Pro-establishment narrative

France has strong historical ties to Lebanon and its people, owing largely to the country's extensive diplomatic involvement in the region. France also perceives instability in the Middle East as a threat to its own security, thus explaining its interest in strengthening military ties with the country. It makes perfect sense that the French would send military equipment as part of this effort.

Establishment-critical narrative

The French are kidding themselves if they think that the Lebanese people will suddenly forget France's support for Israel's ruthless assault on Gaza, just because it plans to send some armored vehicles to the Lebanese army. France can warn and threaten Hezbollah all it wants, but this will have no impact on Hezbollah's resistance to Israel and the daily attacks it carries out on the border.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Lebanon will come under French rule again before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Iran narrative

Iran's treatment of women in general and Mohammadi in particular is inhumane and demonstrates the moral failings of the Islamic Republic. Mohammadi, a brave activist who has fought hard for women's rights, is facing death all because she refused to cover her hair. The international community must do more to support Iranian women.

Pro-Iran narrative

From the beginning, the West has tried to stir trouble in Iran over its overwhelmingly popular religious policies. These Western-backed activists are nothing but provocateurs sowing the seeds of subversion in a bid to destabilize Iran. Iranian women have a strong Muslim identity, and they won't be swayed by foreign manipulation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that Iran will disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

The continued expansion of robot development in China highlights the country's rapid technological advancements. Already important roles in both established and growing industries, China is building upon already-established momentum within sectors such as AI and seizing an exciting opportunity to seismically change the world in a manner that seemed impossible only years prior.

Anti-China narrative

China's ambitious plan isn't an attestment to its technological prowess but rather an indication of an impending economic catastrophe as it seeks to leverage technological breakthroughs to combat an aging population crisis as well as sizeable labor shortages. Beijing's focus on humanoid robotics is also a clear attempt to challenge the likes of Japan and the US and present itself as a global leader in the field.

Cynical narrative

To produce humanoid robots powered by AI is simply playing with fire and a certainty to end poorly. For humanity to create and then place trust in creations exponentially more powerful and more intelligent than us is naïve. Such a progression in technology mirrors the beginning of a plethora of stories portraying the downfall of mankind.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the creation of a humanoid robot that the general public judges as indistinguishable from humans will occur by February 2058, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Israel narrative

After Hamas' heinous attack on Israel, the country has a right and a duty to carry out this operation against Gaza — including taking control of the enclave's security for an indefinite period — to ensure such an attack on Israel does not take place again.

Pro-Palestine narrative

As Israel has done time again with the Palestinians, although it illegally occupies their land, it claims that it is in fact the victim. While Hamas' attacks were tragic, the decades of death and destruction imposed on Palestinians by Israel that incubated this violence cannot be ignored.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Israel will lift the blockade on electricity, food, gasoline, and medicine in Gaza by December 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia's close relationship with the brutal Myanmar junta has been growing for years now, and its threat to Southeast Asia has grown along with it. While the West must always be prepared to combat confrontational moves by Russia and China, it should also work to build diplomatic relations with the surrounding nations — many of whom share similar concerns about the rise of Moscow and Beijing in their region.

Establishment-critical narrative

Russia is simply working with members of the Asia-Pacific region whom the US, Australia, and Japan have left out to dry. Some member states of ASEAN, including Myanmar, have now been negatively impacted by the West's hegemonic pursuits in the region. Russia, however, believes in mutually beneficial cooperation between all states, which is why the US and its friends are stoking confrontation with those who don't bow to their demands.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

This raid is a law enforcement victory. The suspects involved in this investigation had provided lethal drugs like fentanyl to the community unchecked for a ridiculous amount of time, leading to at least one death. It's time that these criminals are held accountable for drug trafficking and they should be punished to the full extent of the law.

Establishment-critical narrative

While it's good that these individual drug traffickers were taken off the street, the reality is that someone else will likely fill their places in a dangerous market. The fact that some of the seized drugs were made to look like candy increases the risk to children and emphasizes the importance of stopping drug trafficking as an entire complex system.

Republican narrative

Despite Weiss reiterating the same story to Garland in an attempt to mislead Congress, testimonies from several US officials suggest that the special counsel does not hold ultimate decision-making power. There have been too many complaints about the Justice Department's meddling in the investigation not to believe that there's a cover-up underway to protect the Biden family.

Democratic narrative

At first, Republicans demanded Trump-appointed Weiss to be named special counsel to independently investigate Hunter Biden as if this would finally make their conspiracy theories true. As that hasn't been the case, they are now pretending that there is something malicious going on to protect the Biden family instead of accepting that they have nothing against Joe Biden.

Nerd narrative

There's a 25% chance that Joe Biden will be impeached by the US House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

There's a gaping hole in the protection provided to US service members and there must be a ban on trafficking this type of information — especially when it comes to transactions with foreign adversaries. Congress can take robust action to protect the men and women of the US armed forces through supportive regulatory processes.

Establishment-critical narrative

This study should be unsettling, particularly to those in Congress. But no one should be shocked because even before the results of the study were published it was obvious individuals' data was being peddled by these brokers. It's not too late to right this wrong, but Congress should have acted years ago and failed to do so.

Narrative A

As voting takes place in multiple states this month, including Chhattisgarh, it is important to remember how much violence and left-wing extremism has been inflicted against the Modi government. Prime Minister Modi and the BJP are focused on making all of India safer so that people can live and thrive in peace. Modi’s government has done wonders for Chhattisgarh in particular, and the BJP will ride the prime minister's success to a resounding electoral victory.

Narrative B

As Modi’s right-wing policies leave many poor people behind, Congress' focus on economic subsidies will play a major role in its political revival. While the BJP has maintained electoral dominance for some time, its power is fraying at the state level, and the opposition alliance will have an opportunity to pry back control. While Modi may win reelection next year, the BJP is at risk of losing support in the long run, and November's election could be the beginning of a major political shift.

Nerd narrative

There is a 75% chance that the BJP will form the government after the Indian general election in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

The president is continuing to fulfill the promises he made to improve the country and grow the economy. Recent polling that shows him trailing former Pres. Donald Trump focused mostly on the economy, so Biden is going to continue showing the public how much his administration is accomplishing in that realm while Republicans attempt to cut crucial funding for vital projects.

Republican narrative

This funding is another Democratic handout to a company that’s never turned a profit and probably never will. This money will probably land in the hands of Biden’s union lackeys, who still get paid large salaries at Amtrak despite the company always being in the red. Democrats never stop foolishly spending taxpayer money.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 43% chance that Trump would defeat Biden if they face-off in the 2024 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.