Nikki Haley’s breakout jolts the 2024 GOP undercard race
POLITICOOct 29, 2023
Iowa GOP Poll: Haley Surges to Second Place Tie
The Facts
According to an NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley is now tied for second in polling at the party's Iowa caucus with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
While October's polling sees both DeSantis and Haley sitting at 16% — a decrease of 3% and an increase of 10% respectively compared to a poll conducted in August — former president Donald Trump remains the first-choice candidate by likely Iowa caucusgoers with a commanding 43%.
The Spin
Anti-Trump narrative
In the underdog race to pose a credible, if unlikely, bid to beat Trump to the Republican nomination, it seems that Haley has taken the mantle. While other GOP nominees have had their moments in the headlines, it's Haley who has slowly but surely secured a strong base with voters after two commendable debate appearances. Her surge in Iowa is notable and doesn't even reflect the news that Mike Pence has dropped out. Trump should take note.
Pro-Trump narrative
Wall Street Republicans are only backing Haley as DeSantis' polling numbers have embarrassingly diminished. However, as the data shows, Trump’s followers are not sheep and the candidacy appears to be all but secured. Nikki Haley may be working the "never Trumper" donor circuit but the former president is locking the GOP nomination down in historic fashion.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that Nikki Haley will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 Presidential Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.