More Than a Third of US Plants, Animals at Risk of Extinction
According to a report released on Monday, 40% of animals and 34% of plants in the US are at risk of extinction, while 41% of ecosystems are facing collapse. The conservation research group behind the publication said the most at-risk species include snails, amphibians, and freshwater mussels.
NatureServe, which receives and analyzes data from more than 1K scientists in its US and Canadian networks, has compiled a database of ecological information since the 1960s on the health of animals, plants, and ecosystems.
The areas of the US with the highest percentages of species at risk — California, Texas, and the southeastern US — are those in which human population growth and urbanization are booming.
Narrative A
The conclusions of the report are a terrifying call to action. The data shows the need for the public to help prevent the disappearance of many of our plant species and act to counter threats to biodiversity including habitat degradation and land conversion, invasive species, pollution of rivers, and climate change. The report can help lawmakers understand the urgency of passing protection, such as the Recovering America's Wildlife Act.
Narrative B
While this data is alarming and more must certainly be done to protect our plants and animals, this latest report should be taken with a grain of salt. Extinction rates are notoriously difficult to predict accurately, and doomsayers have warned of mass extinction for decades. There seems to be a general trend of over-exaggerating in the face of uncertainty, and why would this time be any different?
Narrative C
Democracy is about compromise, but the urgency of climate change waits for no one. The structural mismatch of democratic systems with the urgency of the rapidly altering environment is clear domestically in the US, but is most evident internationally, when nations with diverse political and social aims struggle to agree on a cooperative course of action. Inaction on these issues is not necessarily the fault of politicians, but the fundamentally flawed nature of democratic systems in their current form.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that there will be a successful attempt at cloning the full, functional genome of a species extinct for more than 1,000 years by 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Polls Show Low Enthusiasm for Biden 2024 Campaign
A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that just 37% of Democrats want Pres. Joe Biden to seek a second term, a drop from the 52% who said they supported him running again in a poll taken just after last year's midterms.
Biden’s approval rating in this latest poll stood at 41% — similar to his approval at the end of 2022 — and it showed that a majority of Democrats approve of the president’s work. However, among all Americans, just 22% said he should run for re-election.
Most of the decline in those supporting a Biden run in 2024 came among the younger demographic, with 49% of Democrats 45 and older saying he should run again, in contrast to just 23% of those under 45.
Republican narrative
Americans are right to be lukewarm about Biden’s performance. A Biden 2024 run would force the democratic leader to answer for his age and mental capacity, as well as Kamala Harris’ poor performance as vice president, his own classified documents scandal, and the seemingly nonstop controversy surrounding his son, Hunter. Biden would also have to take responsibility for a slow economic recovery that might be hindered further by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate raising, while ordinary Americans continue to face rising prices.
Democratic narrative
Tribalism and negative media spin will always keep Biden's approval rating artificially low. The most important thing to consider in the context of a potential 2024 campaign is economic recovery, seen most recently in the jobs report. The predicted recession has yet to arrive and, if the economy stays on track, current successes will give Biden the kind of popularity among voters that would see him elected to the White House for a second term.
Nerd narrative
There is a 62% chance that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Kenya: Judge Rules Meta Can be Sued by Ex-Moderator
A Kenyan labor court on Monday ruled that Meta, Facebook's parent company, can be sued in the country after a former content moderator filed a lawsuit citing unsuitable working conditions.
Daniel Motaung, a former employee of the content moderation company Sama — which Meta contracted out to review content — claims he was paid $2.20 an hour to review posts whose content included beheadings and child abuse.
Motaung claims the content he was exposed to, which included rape and torture, damaged his and his colleagues' mental health. He claimed that Meta didn't offer mental health resources, demanded long hours, and paid little.
Establishment-critical narrative
Meta outsources its gruesome content moderation services to faraway countries so that it doesn't have to deal with the consequences. It's high time for the tech giant to provide the workers it treated inhumanely with the same pay and mental health resources it gives to its employees in the US. Motaung was fired after trying to unionize and call for better treatment, so this isn't just about Meta utilizing the lower average wages in third-world countries.
Pro-establishment narrative
Though the common trope is that large companies outsource to other countries to benefit from exploitive labor, the truth is that the wages being paid are almost always at or above the average wage in those nations. When compared to the alternative job opportunities outsourced workers have, it's rarely better than what a US corporation is offering.
Antibiotic Use in Farming to Climb Amid Fears of Drug-Resistance
A study published in PLOS Global Public Health 3 has found that the use of antibiotics in animal farming is forecast to climb 8% between 2020 and 2030. Overuse of antibiotics in animals is believed to cause an increase in antibiotic resistance in humans, in turn causing a rise in untreatable bacterial infections.
The study predicted that, by the end of the decade, more than 107K tons of antimicrobial drugs will be used to prevent or treat fungal, bacterial, viral, and parasitical infections in farm animals.
Epidemiologists Thomas Van Boeckel and Ranya Mulchandani of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich) worked to collect data from 229 countries, finding that "the majority of data on antibiotic use in the world is unusable." Extrapolated data revealed that, while China uses the most antibiotics in farming, Pakistan is expected to have the largest growth in use in the ten-year period to 2030.
Pro-establishment narrative
While a range of factors have led to antibiotic drug resistance in humans, the FDA has stepped up to curb the overuse of antibiotics in farm animals specifically. The American Society of Microbiology applauds these safeguards as an initial step in the fight. There will always be more work to be done, and there will always be critics of the government's actions, but change always has to start somewhere and progress is being made.
Establishment-critical narrative
The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has known for decades that the methods of the meat industry create problems for Americans. It wasn't until the 2010s that the FDA tried to get a handle on the problem by requiring prescriptions for antibiotics — a step that European agencies had approved decades earlier. Public health experts are right to demand the FDA be more aggressive in the fight against this dangerous overuse if we are to see a reduction in untreatable infections that put people's lives at risk.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that at least 70,000 will die annually in the US as a result of antibiotic-resistant infections before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 349: Fighting Intensifies in East as Russia Prepares for Possible Offensive
Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, said on Tuesday that tens of thousands of Russian reinforcements are being sent to eastern Ukraine as Russia reportedly prepares for an offensive planned for later this month. However, the UK's Ministry of Defense said that any plans for a new offensive may be "unlikely" to be successful given a lack of munitions and manpower.
A new offensive would come as Russian forces continue their push to capture the Donetsk city of Bakhmut, which has seen heavy fighting in recent months. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that Russian forces were making good progress, but Ukraine maintains that the city has not yet been encircled.
As the fighting continues, Ukraine claimed that the last 24 hours were the deadliest of the entire war for Russian troops, increasing its tally of Russian military dead by 1,030 overnight to 133,190. These figures cannot be verified and are often seen as unreliable.
Anti-Russia narrative
In attempting to take Bakhmut, Russian forces have used scorched earth tactics and turned the once-popular tourist destination into a hell-on-earth. The Kremlin is so hungry for any success that it's willing to go to any length to take the city — even if it's been turned to rubble.
Pro-Russia narrative
If Russian forces take control of Bakhmut, it would be a devastating loss for Ukraine. Not only has Ukraine lost hundreds of troops in trying to retain the city, but this operation would also enable Russia to continue its advance into key areas of Donetsk, including Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.
Nerd narrative
There is a 40% chance that at least 100,000 Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian war before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Board: NYPD Officers Deserve Punishment for 2020 Protest Response
On Monday, the Civilian Complaint Review Board, an independent board that reviews complaints made against the New York City Police Department (NYPD), issued a report recommending punishment for dozens of officers found to have used excessive force and violated other conduct policies during the protests that followed the 2020 murder of George Floyd in Minnesota.
In 140 instances, peaceful protesters were reportedly hit with batons and pepper spray, against NYPD policy. Accusations that officers refused to identify themselves were also confirmed by the report, which found that more than 600 (43%) misconduct allegations were closed without resolution because officers couldn’t be identified.
Of 800 complaints made against officers related to the protests, 146 were substantiated by the Board. But the NYPD commissioner only issued discipline in 42 of those cases.
Left narrative
Despite all the roadblocks the NYPD put up to hinder this investigation, the report is quite expansive and shows how far the department has to go to make sure its officers police peaceful protests in a safe and respectful manner in the future. This might be the tip of the iceberg, as the Board had to postpone the report's release for months while complaints continued to pour in.
Right narrative
Reports like this contribute to the staffing shortage the NYPD and police forces across the country are facing. Police officers have a dangerous job, and need to often react without a moment’s notice, but all they’re rewarded with is reports like this, “defund the police” movements and other anti-cop rhetoric. If Americans want their cities to be policed better, officers should be better supported and given more of the benefit of the doubt.
UN: Unemployment Driving Armed Groups in Sub-Saharan Africa
A report published by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) on Tuesday found that unemployment is the main force driving people to join armed groups in sub-Saharan Africa, which has become a global epicenter of violent extremism.
The study was based on interviews with over 2K people in eight countries, including more than 1K former fighters that are currently detained. A quarter of voluntary recruits cited needing money as their primary reason for joining, while less than one-fifth cited religious ideology.
This represents a new trend. The accounts of unemployment as the main driver for recruitment have increased by 92% from the 2017 UNDP study of violent extremism.
Establishment-critical narrative
Throughout decades of military intervention in sub-Saharan Africa, the Sahel, and the Horn, the world has seen that combat solutions don't work. As nations like the US continue to drop bombs — which have killed countless civilians — local recruitment only increases. The West has known this fact since long before 9/11 and the "War on Terror," but, hopefully, this report will finally help bring military intervention to an end and replace it with more humane economic and political programs.
Pro-establishment narrative
To claim that the US and its Western allies only go to Africa for military exploits is preposterous. The US military provides food aid and disaster relief and supports democracy throughout the continent. Counter-terrorism is a broad term that, when looked at closely, includes all of the non-combat aspects that those opposed to military intervention talk about.
Seoul Court: S. Korea Must Compensate Vietnam War Victim
The Seoul Central District Court ruled Tuesday that the South Korean government must pay some $24K, with interest, to compensate a Vietnamese woman who was shot and lost relatives during the 1968 Phong Nhị massacre.
This marks the first time South Korea is held responsible for a massacre of civilians during the Vietnam War, likely setting a precedent in the country and encouraging victims of other alleged mass killings to file similar lawsuits.
The verdict comes after the now 62-year-old Nguyen Thị Thanh filed a compensation lawsuit against the South Korean government in 2020, seeking an apology along with financial compensation.
Narrative A
After decades of government coverups, Thahn's successful lawsuit has finally achieved a de facto acknowledgment of atrocities committed by Korean troops during the war in Vietnam. In the face of extensive official documentation proving that these wartime crimes against civilians indeed took place, the Korean government should now outright admit wrongdoing and apologize to victims.
Narrative B
South Korea became involved in the Vietnam War following a formal request made by the South Vietnamese government for military assistance as communists escalated violence, engaging in counterinsurgency and medically treating over 30K civilians. While it is true that civilians could have been killed by Korean troops, this wrongdoing calls attention to the monstrosity of war and the incomprehensible reality of battlefield rage. More must be done to address the root causes, and not just by South Korea.
Migrants Leaving NYC Head to Canada
Amid New York City's migration crisis, NYC Mayor Eric Adams confirmed in an interview Monday that the city is providing tickets to migrants seeking to go elsewhere, with many heading to Canada.
The National Guard has reportedly been distributing bus tickets to migrants at the Port Authority Bus Terminal in Manhattan for them to head to upstate New York and then Canada.
The free bus tickets are reportedly to Plattsburgh, NY– roughly 20 miles from the Canadian border– with Adams' admin. then paying for taxis and shuttles to bring the migrants to Quebec. Some say this plan exploits a loophole in the 2002 US-Canada treaty called the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA).
Republican narrative
Adams, who sanctimoniously condemned US border states for sending migrants to New York, is now hypocritically taking advantage of the STCA's loophole, which has opened a back — albeit illegal — door into Canada, where the majority face arrest. This calls attention not only to Adams' fabricated concern for migrants but, more importantly, to the need to close the STCA's glaring gap.
Democratic narrative
Unlike GOP states that use migrants as political pawns, Adams is simply helping those already wishing to go elsewhere. Despite questions about its efficacy, the Safe Third Country Agreement is working, and Canadian officials are doing their best to make up for any perceived flaws in the agreement. Migration and asylum-seeking is a delicate issue, and with some tweaks, the agreement can help bring order and fairness to Canada, the US, and migrants.
Powell: Inflation Fight May Last 'Quite a Bit of Time'
Responding to Friday's Labor Dept. report showing an increase in job hiring, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said the process of bringing inflation down to the 2% target "is likely to take quite a bit of time," and that, "It’s probably going to be bumpy."
Powell's statement came before the Economic Club of Washington, where he declined to say whether the Fed would implement rate hikes higher than the 5-5.25% range forecast in December. However, in the wake of the surprising recent jobs report, he said it was prepared to if continued wage growth led to price jumps.
Following Powell earlier expressing optimism over slowing inflation while avoiding recession layoffs, he added that the parallel downward trends of both — which runs contrary to most economic models — demonstrate the post-COVID economy.
Narrative A
As the January jobs report seemed to surprise Fed officials and investors alike, the Fed's next move should probably be aimed at hiking rates a little bit more. As of December, inflation was still twice the target rate, and unless some drastic increase occurs before the next meeting, raising the benchmark to 5.25% or more will likely be what's needed.
Narrative B
Despite the current official outlook, the US could see Fed rate cuts this year rather than hikes or pauses. Though it didn't show in the January report, all it will take is one month of negative job growth on top of the weakening economy. This is a real possibility given the already —declining economy as well as the recent massive layoffs, particularly in the tech sector.