08 November 2022

Daily Newsletter

UN Begins Hearings on Alleged Israeli Human Rights Abuses

The Facts

  • A UN independent commission of inquiry (COI) on Monday began five days of public hearings in Geneva regarding alleged human rights violations against Palestinians. Day one concentrated on Israel's banning of multiple Palestinian rights organizations in 2021.

  • The commission, established by the Human Rights Council, says it will be impartial and will examine allegations from both Israelis and Palestinians, though Israel dismissed the process as a sham trial. The US has also accused the UN of having a "chronic bias" against Israel.


The Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

While the Israeli occupiers have and will continue to label these hearings as a "sham," history and the UN's past investigations highlight Israel's long record of killing and criminalizing Palestinians. Israel's opposition to such hearings is also absurd given that the commission has no power to punish it for its crimes against Palestinians.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel appears in UN condemnation reports exponentially more often than the words Palestine, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Iran combined. Despite the reality that those groups continue their terror campaigns against Israel and the free world, the UN has decided to waste time and resources to hold another kangaroo court.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by November 2065, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Announces Seizure of $3.36B in Stolen Bitcoin

Photo: cnbc

The Facts

  • The US Dept. of Justice on Monday announced a historic seizure of bitcoin stolen nearly a decade ago from the Silk Road dark web marketplace, along with the conviction of the man responsible for the theft.

  • According to the announcement, authorities raided James Zhong's house in Georgia last year and seized over 50K bitcoin (worth more than $3.36B USD at the time) that was hidden in an underground floor safe and in a circuit board concealed in the bottom of a popcorn tin.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This record seizure, and the arrest of Zhong, are indications of the progress being made by US authorities in the fight against cybercrime, particularly in the recovery of illicitly gained cryptocurrency. This case is yet another notch in the belt for IRS Criminal Investigations, which continue to find multi-billion dollar troves of stolen cryptocurrencies and disrupt dark web markets.

Establishment-critical narrative

Why did it take authorities almost a decade to track down such a large sum of stolen currency? If this money had been hard cash, the FBI would've put significantly more effort into tracking down Zhong and recovering the stolen funds. It's certainly a success that the Bitcoin was finally recovered, but the time that it took to achieve indicates alarming gaps in the FBI's approach to fighting cybercrime.

Nerd narrative

There is an 8% chance that at least one person will be convicted for the possession of Bitcoin in the US before 2060, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Judge Suspends NY Gun Restrictions

Photo: newsbud

The Facts

  • On Monday, New York federal Judge Glenn Suddaby temporarily suspended features of the state's newest gun restrictions, allowing six gun advocates to continue their lawsuit challenging the law's constitutionality.

  • Judge Suddaby suspended the parts of the Concealed Carry Improvement Act — which took effect on Sept. 1 — mandating that gun license applicants demonstrate "good moral character" and disclose both the handles of their social media accounts and the contact details of those with whom they live.


The Spin

Democratic narrative

This dangerous ruling undermines modest and common-sense gun restrictions in New York. The newly passed prevention measures are intended to keep communities safe — Suddaby's misinterpretation of the law ignores the realities of the threat of gun violence in New York today.

Republican narrative

This is a win for liberty and a loss for tyranny. Left-wing policies attempting to disarm state citizens are only escalating the dangers everyday New Yorkers face during a surge in crime. Gun sales increase because of crime, not the other way around, and the sooner we understand this and tackle the underlying cause of violence, the safer America will be.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that there will be 1.38 small firearms per capita by 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community

See sources

Day 258 Roundup: US and Russia Officials Confirm High-Level Talks; Zelenskyy Restates Conditions for Peace

The Facts

  • Amid reports that US and Russia officials have restarted high-level talks in recent weeks, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday that the US has, "channels to communicate with the Russian Federation at senior levels." He didn't say whether he'd been directly engaged in the dialogue.

  • Sullivan continued: "We have done so when it's been necessary to clarify potential misunderstandings and try to reduce risk and reduce the possibility of catastrophe like the potential use of nuclear weapons." Despite of his reticence, a source confirmed to Reuters he was involved in the talks.


The Spin

Narrative A

If Ukraine autonomously decides to seek negotiations, such talks should come from a position of strength. Now is not the right time to meet with Putin, particularly as negotiations could deflate Ukrainian morale ahead of a major offensive.

Narrative B

A sober analysis shows that Ukraine is unlikely to drive Russian troops from all its territory and, the longer this war goes on, the worse it will get for Ukraine. The Biden administration has a duty to try and bring about a peaceful resolution to the war, as extending the conflict will only increase the chances of a hot war between Russia, the US, and NATO.

Nerd narrative

There is a 2% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Algeria Officially Applies For BRICS Membership

Photo: newsweek

The Facts

  • Algeria on Monday submitted a formal bid to join the "BRICS" bloc of emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — a move aimed at diversifying the country's trade relations. The application was praised by Beijing and Moscow.

  • The request was reportedly confirmed by the Algerian Foreign Ministry official Leyla Zarruki, who argued that the North African country has completed all required measures to join the economic alliance.


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The fact that Algeria — Africa's largest gas exporter — now also wants to join BRICS underscores the alliance's increasing economic significance and the Algerian government's foresight. In times of increasing economic uncertainty, and a "rules-based world order" serving Western interests alone, BRICS catalyzes a multipolar order through increasing economic integration among the countries of the global South.

Pro-establishment narrative

BRICS has so far failed to live up to the high expectations of emancipation from the Western-dominated world order. It's unlikely that Algeria or Saudi Arabia joining the bloc will change the marginal role BRICS has so far played in world politics for now. Too diverse are the political and economic systems, and too small is the intersection of common values. The Ukraine war and China's dominance are also causing friction — but the West still must keep an eye on this group.

See sources

COP27: Pakistan 'Victim' of Climate Change, Calls for Reparations

Photo: Dawn

The Facts

  • At the COP27 summit, Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif stated on Tuesday that the devastating floods that have hit his country were a "manmade disaster," underscoring that Pakistan is a victim of climate change despite its low carbon footprint.

  • He also urged high-income countries to compensate poorer, vulnerable nations affected by climate change, adding that damages and losses caused by floods in Pakistan now stand at over $30B.


The Spin

Narrative A

Though the poorest countries are responsible for only 1.1% of global CO2 emissions, they're the ones most affected by climate change, which has hit them with great destruction due to their inability to adapt quickly enough to respond to disasters. High-income nations have a moral imperative to fund climate disaster support and help stabilize the most vulnerable economies.

Narrative B

There's no question that rich countries must take action to find solutions to the climate change problem that they've largely caused, but creating a specific fund for loss and damage reparations might prove troublesome. This new structure would make them liable to pay for any damage provoked by natural disasters in developing countries, climate change-related or not.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century will be 8.84% of world GDP, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

US Midterms: Voters Head to the Polls

Photo: wsj

The Facts

  • With all 435 seats in the House, one-third of the Senate, and 36 out of 50 state governors' offices up for grabs, Pres. Biden predicts Democrats will "surprise the living devil out of a lot of people," while Republicans aim to take back majorities in the House and Senate, and gain key new governorships, as voters headed to the polls on Tuesday.

  • According to the University of Florida's "US Elections Project," more than 41M votes have already been cast, either through mail-in ballots or early in-person polls. A Gallup poll also found that 54% of Democrats said they would vote early, compared with 32% of Republicans. Meanwhile, early exit poll data shows that abortion policy and inflation are the top issues driving voters to the polls.


The Spin

Republican narrative

Election day is a day when every American can use their vote to send a message to those in power. The message Americans will send today is that they still care about the Bill of Rights, freedom, and overall common sense — especially crime and inflation. An inevitable "red wave" will make the woke left despondent when the midterm results pour in.

Democratic narrative

The future of American democracy truly is on the line this election, and there's nothing wrong with framing it this way. MAGA Republicans have talked openly about what they'll do if they get back the majority, including stripping away voting, reproductive, and economic rights. Voting for Democrats means voting for Democracy and sustaining hard-fought gains.

See sources

Oath Keepers Founder Denies Ordering Capitol Breach

Photo: cnn

The Facts

  • Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes on Monday testified in his seditious conspiracy trial — a charge that holds a 20-year maximum prison sentence. He claimed that he never ordered members to enter the US Capitol during the Jan. 6 riots, saying it was “stupid" for those who did so.

  • Rhodes and four other Oath Keepers members — Thomas Caldwell, Kenneth Harrelson, Kelly Meggs, and Jessica Watkins — face charges of organizing an effort to violently prevent the certification of the 2020 election and stockpiling weapons at a nearby hotel.


The Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

It would’ve made no sense for Rhodes to order the Oath Keepers to enter the Capitol. After all, he had warned them to avoid the type of attention that would get them persecuted by their political enemies. They were in DC to simply protect a few very important persons, but a couple of rogue members went into the Capitol of their own volition.

Democratic narrative

Considering prosecutors have been able to use his texts against him, it's absurd that Rhodes is trying to avoid responsibility for what the Oath Keepers did on Jan. 6. In those messages he referred to bringing rifles if Trump wouldn’t call on the military, targeting high-profile officials, and authorizing a "quick reaction force" that was positioned at a nearby hotel.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that 16 or more people will be charged by the US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6th Capital riots, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

See sources

Nvidia Offers Processor for Chinese Market That Meets US Controls

The Facts

  • US-based computer chip manufacturer Nvidia Corp. confirmed on Monday that it's offering a new advanced graphic processing unit for the Chinese market that satisfies export controls imposed by the US government in October.

  • The confirmation follows a report by Reuters that Chinese companies were advertising their latest products with Nvidia’s new A800 graphics processing unit (GPU).


The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

US sanctions are designed to contain China as a rival economic power, but they may well end up backfiring due to the interconnected nature of the global economy. This aggressive global peer competition may even end up triggering a war that would likely envelope many other countries. At best, sanctions will merely postpone Chinese rise as a peer military and economic power, but not prevent its emergence.

Pro-establishment narrative

Beijing is to blame for the shift in US policy. As Xi Jinping has called for a world-class military to tip East Asia’s balance of power in China’s favor and seeks to become technologically self-sufficient, it would be foolish for him not to expect the US to use its leverage to try and counter these attempts.

See sources

Greece To Ban Spyware Amid Phone-Tapping Scandal

The Facts

  • The Greek government is set to ban the sale of all spyware in the country amid an ongoing scandal over alleged phone tapping. Greece's PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis has repeatedly denied claims that he's behind any illicit surveillance, but the government has confessed to legal wiretapping practices.

  • On Monday, Mitsotakis said: "We will be the first country to tackle this problem and enact legislation that will explicitly ban the sale of such software in our country." He also stated, "all countries have the same problem."


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

There's no evidence to substantiate these politically motivated allegations and nothing at all to connect them with the PM. It's a poor reflection on the state of Greek politics that professional extortionists are accusing the leader of the country of illicit surveillance of his own ministers.

Establishment-critical narrative

Mitsotakis' refusal to address these allegations head-on is casting a cloud over the future of Greek democracy. For events like these to potentially have been ordered by government leaders is undemocratic and illegal. Furthermore, the failure of Greek media to adequately cover this scandal is disgraceful. These allegations demand resolution through independent inquiry and the PM himself.

Cynical narrative

Even if Greece resolves this issue domestically, the problem of spyware and illicit surveillance is prevalent throughout Europe. Many countries, including the UK, France, Poland, Spain, and Hungary, have all been shaken by similar controversies. Although a ban on the sale of spyware would be a positive step, it will be far from the end of the story.

See sources

Sign up to our daily newsletter