Iran: Attorney General Signals Morality Police to be Disbanded
Iranian Attorney General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri reportedly announced on Saturday that Iran's so-called morality police, the Gasht-e Ershad, is being disbanded. In September, the arrest of Mahsa Amini for allegedly violating the country’s mandatory dress code for women, and her subsequent death in police custody, led to persistent protests against the Iranian government.
Referring to Iran's Interior Ministry, the authority in charge of the morality police, Montazeri said that "the same authority which has established this police has shut it down," according to Iranian media reports. Meanwhile, Iranian protesters on Sunday called for a three-day strike this week over Amini's death.
Pro-establishment narrative
The despotic Iranian regime is finally bowing to pressure from the brave protesters.The potential disbandment of the morality police is an unprecedented move and, as the first major policy reversal from the government, it is a testament to the effectiveness and power of the protests. The demise of the state-enforced hijab would be a resounding victory for the women of Iran.
Establishment-critical narrative
A credulous western media has taken the remarks of a government official out of context once again. The Attorney General does not have authority over the morality police, and continues to express his support for the dress code. Reporting has continued to undermine Iran by supporting the violent protests and engaging in information warfare by distorting the facts at hand.
Nerd narrative
There is a 62% chance the morality police is disbanded by 2024, according to the Metaculus community prediction.
Southern Syria: Anti-Gov't Protest Turns Deadly
Dozens of angry protesters chanting anti-government slogans stormed the governor’s office in the southern Syrian city of Suwayda on Sunday and set fire to parts of the building amid a heavy exchange of gunfire, the authorities and witnesses reported.
A protester and a police officer were allegedly killed, according to both independent and state media. It's unclear who shot first, as local independent media has reported that security forces fired into the crowd.
Narrative A
Though it has been almost 12 years since the onset of the Syrian revolution, Syrians from all walks of life continue to demand freedom and dignity. Meanwhile, the Assad regime has only become more authoritarian and barbaric, killing hundreds of thousands and destroying its own country just to stay in power. As Syria's financial condition worsens and the state fails to provide basic amenities, such protests will only escalate. Assad's grip on power is hanging by a thread.
Narrative B
It would be dangerous to call the criminal gangs sabotaging the region protesters. These armed thugs have become professionals in all illegal activities, including drug trade and kidnappings, and seek to destabilize an already insecure region of Syria. Though the government has chosen to take a hands-off approach in Suwayda, it cannot allow outlaws to run wild, killing civilians and members of the security forces with abandon.
Chinese Astronauts Return to Earth
On Sunday, three Chinese astronauts returned to Earth after six months aboard China’s new space station, the Tiangong, or "Heavenly Palace." China's space agency declared the mission a "complete success.”
Commander Chen Dong, and teammates Liu Yang and Cai Xuzhe, said they felt well after landing at the Dongfeng site in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous region. Their mission was to oversee the final construction of the space station, which they completed in November.
Pro-China narrative
With the completion of Tiangong, Beijing's space program is now an equal player with the US, Russia, and Europe. In terms of scientific and commercial aspects, the addition of new players will only have a positive impact, given that competition inevitably speeds up innovation. This is a win for everyone.
Anti-China narrative
The more China prioritizes space, the more of a problem it becomes for US national security. Beijing's recent significant advances in space technology are alarming to the US and its allies because whoever leads in space sets the rules. Besides, China has teamed up with Russia for a slate of space missions and initiatives. This must be monitored.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that China will land the next person on the Moon, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 285 Roundup: Multiple Blasts at Russian Airfields; 8M Ukrainians to Live Below Poverty Line by Year's End
On Monday, for the first time in nine months of war, multiple blasts were reported deep in Russian territory. While Ukrainian attacks have routinely targeted munition depots and fuel tankers in the Russian border regions of Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod, Monday's blasts were reported hundreds of miles within Russia's borders.
One blast was reported at the Dyagilyaevo airfield in the region of Ryazan where a fuel tanker reportedly exploded, killing three people and injuring six others. The second struck the Engels airfield in the Saratov region, reportedly damaging two Tupolev Tu-95 bomber jets. An unspecified number of servicemen were said to be injured. Both attacks are suspected to have been carried out with drones, though this is yet to be confirmed.
Narrative A
As the winter months continue to set in, the tempo of fighting will reduce. Both Russia and Ukraine will use the opportunity of the coming Winter months to replenish their armies before the commencement of further offensives in the spring.
Narrative B
Winter will not see a decline in this conflict, as frozen ground enables heavy vehicles, previously restricted by the autumn mud, to advance. Ukrainian forces will not pause fighting, as such cessation would enable Russian troops to restrengthen. All indicators point to offensives ramping up in the cold weather.
Narrative C
As winter arrives and temperatures continue to plunge, the most important question is not that of the relative strategic advantage of fighting in winter months. The key to this conflict will become which force has better morale and is best equipped to fight effectively in the bitter weather.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that there will be at least 7.78M internally displaced Ukrainians by the end of 2022 (based on UN estimations), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Ga. Senate Candidates Make Last Pitch Before Runoff
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker made their final pitches to voters on Sunday, two days before the Dec. 6 US Senate runoff. More than 1.85M Georgians have already cast their votes during early voting.
Warnock, a pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, used his time at the pulpit Sunday to remind his parishioners to vote, and joked that they have a choice between two candidates whose "last name starts with W."
Republican narrative
Warnock’s record as a senator proves he doesn’t care about Georgians’ economic well-being or their safety. His votes will cost taxpayers, who will be easier targets for IRS agents, more of their money. And the state will be less safe because of his vote to reject adding more Border Patrol agents. Walker is offering Georgians relief from government theft.
Democratic narrative
There’s a long list of reasons not to vote for Walker. He supports restrictions on abortion access, places the rights of gun owners over safety, and might not even be a resident of Georgia. Warnock cares about what Georgians care about, and the same most certainly cannot be said for Walker.
Nerd narrative
There's an 80% chance that Raphael Warnock will defeat Herschel Walker in the 2022 Georgia senate runoff, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
SCOTUS Hears Challenge to Colo. Anti-Discrimination Act
The US Supreme Court on Monday heard oral arguments in a case involving Denver-based web designer Lorie Smith. A conservative evangelical Christian, Smith is seeking an exemption from Colorado's Anti-Discrimination Act in relation to taking on LGBTQ customers.
Smith contends that the right to free speech enshrined under the US Constitution's First Amendment exempts artists – including web designers – from anti-discrimination laws, and that Colorado's law forces her to undertake work that conflicts with her religious beliefs.
Left narrative
A ruling endorsing Smith's free speech arguments, intentionally or not, could lead to widespread discrimination against the LGBTQ community and undermine the entire purpose of anti-discrimination laws. If the conservative "artists" are granted a license to discriminate, they would be free to propagate bigotry and even legally hang out signs in the future that refuse to serve Muslims, African Americans, or women.
Right narrative
Should Smith, who serves LGBTQ clients in other areas, be imprisoned for her refusal to work against her religious beliefs? Denying Colorado artists the right to choose their customers could affect the fabric of the US's free and diverse society. The First Amendment doesn't give the state the power to coerce its citizens to renounce their religious beliefs in favor of views they don't agree with.
Nerd narrative
There's a 21% chance that an openly LGBTQ person will be elected President of the United States by 2041, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK Economy to Shrink in 2023, Risks 'Lost Decade' Without Action, Says CBI
The UK’s economy is expected to shrink by 0.4% in 2023, the Confederation of Business Industry (CBI) forecast on Monday.
A combination of inflation and economic stagnation — known as stagflation — is the primary reason the business lobby group expects the UK economy to continue to contract. It believes the conditions could lead to a “lost decade of growth.”
Right narrative
While last month’s announcement of £55B in spending cuts was necessary to stabilize the economy, it won’t encourage growth. The government must stimulate investment with substantial tax breaks for businesses that spend domestically, bring the UK closer to the EU by finalizing a proper deal over Northern Ireland, and address the shrinking workforce. Only achieving this clear criteria will boost growth and avoid a severe economic downturn.
Left narrative
The government’s latest round of tax raises and spending cuts are a massive assault on low- and middle-income families. The UK economy has already been severely damaged by 12 years of austerity, the destruction of public services, unrestrained corporate profiteering resulting in a 14.2% rate of inflation, and labor shortages caused by Brexit and related xenophobia. The UK needs a new direction away from the continued assault on consumer, worker, and environmental protections.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the UK's annual inflation rate will be at least 5.34% in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Musk Releases 'Twitter Files' on Suppression of Hunter Biden Story
On Friday, Twitter owner Elon Musk released the “Twitter Files,” a series of internal communications, through journalist Matt Taibbi. The previously unseen files appear to show Twitter employees cooperating with efforts to suppress the New York Post’s story on Hunter Biden’s laptop in the fall of 2020.
The focal point of the communications was the Post story, which claimed the paper had access to Hunter Biden’s personal laptop, and could connect Pres. Joe Biden and his son to dubious dealings with a Ukrainian energy company.
Republican narrative
Pre-Musk Twitter was clearly biased against Republicans, frequently bowing to requests from the Biden campaign to take down tweets and accounts it didn’t like. The suppression of the Hunter Biden story, which strongly affected the 2020 election, was particularly egregious, considering it proved to be legitimate. This might be just the tip of the iceberg considering Musk’s promise of more releases soon.
Democratic narrative
These communications simply reinforce what we already knew about Twitter’s difficult decision to limit distribution of the laptop story. Beyond the laptop story, there’s no proof Twitter’s content moderation favored Democrats or Republicans, who each made numerous requests to the platform. Despite claims from both Musk and Republicans, there was no evidence the FBI ever leaned on Twitter. Musk’s big reveal was a big bust.
Secret Service: Chinese Hackers Stole Millions in COVID Relief Money
In the US's first reported case of foreign state-sponsored pandemic fraud, the US Secret Service (USSS) has alleged that Chinese state-sponsored hacker group APT41 stole at least $20M in government COVID relief funds.
Five APT41 members that stand accused of stealing taxpayer funds from Small Business Administration loans and unemployment insurance funds from more than 12 states have been indicted on federal charges, but not extradited to the US. They remain at-large.
Anti-China narrative
This tells us that the Chinese government not only condones but works alongside these hackers as they infiltrate US economic relief programs and steal taxpayer dollars. The Secret Service and DOJ have rightly been combatting groups like APT41 for years and must continue to take action against and build measures to prevent such deplorable schemes.
Pro-China narrative
The US for years has claimed that the Chinese government supports cyberattacks, without providing a shred of evidence. This is just the latest example of Washington's smear campaign against China in an attempt to bully Beijing and maintain its global hegemony.
Establishment-critical narrative
This is no surprise given that the government handed out more than $800B in COVID funds with zero checks and balances, essentially providing an open invitation to fraudsters and criminals. Coupled with the government's awareness of past Chinese hackers' attempts to steal from relief programs, American taxpayers could understandably believe their government doesn't actually care about safeguarding their hard-earned money.
"Targeted" Attack on Power Grid Leaves NC County in the Dark
On Sunday, authorities announced that at least 40k people in Moore County, NC, were left without power after two power substations were damaged by gunfire. Duke Energy, the power supplier, said that power may not be fully restored until as late as Thursday.
County Sheriff Ronnie Fields said a suspect(s) breached security fencing and opened fire, disabling the facilities and causing the outages. The County declared a state of emergency and imposed a 9 pm to 5 am curfew, also closing schools on Monday and creating a shelter for residents who require electricity for medical equipment or heating.
Narrative A
It would be foolish for authorities not to look into a local right-wing group that celebrated news of the attack. The founder of the Moore County Citizens for Freedom, whose members are known to have attended the January 6 riots, applauded the power outage as an act of God to stop the local drag show. These extremists must be investigated.
Narrative B
Instead of pointing fingers while the investigation is still ongoing, more must be done to put preventative measures in place. Though rare, attacks like this show how vulnerable power grids still are in the US. The government must focus on building walls so gunmen can't aim directly at transformers and circuit breakers, and establishing a national response so that state and local authorities aren't left alone when their jurisdictions are attacked.
India Will Continue to Buy Russian Oil Despite G7 Price Cap
India’s Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar signaled on Monday that the country will put its energy needs above pressure from Western governments, and continue to buy oil from Russia.
Jaishankar also provided Moscow with a list of products available for trade with India in order to narrow the trade deficit between the countries. Russia is India’s largest supplier of oil and India is looking to rebalance its trade, while Moscow is suffering from acute shortages of materials amid Western sanctions.
Pro-establishment narrative
India continues to sit on the fence and tacitly support Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine. As other countries look to reduce the amount of oil they buy from Russia, India has increased its imports ten-fold since Putin’s invasion. India is putting profit above a principled and necessary show of opposition to Putin's attempted imperialist expansion.
Establishment-critical narrative
India is a sovereign nation that will continue to put its energy needs ahead of G7 demands. While India respects other countries’ decisions to implement sanctions, it must work to provide the necessary energy to its people. New Delhi will not bend its knee to hypocritical countries that import more Russian oil than India does.
Nerd narrative
There is a 98% chance that Russia will be the most sanctioned country in the world by February 22, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.