP27 climate conference in Egypt on Wednesday, China's climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said his nation would be willing to help create a mechanism to help poorer countries negatively impacted by climate change. However, he noted that China has no obligation to do so.
  • Though Kerry admitted negotiations aren't currently working properly, White House advisor John Podesta added that he believes China should include methane reduction as part of its pledge.
  • US special envoy John Kerry on Wednesday said China should support efforts financially, especially if Beijing plans on continuously increasing emissions. Xie called Kerry "his friend of 25 years" but claimed he never raised the issue with him in private talks.
  • Xie's statement comes after China said it would halt all climate dialogue with the US in response to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan in August. This development occurred despite a US-China deal at COP26 in Glasgow last year.

Spin

Pro-China narrative

Despite still being behind the US and Europe in its economic evolution, China has already decreased its annual energy intensity and carbon emissions. With developed countries still failing to fulfill their decade-old promise to contribute $100B per year to mitigation efforts, it's only reasonable to ask them to step up before calling on China to do more.

Anti-China narrative

As a nation supposedly in tune with global economic trends, China should be on board with the US in its plan to protect poor countries facing climate-related disasters. The PRC should break down its barriers to dialogue and come to the table. Beijing is a massive emitter of greenhouse gasses, but there are opportunities to discuss opportunities for global green energy investments to benefit all parties too.

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Trump Warns DeSantis Against 2024 Presidential Bid

Facts

  • DeSantis defeated Democrat gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist on Tuesday by nearly a 20% margin with 59% of the vote.
  • Despite Trump, a Florida resident, voting for DeSantis, the former president claimed that he would reveal things about DeSantis that "won't be very flattering" and that if they ran against each other, he would "beat him like I would beat everyone else."
  • Speaking to Fox News, former US Pres. Donald Trump warned Ron DeSantis against running for president in 2024 just hours before the incumbent Florida governor secured his placement in a landslide victory in the US midterms on Tuesday.
  • Trump had revealed at a rally in Dayton, Ohio, that he had a "major" announcement on Nov. 15, which many expect to be the launch of his third presidential run. While Trump stated DeSantis was a "fine guy" in his Fox News interview, he also claimed that if he ran, "he could hurt himself badly."
  • Trump's warnings follow his comments at a rally in Latrobe, Pa. this past weekend, where he referred to the Florida governor as "Ron DeSanctimonious" as he claimed he was "winning big" in the Republican Party's nomination polling.

Spin

Democratic narrative

In a cheap, albeit unsurprising move, Trump is attacking anyone who is a potential threat, even if it means turning on one of his own. His warning shots to DeSantis only further polarize him from his own party and show that he's becoming nervous over his potential 2024 candidacy rival. This self-sabotage could very well compromise the two leader's 2024 campaign trail, and lead to a blue wave.

Republican narrative

In a largely disappointing evening for Republicans, Trump's lack of success has made it crystal clear that the 45th president no longer holds favor within the GOP. Although not a total bust, many now see DeSantis as the new de facto Republican leader as they look to reassess toward 2024.

Pro-Trump narrative

The narrative that DeSantis now leads the Republican Party is nonsense. While the Florida governor would be a good potential presidential candidate, Trump still stands tall, and his support has only grown.

Nerd narrative

There's a 30% chance that Ron DeSantis will become US president by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Report: UK Military Killed at Least 64 Afghan Children

Facts

  • According to the analysis, between 2006 and 2014, the army compensated for 38 incidents involving 64 confirmed child fatalities. A one-year-old boy was reportedly the youngest recorded child killed.
  • Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) — a London-based advocacy and research group — reportedly discovered the information through freedom of information requests. The figure is four times higher than UK forces had previously acknowledged.
  • AOAV's research also revealed that the average compensation for each person killed was $1,894 (£1,656). The total amount paid — including for adult deaths — between 2006-2014 was $165,332 (£144,593), though the majority of the 881 claims brought to the Allied Commander Operations in those years were rejected.
  • In response to the investigation, an MOD spokesperson has said: "Any civilian death during conflict is a tragedy, more so when children and family members are involved. The UK Armed Forces works hard to minimise [sic] that risk, which regrettably can never be entirely eliminated."
  • The British Army paid compensation to the relatives of 64 children killed over nine years of military action in Afghanistan, according to the publication of a new investigation on Wednesday.
  • The total figure of under-18s killed could be significantly higher, as documents from the Ministry of Defense (MOD) listed 135 fatalities in the period, often without detailing their age or circumstances around their death. Among the most common causes of death were airstrikes and being caught in the crossfire.

Spin

Narrative A

These revelations should give pause for thought. Modern war will always bring civilian casualties, but this report sheds light on the often-forgotten child fatalities and sends a warning to Westminster politicians about the realities of conflict.

Narrative B

It's not enough to only avoid conflict; there also needs to be more transparency and accountability in investigating these types of incidents. In contrast to the UK, US Defense Sec. Lloyd Austin recently ordered a major review of how the Pentagon investigates civilian casualties. Britain must follow this example and direct more resources toward the mitigation of harm to civilians.

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