Mike Pence Drops out of 2024 Presidential Race
Former vice president Mike Pence withdrew from the 2024 Republican Party presidential nomination race on Saturday, stating "this is not my time," to the Republican Jewish Coalition in Las Vegas.
Pence said he had intended to run for president because he believed the US "is in a lot of trouble," but after "much prayer and deliberation," he had decided to suspend his campaign.
Democratic narrative
Mike Pence — a key witness for federal prosecutors against Donald Trump in his trial about the events surrounding Jan. 6, 2021 — has paid the price for not bending the knee to Donald Trump time and again. His decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race underscores how tricky the path is to topple the former president, who is currently dominating the GOP polling. Pence was always a non-starter in the GOP race and now the field of "non-Trumpers" shrinks even more.
Pro-Trump narrative
With Trump polling so strongly in the face of weaponized legal action against him, Pence's hopes of rebooting his career were doomed. Despite years of experience in Washington, he struggled to gain traction or raise money to fund his anemic campaign as Republican voters abandoned him. Pence never had a chance against the former president, who has built one of the biggest primary leads in US electoral history.
Nerd narrative
There's a 40% chance that Trump will win if the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
France: Macron to Enshrine Abortion Rights in Constitution
Pres. Emmanuel Macron has promised to enshrine women's abortion rights in the French Constitution by 2024 to make them "irreversible."
In an online post on Sunday, Macron said his government will submit a draft text to grant abortion constitutional status to France's top administrative court over the coming week.
Narrative A
While abortion in France was legalized in 1975, several laws enacted since then have helped protect women's health and anonymity as well as improved the conditions to terminate a pregnancy by making the procedure more affordable. However, it's high time abortion rights are better protected under the French Constitution against the backsliding of this issue seen in nations including the US and Poland.
Narrative B
Macron's enshrinement of abortion in the French constitution is concerning, ignores pro-life sentiments, and runs contrary to the pleas of the Vatican. It's vital to push back against ideals that destroy human life. Macron enjoys a frank and open relationship with Pope Francis — hopefully, the French president will be open to embracing pro-life values going forward.
China Pledges to Renew Military Ties With US
China's top-ranking military official Gen. Zhang Youxia announced that Beijing aims to renew military ties with the US at the three-day Xiangshan security forum on Monday, amid recent efforts to restore military-to-military lines of communication ahead of a possible Biden-Xi summit.
The vice chairman of China's top military body, the Central Military Commission, further stated that Beijing is committed to deepening its strategic ties with Russia and developing a military relationship with the US based on mutual respect and "win-win cooperation."
Anti-China narrative
That China invited the US delegation to the gathering shows that Beijing wants to put military exchanges with Washington back on a solid footing. This is also due to the US diplomatic view that engaging in candid US-China dialogue is crucial for the stability of East Asia and the world. However, significant differences remain between the Chinese Communist Party's foreign policy and American values. PRC propaganda will exploit the delegation's attendance, and it remains to be seen how serious China really is about improving ties.
Pro-China narrative
The US participation in this forum is the latest expression of its interest in improving strategic ties with China. Yet gestures alone will not be enough to put relations back on track. Washington's interference in China's internal affairs, particularly on the Taiwan issue, its provocations in the South China Sea, and illegal sanctions do not serve this goal. The US must realize that its two-faced tactics are leading to a dead end and that China will never bow to its coercive policy and claim to hegemony. Washington must follow through with meaningful actions of goodwill.
Nerd narrative
There is a 15% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
India: Deadly Blast Strikes Jehovah's Witness Prayer Meeting
Three people have died, with over 50 injured, after three explosions struck a Jehovah’s Witnesses prayer meeting on Sunday in Kochi, a city in the southern Indian state of Kerala.
The blasts are believed to have been caused by improvised devices after a man named Dominic Martin confessed to using 50 firecrackers and eight liters of petrol to set off the explosions.
Narrative A
Kerala is one of India's most peaceful and socially harmonious states. It has a relatively higher share of Muslim and Christian population than other Indian provinces. An isolated crisis like this must be rationally investigated to clarify the reality of what occurred to the public.
Narrative B
This incident is horrific, and the incorrect linkage to the Israel-Hamas conflict speaks to a larger concern that's disturbingly far-ranging across India. There's the possibility that the Middle East conflict could indirectly affect the nation, and all levels of government must work together to prepare for any strains on social cohesion.
White House Unveils AI Safety Guidelines
US President Joe Biden Monday was set to sign an executive order regarding artificial intelligence (AI) safety to protect consumers, workers, and minority groups from the technology's related risks on Monday.
The order, via the Defense Production Act, requires developers to submit the results of technology safety tests to the federal government, while the US Commerce Department will issue guidance concerning labeling and watermarking AI-generated content.
Democratic narrative
The US government is attempting to keep the commercial aspirations of AI in check while integrating its benefits into the Biden administration's federal agencies. The executive order rightfully acknowledges both the excitement and danger that AI is capable of globally, and — if successful — will mark the strongest governmental directive seen so far in the sector.
Republican narrative
Biden leading the fight for AI ethics is like a liberal, multinational corporation controlling what election-related information the public is allowed to see. The most powerful aspect of AI is its information control, which the Democrats were lucky enough to have on their side during the 2020 election. If social media platformers were able to sway large swaths of undecided voters in Biden's direction, what do you think this corporate-government partnership will do next as the technology it controls grows stronger?
Nerd narrative
There's a 95% chance that there will be an AI Sputnik moment before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Iowa GOP Poll: Haley Surges to Second Place Tie
According to an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is now tied for second in polling at the party's Iowa caucus with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
While October's polling sees both DeSantis and Haley sitting at 16% — a decrease of 3% and an increase of 10% respectively compared to a poll conducted in August — former president Donald Trump remains the first-choice candidate by likely Iowa caucusgoers with a commanding 43%.
Anti-Trump narrative
In the underdog race to pose a credible, if unlikely, bid to beat Trump to the Republican nomination, it seems that Haley has taken the mantle. While other GOP nominees have had their moments in the headlines, it's Haley who has slowly but surely secured a strong base with voters after two commendable debate appearances. Her surge in Iowa is notable and doesn't even reflect the news that Mike Pence has dropped out. Trump should take note.
Pro-Trump narrative
Wall Street Republicans are only backing Haley as DeSantis' polling numbers have embarrassingly diminished. However, as the data shows, Trump’s followers are not sheep and the candidacy appears to be all but secured. Nikki Haley may be working the "never Trumper" donor circuit but the former president is locking the GOP nomination down in historic fashion.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that Nikki Haley will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Israel Expands Assault Into Gaza
After Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that the country's war against Hamas was now in the "second stage" over the weekend, Israeli troops and tanks continued to push deeper into the territory of Gaza on Monday. Reports suggested that Israeli forces had blocked Gaza's main north-south highway and were advancing on Gaza City from two directions.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Monday that it killed dozens of Hamas militants in the attacks, including a number of senior commanders. It added that the assault was supported by drone attacks and air strikes; of which there were around 600, the IDF said. Meanwhile, Hamas confirmed it was involved in "heavy fighting" against Israel.
Pro-Israel narrative
Following the terror attacks in Israel, the country is continuing its legitimate military operations in Gaza as part of its war against Hamas. Israel's military activity has killed dozens of Hamas fighters, including a number of commanders, and has destroyed a number of Hamas weapons and positions.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Israel's unrelenting attacks on Gaza have wiped out whole neighborhoods and killed thousands of civilians. The bombardment is so extensive that rescuers often have to leave dead bodies under the rubble in order to prioritize rescuing those who may be still alive from more recent attacks. A ceasefire is needed now.
Nerd narrative
There's a 90% chance that there will be an Israel-Hezbollah war by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Colorado: Trump Ballot Ban Trial Begins
Testimony began Monday in Colorado in a lawsuit challenging whether former Pres. Donald Trump should be barred from running for the presidency under the US Constitution’s "insurrection clause."
Plaintiffs are arguing to invoke the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, which bars from public office any individual who has taken an oath of office and then "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the [U.S.], or given comfort to the enemies thereof."
Anti-Trump narrative
This case has been brought to preserve democracy for those who believe in it and want to uphold it. While trying to run for president, Trump is facing state and federal criminal charges over his role in the conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election. He should not be allowed to hold public office again and Colorado is leading the way.
Pro-Trump narrative
The Colorado plaintiffs are making up their own definition of insurrection in order to keep Trump off the ballot. This is a pathetic, unconstitutional move to silence supporters of a candidate Democrats know they have little hope of beating in a fair and free election. If this suit isn't thrown out altogether, Trump should win the case hands down in court.
Nerd narrative
There is a 3% chance that on Election Day 2024, Donald Trump will be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Putin Calls Security Meeting After Mob Storms Dagestan Airport
Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin on Monday called a meeting of top security and law enforcement officials after hundreds stormed an airport in the Russian region of Dagestan a day earlier.
Men from the predominantly Muslim region in Russia's south overran staff at the Makhachkala Uytash Airport and made their way onto the runway. They then descended on a plane that had recently arrived from Israel. Some carried signs that read, "We are against Jewish refugees." Others said, "There is no place for child-killers in Dagestan."
Pro-establishment narrative
The storming of this Dagestani airport is a clear instance of anti-Semitism that needs to be vehemently condemned and prosecuted by Russian authorities. Attacks of this kind must never be allowed to stand.
Pro-Russia narrative
With the hopes of securing another propaganda victory against Russia, hostile forces from abroad have manipulated news of events in the Middle East in order to instigate people in the Dagestan region to riot. Russia condemns these actions at the airport.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that Israel will impose sanctions on Russia by 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Free Trade Negotiations Between the EU and Australia Stall
Australia and the European Union are unlikely to reach a free trade deal for several years after Canberra rejected the EU's latest proposals, according to Australian government ministers. Australia hoped to remove tariffs on its agricultural products while Europe wanted greater access to Australia’s "critical minerals."
Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said the two parties held last-chance negotiations in Osaka, Japan while a meeting of G7 trade ministers took place. However, in a video statement Sunday, Farrell said. "Unfortunately, we have not been able to make progress."
Narrative A
The EU and Australia finally seemed destined to reach a free trade agreement after five years of arduous negotiations until the Canbera's trade minister came with last-minute demands that sank the deal. It's an unfortunate result for all parties involved, and the EU tried its best to grant Australian farmers competitive access to European markets. However, all the hard work from previous negotiations was for naught, and it may take years for talks to resume. The EU did all it could to strike a fair deal, but Australia kept moving the goalposts.
Narrative B
Kudos to the Australian government, for putting Aussie agriculture first in trade negotiations with the EU. Europe was unwilling to put a commercially meaningful offer on the table, and it would have put Australian farmers behind their competitors in other countries. While there's often pressure to make important trade agreements, it's more important to look out for national industry and workers, and Australian leaders did just that. Hopefully, the EU can return with more fair offers that benefit Australia's fine farmers.