India's Top Court Refuses New Fraud Probe into Adani Group
India's Supreme Court on Wednesday refused to establish a panel to aid an ongoing probe by the country's market regulator into allegations of fraud by billionaire Gautam Adani's business group.
Instead, the court gave the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) three months to complete its investigations into short seller Hindenburg's reports of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme" by Adani.
Pro-establishment narrative
SEBI is a competent and well-respected authority, and Hindenburg's allegations should not be taken at face value. The Supreme Court's own panel has reiterated its confidence in India's market regulator and, in this case, the agency must be allowed to do its job. If Adani's has engaged in illegal behavior, SEBI will expose the group and act against them. Neither overenthusiastic litigation nor a witch hunt is the answer.
Establishment-critical narrative
There is more than enough evidence pointing to regulatory lapses on SEBI's part. India's money laundering watchdog had informed the market regulator of several shady transactions in the run-up to Hindenburg's disclosures, but nothing was done. The situation is further clouded by the fact that a former SEBI chief has joined an arm of Adani's company. The institution's very integrity is under question.
Nerd narrative
There is a 27% chance of the Adani group regaining a total market capital of $50B before 2028, according to the Metaculus forecasting community.
US National Debt Tops $34T for First Time in History
According to the latest data from the US Dept. of the Treasury, total public debt in America has reached $34T for the first time in history.
As of Dec. 29, 2023, intragovernmental debt — debt the federal government owes to itself — had reached almost $7.1T, while debt held by the public — all debt outside of the US government, less Federal Financing Bank (FFB) securities — sat at $26.9T.
Republican narrative
The White House continues to act as if throwing money at every problem is a solution. The Biden administration’s abysmal deficit record is only superseded by the effects of the COVID pandemic. Democrats are failing the American people by plunging the country further and further into debt through unpopular spending decisions, which could eventually lead to America's economic collapse unless reckless spending is curtailed. Both parties are to blame due to bad Beltway habits but the Democrats have been unscrupulous.
Democratic narrative
The Republicans are using bad-faith rhetoric when it comes to US debt. Historically, US debt has spiraled because of Republican-led tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, most recently spearheaded by the Trump administration. Income inequality must be addressed, and the rich must be taxed fairly. Republicans must acknowledge that’s the real root of the country's financial problems.
Nerd narrative
There is a 50% chance that the US national debt will reach $50T by December 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: US Reaches Deal to Extend Military Presence at Qatar Base
CNN reported on Tuesday — citing three US defense officials and another source allegedly familiar with the matter — that Washington has reached an agreement with Doha to extend its military presence at Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base for another 10 years.
Reuters also reportedly corroborated information about the extension through an anonymous source. The base located in the desert southwest of Doha reputedly hosts the largest US military facility in the Middle East.
Pro-establishment narrative
Over the past twenty years, American operations across the Middle East have shown the importance of the US military footprint in Qatar. Therefore, it's highly positive that the US will be able to continue operating out of Al Udeid for another decade, especially amid escalating conflicts with Iranian-backed militias and regional instability in general.
Establishment-critical narrative
Though America should have been adjusting its overseas basing to be able to address current needs, Washington apparently is unable to abandon a framework that worked in the past. It's certain that Al Udeid was an asset to fight the Taliban, but it's unlike that Doha will ever allow the US to use the base in any operation against Iran and its proxy militias.
Nerd narrative
There's an 8% chance that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Study: 48% of British Teens Feel Addicted to Social Media
According to the University of Cambridge researchers' analysis of data from the Millennium Cohort study, nearly half of British teenagers feel they have become addicted to social media platforms.
The study, carried out by the Centre for Longitudinal Studies at the University of London, examined the lives of more than 18K children born in the UK between 2000 and 2001.
Narrative A
Social media companies have been knowingly enticing and ensnaring young people with their algorithms and misleading the public about the substantial, addictive, and compulsive dangers of their platforms' use — all for profit. Tech giants must pay restitution and develop ways to make their social media products safer for children.
Narrative B
Social media companies generally have robust safety policies and parental controls. They are committed to providing children with age-appropriate, safe, and positive experiences even though they aren't legally liable for harm caused by their platforms. Importantly, more study is needed to determine what real digital addiction is and what the signs and consequences could be.
Narrative C
While the vast power social media companies have acquired is regulated by anemic federal oversight, parents should have greater control over their teenage and adolescents' social media use. Social media companies may or may not bend their knees, which is why parents must become their offspring's first line of defense.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance at least 72% of the world population will use the internet in 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Scientists Exploring Alzheimer's Therapy Based on Exercise Plasma
A hospital in Norway is testing the effects of ExPlas — or exercised plasma — which is where the blood of young and healthy adults who exercise regularly is injected into older adults in the early stages of Alzheimer's. Scientists hope the results, to be available in 2025, will show that ExPlas can strengthen the minds and bodies of older people, and maybe even the general population living sedentary lives.
The blood plasma — taken from healthy, fit men — will be injected into patients12 times in one year. They will be selected at random to receive either ExPlas, Octaplasma — a blood-specific solution containing human plasma proteins — or a placebo. During the study, patients will be tested on their daily recollection, recognition, executive function, and fluency skills.
Narrative A
The pharmaceutical industry is on a roll when it comes to innovation. The world will likely have to wait just a bit more before these extremely helpful drugs are available and can help conditions like Alzheimer's. But if the progress made in recent years continues, humans will be reaping unprecedented benefits.
Narrative B
It's too soon to tout the benefits of these types of treatments. The healthcare industry has to start holistically and comprehensively supporting people whose genetics have predispositions to complex conditions like Alzheimer's, cancer, depression, and heart disease. A simple "exercise in a pill" or injection may help but it can't be the only tool in the toolkit.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that at least 13.2% of US adults will have Diabetes (type 1 and 2) in 2032, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US House Committee to Begin Mayorkas Impeachment Proceedings
Republicans from the US House of Representatives are moving forward with steps to impeach Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas over his alleged mishandling of issues surrounding the US-Mexico border.
The House Homeland Security Committee has announced it will hold its first impeachment hearing, titled "Havoc in the Heartland: How Secretary Mayorkas' Failed Leadership Has Impacted the States."
Democratic narrative
A bipartisan vote to impeach Mayorkas already failed, showing that both parties reject this baseless GOP witchhunt. There is no reason Mayorkas should be impeached and all efforts to do so are a gross waste of time and taxpayer money. Many more important homeland security issues could benefit from the attention that this stunt is getting.
Republican narrative
There is a crisis occurring at the United State's southern border. Mayorkas has failed to deal with this and uphold his oath of office, and he should be held accountable for that. As Secretary of Homeland Security, Mayorkas' flawed decision-making and refusal to enforce laws passed by Congress caused the immigration situation in the US to grow out of control. There must be accountability.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance that Joe Biden will be impeached by the House of Representatives, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Claudine Gay Resigns as Harvard President
Harvard President Claudine Gay — the first Black leader of the school — on Tuesday resigned her position in the face of allegations that she plagiarized several academic writings, and weeks after her controversial testimony in front of the US Congress about campus antisemitism.
Gay, who denied plagiarizing any works, said in a statement that she was distressed over her "commitments to confronting hate and upholding scholarly rigor" being challenged by critics.
Right narrative
It's about time that Gay, a serial plagiarizer who made deeply concerning remarks about antisemitism, was held accountable. Her feckless response to the hate running rampant on her campus since October should've gotten her canned long ago. But this is what we've come to expect from the leftist institutions of indoctrination that pass themselves off as institutions of higher learning. More must be done to clean abhorrent ideologies out of America's university administrations.
Left narrative
The right's bad faith crusade against diversity in education and its attempt to undermine, and eventually remove, every Black leader who’s elevated to a higher position has taken another victim. Harvard has set a bad example by caving and allowing Gay to step down, but there’s still an opportunity to fight back against these attacks, and in turn, continue the fight to integrate people from marginalized communities into the power structure of these institutions.
Iran: Deadly Explosions Strike Soleimani Ceremony
Two bombs exploded in Iran during a ceremony commemorating the fourth year since former Iranian General Qassem Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike in Iraq. According to Iranian officials, at least 95 people were killed and more than 200 injured by Wednesday's explosions (with numbers being revised by Iranian officials).
Iran said the explosions, which occurred near Soleimani's grave site in the southeastern city of Kerman — roughly 820 kilometers (510 miles) away from the capital Tehran — were a "terrorist attack," but didn't provide any potential causes. The two bombs went off one after the other, with three paramedics reportedly being killed as they rushed in to help after the first blast.
Anti-Iran narrative
This is likely another example of Iranian nationals using terrorism to fight against the brutal regime. Following decades of oppression, Iran has unfortunately experienced a growing number of militant groups using violence as a means to put pressure on the authoritarian state. The world should not look at the West or Israel but rather the numerous armed and exiled groups whom Tehran has persecuted in the past. Violence in Iran sadly has been a self-fulfilling prophecy due to a repressive regime.
Pro-Iran narrative
As the enemies of Iran continue to instigate violence against the country and its people, Tehran knows who they are and where to find them. This evil act will be investigated thoroughly and its perpetrators swiftly brought to justice. Terrorism as a means of political action has never won over the hearts of Iranians, and this time will be no different — this means investigating and bringing to justice actors both domestic and foreign.
Nerd narrative
There is a 29% chance that a state-based conflict between Israel and Iran will cause at least 1K deaths before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Hezbollah Leader Responds to Killing of Hamas Deputy Chief
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on Wednesday that Israel's killing of the Deputy Chief of Hamas's Political Bureau, Saleh al-Arouri, in Beirut on Tuesday was a “dangerous” act that required a response. Nasrallah also said that Israel suffered a strategic defeat in the region since the Oct. 7 attack and Hezbollah is not afraid of an all-out war with Israel, adding that it is willing to fight with “no limits." Nasrallah also claimed that the US was fueling the war in Gaza and preventing a ceasefire.
Nasrallah said that the Palestinian cause had been revived and support for Hamas among Palestinians had increased. He also went on to state that Hamas acted independently and the Oct. 7 attack was "a Palestinian operation of which we were not aware," though Nasrallah did specify that he did not intend to distance Hezbollah from the attack with these comments. Nasrallah also said that the war had been "the greatest challenge" to the resistance in recent months and Hezbollah was fighting Israel on the border "with precise calculations."
Pro-establishment narrative
Though, of course, Israel has a right to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities and defend itself from terror, regional escalation is simply not in the interest of the US or Israel. A war with Hezbollah in Lebanon would be a disaster and likely spiral into an all-out regional war with Iran. Israel should focus on extricating Hamas from the Gaza Strip in a humane way and eliminating Hamas's leadership.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though this has been a tragic war, Israel must eliminate Hamas and restore deterrence with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Hezbollah is a terrorist army with far greater military capabilities than Hamas, and Israel cannot allow its citizens residing in the north to live under the constant threat of terrorist attacks. The UN resolution that ended the 2006 war with Hezbollah has failed to ensure Israel's security, and if some sort of new arrangement is not made, Israel will be forced to intervene.
Narrative C
Hezbollah will deal with Israel's belligerent and aggressive behavior at a time it deems most advantageous, as the Lebanese resistance does not just react to security incidents but makes painstaking calculations to both deter Israel from violating Lebanon's sovereignty and avoid an unnecessary and destructive escalation. Israel, backed by the US, is committing atrocious crimes in Gaza to which Hezbollah has been forced to respond.
Nerd narrative
There's a 0.2% chance that Lebanon will come under French rule again before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Texas: Court Rules Abortions Not Required Under Emergency Guidance
The 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday rejected the Biden administration’s appeal of a district court ruling that prevented enforcement of the administration’s emergency care law guidance that said hospitals “must” provide abortion services if the mother’s life is at risk.
Texas, which has banned most forms of abortion since the US Supreme Court ended the federal right to abortions in 2022, joined with abortion opponents in suing to stop the guidance, which the administration took from the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (EMTALA) of 1986.
Republican narrative
When SCOTUS overturned Roe it returned the power to regulate abortions to the states. Federal guidance doesn’t supersede state law in this or any other matter. Texas’ abortion law contains exceptions to protect the life of the mother, but the federal government doesn’t have the right to mandate hospitals to perform specific medical procedures.
Democratic narrative
America should be outraged at how this ruling disregards the safety of women in life-threatening situations related to their pregnancy. This ruling essentially prevents hospitals from acting swiftly during an emergency lest they perform an abortion that doesn’t meet the state’s vague standards necessary for an exception to its abortion ban. This is shameful.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 5% chance that elective abortion will be banned nationally in the US before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.