Pro-establishment narrative

Indonesians of all stripes are energized and excited to back Prabowo and Gibran as they run for president, and young people, in particular, could fuel their victory. Despite the cries from the critics, Prabowo has withstood public scrutiny for decades while Gibran has shown his political chops as a mayor. Prabowo is leading in the polls, and the momentum behind his support is only just beginning.

Establishment-critical narrative

The Prabowo-Gibran ticket is already off to a shameful start after the Constitutional Court — headed by the Widodo’s brother-in-law — altered the candidate age requirement to benefit the president’s son. Clearly, family members entrenched in Indonesian politics are ignoring laws and norms to create a political dynasty for Widodo, thereby weakening the country’s fragile democracy.

Democratic narrative

While Lewiston fell victim to the latest mass shooting in a country that is plagued by gun violence, Republicans continue to offer their same mantra of "thoughts and prayers." This cycle of mass shootings and social media statements without any action must end, and the GOP has blood on its hands. Unfortunately, the US has a political party that is owned by the gun lobby.

Republican narrative

America's mental health epidemic has reached a breaking point, yet opportunistic politicians and pundits are gleefully using a tragedy to push their anti-Second Amendment agenda. The tragic Lewiston shooting is another example of a mentally unstable man, who had multiple recorded episodes, acting out the most unthinkable evil. While the media may focus on Robert Card's instrument of destruction, it is much more important to address the root cause of his attack.

Nerd narrative

There's a 0.2% chance that the Second Amendment of the US Constitution will be repealed or amended before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The Sudanese army is not the one preventing a lasting ceasefire in Sudan, but this obstruction is from the RSF, which shows no interest in peace. The international community must recognize that the RSF is a terrorist organization and a threat to regional and international security. If Dagalo returns to his senses and abides by the agreements already on the table, there is hope for peace as the Sudanese government is ready for talks.

Narrative B

While al-Burhan blames the RSF and US sanctions, it's the Sudanese Army that is responsible for the most serious human rights violations across the country. Despite outrageous bias not contributing to a comprehensive political solution, the RSF remains ready to begin new negotiations to ensure sustainable peace.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that more than 10K people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Establishment-critical narrative

It's by no means the world's rich countries, but the low- and middle-income countries — many of which themselves suffer from poverty and crises — that continue to bear by far the greatest burden of hosting displaced populations. Moreover, while Western countries pursue increasingly restrictive refugee policies, there's a lack of funding for international refugee programs. Much greater international assistance and a more equitable distribution of responsibilities are needed to support refugees and allow them to return home safely and with dignity.

Pro-establishment narrative

The UNHCR's new data on displaced people is a wake-up call for the international community to step up its efforts in protecting people who have fled war and crises. Even if many states are not living up to their responsibilities under the Geneva Refugee Convention, there are indeed some positive developments. These include the deal reached in June by EU members to revise the bloc's asylum procedures to share responsibility for migrants and refugees. This will not solve all problems, but it's an important step in the right direction.

Anti-China narrative

China's "gray zone" warfare tactics, under which it has been regularly crossing Taiwan's air defense zone, are intended to test how far Taipei will go to reinforce the demarcation. It's normalizing increasing levels of military pressure on Taiwan. This may one day mask China's first moves of an actual attack.

Pro-China narrative

The median line of the Taiwan Strait is non-existent and was never recognized by China. Taiwan might want to portray PRC military exercises as "threats," but the People's Liberation Army Air Force can legitimately operate anywhere on and around Taiwan, which is an inseparable part of China.

Nerd narrative

There's a 39% chance that China will launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

Everyone in Israel — including Netanyahu — will have to answer for the failures that led to the Hamas attacks in Israel. But that is for after the war. Now, Israel must fight for its existence. Now is the time for the country to join in unison to inflict a crushing defeat on Hamas that wipes the terror group out of existence. The black day of Oct. 7 must never be repeated again.

Pro-Palestine narrative

Amid a deepening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the United Nations has so far failed to protect Palestinians in the region. America's resolution called for a "humanitarian pause," but this falls way short of the immediate and lasting ceasefire necessary. Thousands of Palestinians will be killed if the UN doesn't soon resolve its inability to agree.

Nerd narrative

There's a 91% chance that there will be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

This agreement is more than generous, given that the UAW's original demand of 40% would have doubled Ford's labor costs and crushed their competition with foreign companies. While it's true that workers deserve fair pay while their bosses make millions of dollars, it's wrong to make a direct comparison between the thousands of factory workers and the far smaller number of executives. If GM's CEO were to give her entire $29M salary to every worker, for example, it would only add pennies to each rank-and-file worker's paycheck.

Narrative B

Dividing a CEO's million-dollar salary by the number of employees is a nice gimmick, but it doesn't touch the heart of the issue at hand. The truth is that these three car companies made a combined $21B in profit in just the first half of this year. Meanwhile, first-time workers would likely have to be paid $25 per hour to have the same buying power that less than $10 dollars did in the early 1990s. While an agreement is good news, it shouldn't be forgotten that, given the impact of inflation in recent years, the UAW's original demand was actually quite fair.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 447K workers will go on strike as part of major work stoppages in the US in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US currently contains an unemployment low not seen since the 1960s, while inflation sits lower than many of its major economic competitors and allies. Despite negative rhetoric, it's fair to claim that the US economy has successfully rebounded from the depths of the COVID pandemic and is performing remarkably amid continued market pessimism.

Establishment-critical narrative

While many may claim that the US economy is doing well, polling and statistics still show that many Americans believe the opposite. This is largely blamed on a lack of trust in US institutions — which is certainly true — but it's also due to millions living in economic insecurity every day. The US economy, albeit in a great place for some, is still not adequate enough to provide stability for much of the American public.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the next great financial crisis in the US will occur by August 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Hurricane Otis is proof that more funding is needed for hurricane prediction. The number of storms that undergo rapid intensification has grown beyond current forecasting models and software. Increased funding will support computers with a greater capacity to collect, store, and analyze data to further the science. While we can't control what a storm does after it has formed, we can control the data we gather to aid in the development of better warning systems. Nature has overshot our current weather prediction technology.

Narrative B

Hurricane Otis dealt an unpredictable and devastating blow to the communities on the Mexican coastline. However, what is predictable and preventable is the devastating toll that recovery will take on the residents of the area. Instead of preparing for a disaster like this, Mexico’s President spent two years dismantling the country’s Natural Disaster Fund. Two years later, his ill-advised decision will further devastate residents as they try to recover from a catastrophic disaster. The lack of preparation was mostly a failure of process and governance.

Nerd narrative

There is a 70% chance that New York City will experience a hurricane by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

While China is conducting successful and groundbreaking space missions at a rapid rate, the US continues to lag behind in this generation’s lunar race. China’s government and teams of astronauts are committed to reaching their goal of landing on the moon by 2030. However, the rival US is held back by bureaucratic red tape and overall dysfunction in its government. The US may have a head start in the space race, but China is ready to take the lead and never give it back.

Anti-China narrative

The idea of a space race conjures memories of a key time in American history that brought a sense of national pride and unity, which is why so many people are hyping China as a new rival in a 21st-century competition. However, this is far from being true. While China may be making some notable strides in its space exploration sector, it lags so far behind the US that it cannot be considered a serious rival. Perhaps China can make things interesting over the next few decades, but it's not close at the moment.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that China will conduct at least 16 space station visits before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.