Over 150 Killed as Powerful Earthquake Rattles Nepal
At least 157 people have been killed after a powerful earthquake hit a remote region of Nepal on Friday night, officials announced Saturday.
Authorities said hundreds have been injured — though these figures, along with the death toll, are expected to rise as the search for the survivors in the debris of collapsed homes and buildings continues.
Narrative A
Nepal is nestled in the world's most seismically active region, on a major geological faultline where the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates collide, forming the Himalayas and making earthquakes a regular occurrence. Not much can be done to protect the country and its neighbors from this unfortunate geographical feature, which puts the lives of those living in the area at risk.
Narrative B
While there's no way to accurately predict when exactly an earthquake will occur, Nepal's situation becomes more problematic because of its flimsy buildings, which can't withstand powerful earthquakes, and growing poor population in rural vulnerable areas, which hamper rescue efforts and contribute to the higher death toll. Nepal must develop mechanisms to quickly and effectively respond to earthquakes to protect its people and national assets.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 79.1K people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake between 2020 and 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Saudi Arabia, Russia to Continue Voluntary Oil Cuts
The two major global oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to further oil production cuts through to the end of the year on Sunday. The move by the OPEC+ members comes as tensions in the Middle East continue to weigh on the global crude oil markets.
Saudi Arabia — the world's leading oil exporter — will maintain a voluntary production cut of 1M barrels per day that began in July, reducing output to about 9M barrels per day (bpd) in December, an official source from the kingdom's energy ministry said. The source added that the decision will be reviewed next month.
Narrative A
While OPEC leader, Saudi Arabia, pretends that the continued production cuts are aimed at stabilizing the global crude oil market, the main goal is to boost prices. By cutting supply, however, Saudi Arabia is shooting itself in the foot, as Saudi Gross Domestic Product continues to shrink as a result and this development is only partially offset by growth in non-oil sectors. The Saudis are facing a dilemma, as global recessionary risks are affecting global oil demand, yet the Kingdom will have to phase out the production cuts in order to get back on track for growth.
Narrative B
The decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to voluntarily continue to cut oil production reflects OPEC's proactive policy to limit global oil market volatility and is not price-driven. Thanks to the precautionary measures, which are regularly reviewed, the global oil market is moving in the right direction of a balanced supply-demand balance. In order to keep the market stable as demand is expected to increase due to the global economic recovery, the world needs to ramp up investment in all types of energy sources, including oil.
Narrative C
While Riyadh and Moscow officially maintain close cooperation, in reality, that partnership is eroding when it comes to output cuts. While Saudi Arabia continues to carry the main burden of balancing the oil market and propping up prices, exports of Russian crude oil are rising, with Moscow recently reducing its promised production cuts. This is no surprise as Russia's natural gas exports have fallen sharply and Moscow is even more reliant on its oil sales to fund its war effort in Ukraine. This issue is likely to come up at the next OPEC+ meeting.
Nerd narrative
There is a 30% chance that oil exports will account for less than 70% of Saudi Arabia's exports in the first quarter of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Blinken Makes Unannounced Iraq Trip Amid Regional Tensions
As part of a multi-country tour of the Middle East, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken paid an unannounced visit to Iraq on Sunday, holding talks with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani following recent attacks within the country on American forces as well as the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
Blinken arrived in Baghdad after meeting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the occupied West Bank earlier on Sunday as well as stopping in Cyprus to discuss a potential aid route to Gaza. The visit was not announced due to security precautions.
Pro-establishment narrative
The entirety of Blinken's current mission is to prevent the Gaza war from spilling over into other regional countries. With powerful elements within the Iraqi state in favor of Iran, alongside an expansion of attacks against US forces, Blinken is attempting to rule out the possibility of further military escalation and violence before it spirals into a disaster that would negatively impact the region's security.
Establishment-critical narrative
It is the US that continues to manipulate and stoke tensions in the Middle East to further its geopolitical goals. Iraq is a lynchpin in resisting US-Israeli hegemony in the region, and it has laid the groundwork for a new front in the Arab and Muslim worlds, which also includes Iran's regional muscle. The US will soon realize that its presence in Iraq is untenable.
Nerd narrative
There is an 11% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Jordan, Israel Coordinate Airdrop of Medical Aid to Gaza Hospital
Jordan's King Abdullah II announced on Monday that the country airdropped "urgent medical aid" to a Jordanian field hospital in the Gaza Strip as concerns regarding supply shortages at overcrowded hospitals grow amid Israel's conflict with Hamas.
Jordan's state news agency reported that "supplies were about to run out due to the delay of delivering aid through Rafah crossing," thus necessitating the airdrop.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Though the Jordanian airdrop of aid into Gaza is an important move to alleviate the strip's worsening humanitarian crisis, it's merely a drop in the bucket as Gaza faces shortages of food, water, electricity, and fuel caused by Israel’s blockade and relentless and reckless bombing. Israel has created an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Pro-Israel narrative
Israel is well aware of the suffering of Gazans under Hamas's terrorist leadership and has been open to allowing the flow of humanitarian aid into the strip. Tel Aviv is focused on the national security priority of defeating Hamas, which has been trying to steal aid meant for civilians, and has absolutely no interest in causing unnecessary suffering for civilians.
Nerd narrative
There is a 31% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: US and EU Officials Broach Topic of Peace Negotiations with Ukraine
Officials from the US and the EU have reportedly approached the Ukrainian government in order to raise the subject of possible peace negotiations with Russia, according to one current and one former US official who spoke to NBC News.
The sources told the publication that the topic was raised at last month's meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group — a regular summit of more than 50 nations that provide Ukraine with weapons and support. The talks, described as delicate, reportedly included broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up in order to reach a peace deal; it follows concerns from officials that the war has reached a stalemate and that Ukraine is running out of forces.
Pro-establishment narrative
While the West stands ready to support Ukraine, the front lines have not shifted in months and there are concerns about how many more troops the country can field for battle. Nothing is decided, and it's Ukraine's decision, but perhaps now is the right time to start thinking about how the war can be brought to a close.
Pro-Ukraine narrative
As Ukraine has made clear many times, it will not negotiate with terrorists who are illegally occupying the country's territory. Once Russia withdraws all its troops from Ukraine, only then can there be talk of diplomacy.
Pro-Russia narrative
As Russia has reiterated time and again, Moscow stands ready to have meaningful discussions with Ukraine and its Western allies to bring the war to a close. However, as Russia has stipulated, this peace is dependent on Ukraine not aligning with NATO.
Nerd narrative
There's a 1% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Philippines Radio Journalist Shot Dead on Air in 'Brazen Killing'
Juan Jumalon, a radio host in the Philippines, was shot live on air on November 5, making him the 199th journalist to be killed in the country since 1986.
Jumalon, who went by the name "DJ Johnny Walker," was shot by an unknown attacker while broadcasting in his home in Calamba town in Misamis Occidental province. Police say that an investigation is ongoing to identify the gunman and see if the shooting was related to Jumalon's broadcast work or a personal matter.
Pro-establishment narrative
Attacks on journalists can not be tolerated, and people who threaten the freedom of the press must face consequences. President Marcos and his administration fully support any and all efforts to find and prosecute those who committed this heinous crime. Manila is dedicated to halting this unacceptable trend of danger to members of the press across the Philippines.
Establishment-critical narrative
The Philippines is one of the most dangerous places in the world to be a journalist, and sadly this has not changed under the leadership of President Marcos. Manila has a historically awful record for prosecuting the killers of journalists. There are deep institutional issues nationwide that must be addressed to protect members of the media from heinous attacks like these.
Republican Peter Meijer Running for Senate in Michigan
Former US Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) announced Monday he is running in the 2024 Republican primary for Michigan's open US Senate seat.
Meijer is joining the field competing to replace Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who announced her retirement in January after more than two decades in her seat.
Democratic narrative
This is a bad choice by Meijer. Not only did his anti-Trump vote cost him in his last primary election, but Democrats even boosted his radical opponent — betting (eventually correctly) — that Gibbs would be easier to defeat in the general election. There are too many forces working against Meijer for his run to amount to anything that would threaten the Democratic Party.
Pro-Trump narrative
Meijer is an unviable candidate. He didn't just betray Trump — the national leader of the GOP — and the former president’s supporters by voting for impeachment, his voting record in Congress showed a propensity for voting in step with the Biden administration more than any serious Republican should side with the opposing party.
Conservative narrative
Peter Meijer is an ethical Constitutional Conservative who has a strong centrist appeal. While he voted to impeach Trump, he would also support Trump in unseating Joe Biden in 2024. Meijer speaks to a strong current in the GOP base and will be a contender to be Michigan's next senator.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 63% chance that Republicans will control the Senate after the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Gaza Death Toll Exceeds 10K as IDF Says Territory Essentially Split in Two
In 31 days of unrelenting Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip — in combination with a blockade on food, water, fuel, and medicine — the territory's health ministry said on Monday that upwards of 10K Palestinians have now been killed since Oct. 7. Thousands more are believed to be trapped under the rubble.
Air strikes on Gaza in the last 24 hours were reportedly the most intense they'd been in any day since the bombardment campaign started, according to reporting from the Guardian. This comes as Israeli forces continued to use the cover of strikes for a ground operation in the territory.
Pro-Israel narrative
While the images depicting the destruction in Gaza, alongside the high number of casualties, as a result of Israeli air strikes may be distressing, they need to be put in the context of other wars. Wars are inevitably destructive, and this one was started by Hamas and Israel was forced to respond to a catastrophic terror attack.
Pro-Palestine narrative
While Hamas' attack on Israel cannot be condoned, that does not justify Israel's response in which it has killed thousands of Palestinian civilians — the vast majority of which have no affiliation to Hamas. This is collective punishment on the Palestinians and it needs to be called out.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by November 2059, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Trump Testifies in Heated New York Civil Fraud Case
Former Pres. Donald Trump appeared in a New York courtroom Monday as he took the witness stand to testify in a $250M civil fraud trial in his home state. A defiant Trump blasted the case and sparred with the presiding judge, state Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron.
The trial stems from a lawsuit by N.Y. Attorney General Letitia James, a Democrat, which accuses Trump and his family of inflating the value of their assets and net worth to secure favorable financing and defraud banks. The suit involves the former president, his children, Donald Jr., Ivanka, and Eric, and other associates.
Republican narrative
Anyone who isn’t completely blinded by their desire to destroy Donald Trump by any means necessary knows that the former president is being politically persecuted unlike any figure in American history, and he has every right to fight against this political warfare. No matter what the Democratic establishment does, Pres. Trump keeps rising in the polls as the American people wake up to the weaponized justice system that exists. While corrupt prosecutors look for any loophole to attack Trump, the former president is ramping up his efforts to retake the White House and make America great again.
Democratic narrative
As Donald Trump takes the stand in one of his many ongoing trials, he continues to display erratic behavior. Trump has perpetrated notorious fraud for decades and earned his over-inflated “fortune” through nepotism and disregard for the law, and he is finally being held accountable for his unscrupulous behavior. It's looking like he won't be able to dissuade or intimidate the judge in this case, which is a bad omen for his mountain of legal battles.
Nerd narrative
There is a 56% chance that Donald Trump will be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
New Poll Shows Trump Winning 5 Battleground States
A new poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, and released Sunday, shows former Pres. Donald Trump leading Pres. Joe Biden in five of the six most important battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — one year before a potential rematch of those candidates in 2024.
Biden, who lost the four states by four to 10 points each, only won the sixth battleground state of Wisconsin, where he held a two-point lead.
Democratic narrative
We're a year from the 2024 election and by almost every economic measure the US is making economic gains and successfully emerging from the COVID era. If voters aren’t feeling the financial benefits and are in turn blaming Biden, then the president and his campaign have a year to rally voters to a strong electoral victory. Plus, polls are also showing that Trump's morass of legal woes could swing polls strongly in Biden's favor if the former president is convicted.
Pro-Trump narrative
There’s no way for Democrats or the Biden administration to sugarcoat this — the US has serious issues and there is global chaos on Biden’s watch. Biden’s "big government" tendencies and ineffective policies have caused this and show no signs of getting better. A return of the Trump administration is the only way out.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 43% chance Trump would win a 2024 presidential election vs. Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.