Establishment-critical narrative

In its desire to intervene militarily across the globe, the US has not only stretched itself thin but also pushed its opponents toward cooperation with Moscow. Throughout the Cold War and up until this moment, the West had no reason to fear Russian involvement with the likes of North Korea or Iran, but now that it's ineffectively funded Ukraine while antagonizing Tehran in the Middle East, other nations have the opportunity to lessen Washington's influence and redefine the global order.

Pro-establishment narrative

With reports of over 1K containers shipped from North Korea to Russia having been confirmed, the world should be on extremely high alert. Kim Jong Un's regime, which has launched over 100 missile tests since last year, is likely working with Moscow to obtain sophisticated technology, including spy satellites. As he wreaks havoc on the free society of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has now potentially offered to help Pyongyang do the same to his neighboring democracies. The West must bolster its military preparedness more than ever before.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that North Korea will send at least 100 troops to Ukraine before 2024, without Ukrainian consent, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

It clearly pays to be a Democrat, as the DOJ has protected this member of the president’s political party. While Trump and legions of other individuals are being aggressively charged for their alleged attempts to disrupt Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, Bowman gets a mere slap on the wrist for similar behavior. These double standards are outrageous.

Democratic narrative

Republicans are attempting to distract from their party’s disarray. You'd have to be crazy to argue that Bowman's actions are equal to that of the Jan. 6 insurrectionists, who intended to overturn the results of a legitimate, democratic election. Nine deaths have now been linked to the insurrectionists' riots, while no one was harmed by Bowman’s accidental pulling of the fire alarm.

Pro-establishment narrative

The US has the right to self-defense if its forces fighting the Islamic State are attacked by Iranian-backed militias. The US delivered surgical strikes, and there is no doubt that the Iranian regime is the lynchpin for the ongoing attacks on US forces in the region. The Ayatollah in Tehran must understand that the American people will not tolerate an escalation of the attacks, which threaten to destabilize the entire region. Washington wants to prevent a widening of Hamas' war against Israel, and hopefully, the regime has gotten the message.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the US repeatedly refers to its right to self-defense, it blatantly ignores the Palestinians' right to self-defense and staunchly backs the Israeli regime's outrageous collective punishment campaign against the people of Gaza. It's absurd to assume that the resistance forces will stand idly by as the West refuses to call for a ceasefire and while Washington vetoes draft UN resolutions to end the war. Washington, not Tehran, is fueling the conflict, and Iran will continue to support the Palestinian right to freedom.

Nerd narrative

There's a 40% chance that the US government will state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the Oct. 7 attack on Israel before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

There remains a chance this decision will be overturned, and Georgia’s legislators shouldn’t redraw any maps until every legal option has been exhausted. The Obama-nominated judge is simply trying to sway the balance of power in Congress.

Democratic narrative

The decision is a win for democracy and those who stand against voter suppression. Republicans intentionally drew maps that failed to reflect the state's demographics. There’s hope that in the near future, it won’t take the courts to fight this type of racism.

Narrative A

The decision to uphold an outdated law — which fuels violence and discrimination against and stigmatization of soldiers in the LGBTQ community — is a distressing setback in the decades-long struggle for gay rights and equality in the armed forces both in South Korea and worldwide.

Narrative B

Allowing same-sex relationships between troops would undermine military discipline, potentially upend the army's hierarchy, and thus may impact South Korea's military readiness. In addition, Article 6 is not meant to punish sexual orientation but to deter sexual abuse in the army.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Taliban has increasingly restricted the rights of women and girls in Afghanistan, banning them from higher education, public places, and most forms of employment. These restrictions will have devastating long-term impacts on the country's future. The education ban has also worsened the country's international standing, further isolating the nation from the international community at a time when Kabul faces huge economic and humanitarian crises. Wesa is right — there is no way for a country to thrive when half of its population is systematically excluded from participating.

Establishment-critical narrative

While the foreign press has taken the story of the Taliban's ban on girl's education and ran with it, the plan has always been a temporary suspension, not a full-out ban. The Taliban's administration is taking steps to resolve this issue and will continue to make efforts to do so, but in the meantime, girls up to sixth grade are still receiving primary school education, and women continue to teach and attend Islamic seminaries, work in the healthcare sector, and teach in some schools. Education in Afghanistan is not as bad as Western-dominated international organizations make it out to be.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Afghanistan will allow same-sex marriage by August 2091, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While it's true that no one knows the cause yet, there's a reason investigators have so far pointed to a Chinese ship as a suspect. Not only did they find evidence of an anchor — thought to be the Newnew Polar Bear's — being dragged across the pipeline, but China, as well as Russia, would have had an incentive to disrupt a European gas supply line. As energy sources become an increasingly important factor in global issues, it's justifiable to point to these countries.

Establishment-critical narrative

First of all, no evidence has been found linking any Russian vessels to this incident, which is why Moscow has denied any involvement in the matter. And even though these investigators claim they found evidence of an anchor, the truth is that no abnormalities due to poor sea conditions were found that would suggest the boat was conducting unusual activities. While an investigation must be conducted, it must also be done objectively.

Establishment-critical narrative

Phillips has the credentials of a candidate who can appeal to moderate voters, as proven by his flipping of a former Republican-held district. He can self-fund his campaign and provide a healthy alternative to an unpopular president rather than being a spoiler. If current polling is accurate, Phillips might be Democrats' chance to prevent Trump from returning to the White House.

Pro-establishment narrative

This isn't a longshot bid, it's a no-shot bid by Phillips. No one outside Minnesota knows who he is, and the entirety of his in-state party has vowed its devotion to Biden. Phillips is just wasting valuable resources that should go toward making sure Biden serves a second term. Phillips might be doing this to boost his own name, but he could tear the party apart in the process.

Republican narrative

Democrats claim they want to beat Trump, but polling shows a vast number of Democrats are concerned about Biden's age and don't want him to run for reelection. The DNC might have made a mistake going all-in for Biden without leaving open a chance for a challenger who might better appeal to its constituency. This could put Trump in the driver's seat.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 75% chance that Trump and Biden will be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received in the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Orbán showed his affinity for authoritarianism by shaking hands with Putin, and also undermined European unity and security with his actions. The EU has formed a united front in support of Ukraine against Russia’s brutal invasion, yet Orbán has been a thorn in the side of democracy and the rules-based international order. Orbán must face consequences for his dangerous actions.

Establishment-critical narrative

While other Western countries continue down the path of destruction by aiding and abetting a never-ending war that’s already lasted 20 months, Hungary is seeking a diplomatic solution. This war has been disastrous beyond Russia and Ukraine, and if communication with Putin is needed to end this disaster, leaders have a duty to talk with him.

Nerd narrative

There's an 18% chance that Hungary will leave the EU before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Blake Masters is a rising young star in the Republican Party, and Arizona conservatives want him to be their voice in Congress after his first attempt at securing a Senate seat. A stalwart defender of America First ideals, Masters has the intelligence and business background to be an effective legislator and conservative fighter. Masters is already leading in early polls, and he is the perfect candidate to revitalize the GOP.

Democratic narrative

The Arizona GOP has troubling far-right components, and the emerging war between Kari Lake and Blake Masters shows its internal dysfunction. Despite both being extreme MAGA candidates, Lake and Masters are battling over supremacy in the state GOP even though they aren't even running for the same office. While she was a failed candidate, Lake is popular among Republicans, and her endorsement could propel Abe Hamadeh over the top. Either way, the MAGA movement is crumbling from within.

Nerd narrative

There is a 1% chance that Blake Masters will be President of the United States before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.