23 March 2023

Daily Newsletter

UK ‘Partygate’ Scandal: Ex-PM Johnson Questioned by MPs

Facts

  • During the hearing, the former leader rejected suggestions that he should have been aware of social distancing rules and restrictions, saying, "if it was obvious to me these events were contrary to the guidance and the rules, it must have been equally obvious to dozens of others, including the most senior officials in the government, most of them like me responsible for drawing up the rules.”
  • If the committee finds Johnson to have deliberately misled lawmakers, he could be suspended. Any suspension lasting longer than 10 days could lead to an election to remove him from his parliamentary seat.
  • In December 2021, reports of the parties appeared, with Johnson insisting that he and his staff had always adhered to the COVID regulations in place at the time. This was later found to be untrue.
  • Johnson also defended the rule-breaking events — including a birthday gathering for which he was fined — as being "necessary for work purposes." Committee Chair Harriet Harman called Johnson's reasoning "flimsy," saying it "did not amount to much at all."
  • Johnson argued with lawmakers during the three-hour hearing, admitting that he had broken social distancing rules and misled lawmakers but claiming that he did so unintentionally.
  • On Wednesday, former UK PM Boris Johnson faced the seven-member Commons Privileges Committee as part of an investigation into whether he knowingly misled Parliament about a series of gatherings in Downing Street that broke COVID lockdown restrictions.

Spin

Right narrative

It's very likely that Boris Johnson knowingly misled parliament, however, he will probably survive any recall petition or by-election thrown at him, and the former prime minister is still well-loved in his constituency. While Johnson, in his prime, achieved more than the likes of Theresa May or Gordon Brown, the hour for him to return has now passed. If Johnson's ambition is still unquenched, he must ride out the current investigation and set his sights on a new objective.

Left narrative

Rule-breaker Boris Johnson has lost whatever shred of dignity he used to have. The former prime minister is mistaking the UK for fools, pretending he was unaware that he was breaking the regulations that he himself imposed. In reality, his misrepresentation of the truth has more than tarnished his image.

Nerd narrative

There's a 14% chance that Boris Johnson will return as the leader of the UK Conservative Party before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Renewed Fighting in Yemen Tests Ten Months of Calm

Facts

  • After ten months of relative calm, fighting broke out this week in Yemen’s energy-rich Marib province. The recent stretch of peace has been the longest seen by Yemen during its eight-year civil war.
  • At least ten soldiers were killed in the renewed fighting, as the Iran-backed Houthi militia attacked a mountainous area and have been engaged in a build-up of forces in the region.
  • Fighting has erupted in the same district where at least four soldiers were killed last month, and it threatens to undermine new optimism after Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic ties.
  • Last week, Hans Grundberg, the UN’s special envoy for Yemen, said the overall military situation in the country continues to be “relatively stable,” and that elements of the truce are still being implemented. However, he expressed concern about emerging clashes.
  • Military and government sources have revealed that clashes erupted late on Tuesday when the Houthi rebels, who control most of northern Yemen, launched an attack on the Harib district, in the Marib province.
  • The UN has also been working to extend the ceasefire in Yemen, which has largely held since April 2022 despite the UN’s official agreement having expired in October.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Unfortunately, after eight years of fighting and bloodshed, there is still no end in sight to Yemen’s catastrophic war. While a few months of relative calm ignited hope for an end to the conflict, serious negotiations failed and the warring factions were unable to reach a sustainable agreement. The damage is done, and there is little impetus among the international community to end this war.

Pro-establishment narrative

The international community is working diligently to bring about a diplomatic solution to end the eight-year Yemen War, and there are positive signs that could signal peace in the future. With the UN’s help, meaningful conversations are taking place between key players in the conflict, and we could soon see a real improvement in the situation in Yemen.

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US Judge Orders $1.68B Payout Over 1983 Beirut Bombing

Facts

  • In 1983, a truck loaded with explosives destroyed the Marine barracks, killing 241 US service personnel and 58 French peacekeepers.
  • More recently, France asked Lebanese prosecutors to detain Yousef al-Khalil and Sanaa al-Khalil for their suspected involvement in the bombing, which also killed multiple French troops.
  • New York District Judge Loretta Preska said that a 2019 federal law denied Bank Markazi, Iran's central bank, sovereign immunity from the lawsuit. This is intended to enforce a ruling against Iran for providing material support to the bombing's perpetrators.
  • On Wednesday, a US federal judge ordered that Iran's central bank and a European intermediary must pay out $1.68B to the family members of soldiers killed in the 1983 bombing of a US Marine Corps barracks in Beirut.
  • The lawsuit further identifies Luxembourg-based Clearstream Banking for holding the assets in a client account. The bank's parent company, Deutsche Boerse AG, stated it was considering an appeal.
  • Victims and their families received a $2.65B judgment against Iran in federal court in 2007 about the attack. Six years after, they tried to seize bond proceeds allegedly owned by Iran's central bank and managed by Clearstream to partially fulfill the court's ruling.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The victims of this terrible terrorist attack deserve every bit of compensation that can be legally granted to them. The US deployed to Lebanon to protect Lebanese citizens and Palestinian refugees in the country, but Iran cynically used the US presence to its advantage by attacking the Marine barracks via one of its proxy militias. The victims and their families deserve justice.

Establishment-critical narrative

Though the media often say that Hezbollah was behind the Marine barracks bombing, in reality, we may never know who exactly committed the attack. Lebanon was in a full-scale civil war with a myriad of different factions and armed groups fighting nationwide. Hezbollah didn't even exist in 1983 — the group was still forming in the wake of Israel's brutal occupation of the south.

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Reporter: Biden Fed Media 'False Stories' on Pipeline Blasts

Facts

  • Elsewhere in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian officials said on Thursday that the death toll from an earlier drone attack on the Kyiv region rose to nine dead and seven injured. Meanwhile, two civilians were killed and four were injured in Russian attacks on the Donetsk region in the past day. One civilian was killed and two were injured in attacks on Kherson while attacks were also recorded in the regions of Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia with no additional reports of casualties at this stage.
  • In early March, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveled to the White House for a meeting with Biden. During the talks, according to a source "with access to diplomatic intelligence," the CIA "were asked to prepare a cover story in collaboration with German intelligence that would provide the American and German press with an alternative version for the destruction of Nord Stream 2," reported Hersh.
  • In February, Hersh — citing an unnamed US source who he claimed had "direct knowledge of the operational planning" of the attack — reported that US Navy divers, operating under the cover of a NATO exercise in the Baltic Sea, planted remotely triggered explosives that were set off three months later to destroy three of the four pipelines.
  • Meanwhile in Bakhmut, the Donetsk city at the center of months of fighting, the Institute for the Study of War — a US military-affiliated think tank — assessed that Russia continued to make marginal gains in and around the city, but said that its tempo of operations appears to be slowing amid reports that Russian forces are being redeployed elsewhere.
  • Shortly thereafter, stories appeared in the New York Times and the German weekly Die Zeit that alleged that a "pro-Ukrainian group" carried out an "ad hoc 'off the books' operation" in which a luxury sailing yacht was allegedly used to plant the explosives on the pipelines. "It was a total fabrication by American intelligence that was passed along to the Germans, and aimed at discrediting your story," Hersh's source said.
  • Veteran investigative reporter Seymour Hersh alleged on Wednesday that US Pres. Biden and his administration fed US and German media "false cover stories" of how the Nord Stream pipelines were destroyed following Hersh's exposé on how it had allegedly been conducted and who was responsible for the attack.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

While inconclusive, intelligence reviewed by US officials suggests that the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines was carried out by a pro-Ukrainian group that viewed Russia's ability to sell gas to Europe as a threat to ongoing European support for Ukraine. However, the mystery of who was responsible remains largely unsolved.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US was responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines. After Hersh's exposé, the CIA sought to muddy the waters and provide an alternative story to shift the blame elsewhere.

Nerd narrative

There is a 10% chance that Russia will capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Report: Immigration Fueling Record-High Population Growth In Canada

Facts

  • Canada depends on immigration to bolster the gap in its economy created by an aging population. However, a 2.7% increase yearly would lead to the population doubling in about 26 years.
  • Canada's population increased by over a million for the first time in its history in 2022, government census agency Statistics Canada said on Wednesday.
  • Statistics Canada noted the biggest one-year population growth was encouraged by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's efforts to recruit migrants to the country to ease labor shortages and accommodate people fleeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine and other complex emergencies.
  • The country's population was estimated at 39,566,248 on Jan. 1, 2023, after a record population annual growth rate — of 2.7% — since 1957.
  • The previous spike in population was fueled by the post-World War II baby boom and high immigration of refugees following the Hungarian Revolution of 1956. In 2022, international migration accounted for nearly 96% of the population growth in Canada.

Spin

Right narrative

While a growing population brings new energy and ideas, it comes as Canada struggles with a serious housing crisis. The country needs 3.5M additional homes above current home-building projections by 2030 to restore housing affordability. The government can increase immigration and help corporations, but it must remember a country can't build a thriving economy on temporary residents who threaten to congest the existing health, public, and social services.

Left narrative

The Canadian system absorbs well-educated, highly skilled, and entrepreneurial migrants with strong earnings prospects to support its economy. Canada never puts refugees or immigrants in shelters for political stunts — it puts them to work as immigration is a vital part of solving the acute labor market shortages and building a strong economy into the future.

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Report: NY Trump Grand Jury Postponed for Week

Facts

  • In its only meeting of the week, the grand jury Monday heard from Robert Costello, an attorney who has worked for Trump associates Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani. Costello was expected to offer evidence contradicting Cohen’s testimony.
  • It's not yet clear when Bragg will finish his investigation, but the New York Police Dept. has been making physical preparations for any unrest surrounding a possible indictment, including dropping off portable metal barricades to be used to block off streets or sidewalks.
  • Last weekend, Trump made a series of posts on social media saying he expected to be criminally charged and called on his supporters to protest. He also criticized Bragg and the investigation.
  • The New York grand jury weighing whether to charge former Pres. Trump for paying adult film actress Stormy Daniels reportedly will not convene about the case for the rest of the week. Instead, it will meet about a different case and reconvene for the Trump case Monday.
  • This comes after the grand jury meeting Wednesday was reportedly called off without a public explanation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office.
  • Trump could face charges of falsifying business records related to the $130K payment made through his former lawyer Michael Cohen. It’s alleged the payment was to keep Daniels quiet about an affair with Trump prior to the 2016 election; Trump denies the affair.

Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

This so-called case against Trump is so weak that Bragg has had to send the grand jury home for the week. The former president has maintained his innocence throughout this process, and Bragg even once suspended the investigation — the federal government and its Federal Election Commission each opted not to pursue investigations on this matter. Bragg is obviously coming to terms with the fact that this political witch hunt is going nowhere.

Democratic narrative

We have no idea why Bragg has called off the grand jury for the week. It could be an administrative or scheduling issue, or it could be Bragg is attempting to call a new witness. The District Attorney has at least a few more months to keep the grand jury seated while making a case against Trump, meaning one week off won’t change the facts about Trump’s actions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 90% chance that Donald Trump will be indicted on criminal charges in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Bank of England Raises Rates by 0.25%

Facts

  • His comment comes as February saw an unexpected jump in inflation from 10.1% in January to 10.4% last month, fueled by food prices accelerating at the fastest pace in 45 years.
  • Investors in futures markets reportedly had prepared for a 0.25% hike, with the British Sterling strengthening against the US dollar.
  • Previously, the central bank indicated it might pause rate increases, but BoE Gov. Andrew Bailey said despite expectations that inflation will fall, "we need to see that happening."
  • The Bank of England (BoE) voted 7-2 Thursday to raise interest rates another 0.25%, bringing the benchmark rate to 4.25%. It also said it expects inflation to cool faster than expected despite a surprise jump in prices last month.
  • This move mirrors that of other central banks across the world, including the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) 0.25% rate hike Wednesday, the European Central Bank's 0.5% rate increase last week, and the Swiss National Bank's lifting of its rate to 1.5% Thursday.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Just as Boris Johnson is answering for his mistakes and the US Fed for its role in recent bank failures, the BoE cannot be let off scot-free. The bank was slow to act when inflation began, crippling the economy, and has since poorly implemented solutions. Although these rate hikes are necessary, those in charge at the BoE should be held accountable for their failures.

Pro-establishment narrative

Though Britons may not have felt it quite yet, wholesale energy prices have fallen significantly, which means prices of goods are expected to follow suit in the near future. The BoE has brought this about through its rate hikes, the most recent of which will likely be the end of its monetary tightening as the economy shifts back toward normal. This economic crisis has been a complicated battle, but projections show the UK will soon see the light at the end of the tunnel.

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India: Rahul Gandhi Jailed for Modi Comment

Facts

  • Gandhi reportedly asked at an election rally: "But tell me one thing...Nirav Modi, Lalit Modi, Narendra Modi...how come they all have Modi as the common name. How come all the thieves have Modi as the common name?"
  • In his defense of being accused of defaming the entire Modi community, Gandhi told the court: "I have always raised my voice against corruption. My intention was never wrong or to hurt anyone."
  • Meanwhile, Gandhi may be disqualified as a Member of Parliament in line with the Representation of the People Act of 1951, which says a lawmaker can be disqualified if convicted and imprisoned for two years or more.
  • Nirav Modi is a fugitive Indian diamond tycoon charged by Interpol with criminal conspiracy, while Lalit Modi is a fugitive businessman and founder of the Indian Premier League reportedly hiding in London.
  • On Thursday, a court in India sentenced opposition leader Rahul Gandhi to two years in jail in a 2019 criminal defamation case over his remarks about Prime Minister Narendra Modi's surname.
  • The district court in Gujarat's Surat — which found Gandhi's comment defamatory — later suspended the sentence for 30 days and granted bail to allow him to appeal in a higher court.

Spin

Narrative A

The judgment shows no one is above the law and can escape due judicial process for scurrilous statements, scandalous comments, and defamatory remarks. India is a democracy; however, no citizen is free to throw inflammatory abuses at anyone. The sentence will set a precedent that insulting people by citing their caste or targeting them for their surname is inexcusable, even for politicians. Rahul Gandhi must learn a lesson from his conviction and choose his words before speaking in the future.

Narrative B

The court proceedings were flawed since Prime Minister Narendra Modi — the main target of Rahul Gandhi's speech — was not the complainant in the so-called defamation case. Gandhi is getting punished for exercising his Democratic right to speak his opinion and raise his voice against corruption and injustice. It is an attempt to influence the judiciary and eliminate opposition by prosecuting non-BJP leaders. Nonetheless, the law will also catch up with the motormouths of the BJP sooner than later.

Nerd narrative

There's a 53% chance that there will be a non-BJP Prime Minister of India before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Israel's Knesset Passes Law Limiting Conditions For PM Removal

Facts

  • In a 61-to-47 vote, the Knesset approved the bill that would allow only the prime minister himself, or two-thirds of the cabinet, to declare the leader unfit. The cabinet vote would then need to be ratified by a super majority in the parliament.
  • Meanwhile, after local media reported that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was expected to give a statement calling for an immediate halt to the judicial overhaul, Netanyahu's office said the prime minister would issue "an important declaration" on Thursday night.
  • Netanyahu, originally due to speak at 8 p.m. local time, pushed back his scheduled appearance to 8:40 p.m. and summoned Gallant for a meeting. It's unknown whether the defense minister is still expected to speak.
  • On Thursday, Israel ratified a law limiting the circumstances in which a prime minister can be removed.
  • Opposition politicians and protesters claim that the judicial reforms are leading Israel toward autocracy. Meanwhile, Netanyahu — on trial for corruption charges he denies — says the reforms are needed to restore the balance between the branches of government.
  • Thursday’s legislation is one of several laws that comprise its contentious judicial reform and comes as thousands of demonstrators gathered throughout Israel in a fourth midweek day of protests. Tens of thousands have been attending weekly protests every Saturday for two months.

Spin

Left narrative

Israel is on the verge of becoming a dictatorship as PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition dismantles all obstacles in his path to unlimited power, as evidenced by this latest bill, which is a self-serving tool to safeguard his iron grip on the nation. Many Israelis know the danger that could come if Netanyahu’s judicial reforms come to fruition and the courts lose their authority. Something must be done to stop this autocratic coup.

Right narrative

There are many vocal opponents trying to paint Israel’s judicial reform as a far-right takeover, but that is far from the truth; the reality is actually quite the opposite. The self-appointed Israeli Supreme Court has autocratic, unchecked powers that allow it to nullify and rewrite democratically-enacted laws and policies on the basis of subjective justifications. Consequently, these reforms are crucial to curb the court's undemocratic excesses and protect the rule of law.

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TikTok Hearing: US Lawmakers Question CEO During Testimony

Facts

  • During the more than five hours of testimony, Chew repeatedly denied the app shares data or has connections with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and argued the platform was doing everything to ensure the safety of its 150M American users.
  • In his first appearance before Congress on Thursday, TikTok CEO Shou Chew was questioned by US lawmakers concerned about the platform's suspected ties to China, users' privacy, and its impact on children.
  • Lawmakers on both sides were skeptical of Chew’s pitch, with Sens. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and John Thune (R-S.D.) issuing a statement that all Chinese companies “do the bidding” of Chinese intelligence services.
  • Meanwhile, China's commerce ministry has warned that requiring ByteDance to sell its stake in the company would discourage "investors from all over the world, including China, [from] invest[ing] in the United States."
  • Thursday's hearing saw Chew commit to deleting all US user data from company servers by the end of the year — a move in line with Project Texas, which involves the relocation of US user data to Oracle servers based in the US, where the data would then be overseen by American personnel.
  • While the CCP says there’s no evidence that TikTok threatens national security, the Biden admin. has threatened to ban the app if its parent company, ByteDance, doesn’t sell its stake in the US version of the app.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The US has no choice but to ban TikTok. The data the app gathers is too powerful, and Beijing unquestionably extorts Chinese companies to advance its own interests. The CCP cannot be allowed to have access to important data from tens of millions of Americans. Too much is at stake to allow TikTok to continue collecting information on its US users.

Establishment-critical narrative

Talk about banning TikTok shows just how out of touch US lawmakers are. Fear-mongering legislators paint TikTok and China as boogeymen while completely ignoring Facebook, Google, and Twitter’s invasion of privacy. Under the guise of caring about its citizens’ privacy, the US government is merely flexing its muscles against China.

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