Narrative A

A seismically vulnerable nation, Japan's tsunami solution is mostly still a work in progress, with no single-point answer yet on the horizon. There remains much to learn, and existing countermeasures are constantly being refined and improved. Strategic location of buildings, vegetation, seawalls, buffer zones, and tsunami warning zones are only some of the steps the nation has already taken, besides developing strong government-public coordination and understanding.

Narrative B

Prevention and precaution are, of course, the touchstones of any disaster management policy. Nevertheless, that doesn't take away from the need to prepare for the aftermath. Japan's 2011 experience has taught the nation that laying a plan for eventualities is paramount. Be it creating business continuity blueprints or pre-arranged agreements with private and public institutions to coordinate and manage rescue and resettlement, more needs to be done.

Nerd narrative

There's an 18% chance that there will be a tsunami that kills at least 50K people before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-North Korea narrative

Kim Jong Un will never give up the nuclear weapons program as it's essential for the DPRK's survival. The North Korean leader is simply boosting national defenses to prepare for a war that can break out any time on the peninsula — thanks to Washington, which has deployed a nuclear-powered submarine in South Korea and is conducting joint drills as "intentional nuclear war provocative moves."

Anti-North Korea Narrative

North Korea's nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to South Korea and the US. Since 2022, Pyongyang has conducted over 100 missile tests, launched a reconnaissance satellite, and test-fired the most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile in its arsenal — prompting Seoul and Washington to expand their joint military drills. It isn't the US but North Korea that's being reckless and provocative.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance of a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

A well-thought-out constitution provides the scaffolding of reason and justice to a democracy. Israel's lack of a constitution is partly made up for by the "reasonableness" doctrine and the venerable Basic Laws which, together, give the judiciary an oversight into lawmaking in the country, as well as the essential guardrails to keep laws from turning abusive. Benjamin Netanyahu's government looked to rampage through these safeguards, but it's now been stopped right in its tracks.

Right narrative

The government of Israel has long been operating with one arm tied behind its back. Judicial interference cannot be allowed to suppress the voice and aspirations of a nation's majority without undermining democracy. Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed judicial reforms seek to bring a semblance of balance to governance in Israel. Monday's pushback by the judiciary has only proven the government's point all over again.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be prime minister of Israel by Jan., 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The landmark agreement is a first step towards restoring Ethiopia's historic right of access to the Red Sea. It's also a step that not only advances regional integration but allows the Ethiopian government to continue its leadership in maintaining peace and stability in the region. It should also be noted that Somalia previously rejected a request from Ethiopia for talks on granting maritime access. Furthermore, it's Mogadishu that is deliberately undermining regional peace by supporting Egypt's hardline position on the Ethiopian Nile Dam dispute for geopolitical reasons.

Narrative B

The agreement proves yet again the Ethiopian regime's blatant disregard for international law. The Memorandum is not worth the paper it is written on, as Somaliland is an integral part of Somali territory according to the Somali constitution. That the deal was signed only days after the breakthrough agreement between Mogadishu and Hargeisa is a deliberate provocation by the Abiy regime, which wants to profit from domestic Somali tensions. It's now up to the international community to put pressure on Addis Ababa to prevent a possible escalation into a regional conflict.

Nerd narrative

There is a 30% chance that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

Time takes its toll, and even a brilliant monarch like Queen Margrethe II must leave the responsibility to the next generation. During her five-decade reign, her communications skills restored support for the monarchy in the fairly homogenous and patriotic country of 6M people. What a blessing it would be if King Charles could deliver his messages as she does directly and forthright.

Left narrative

A political system in which heads of state and other high officials are determined by birthright has inherent flaws — but it's even worse that most of them are fitted with such power to their death. As Queen Margrethe II follows her fellow monarchs from Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain in abdicating to keep institutions functioning properly, Britain should learn at least this lesson if no constitutional reform is to be made.

Nerd narrative

There's a 54% chance that Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden will all have Queens regnant simultaneously before the year 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Right narrative

With stopping the boats being one of Sunak's core pledges having entered office, the Home Office's statistics are a welcome return for the government and a positive start to 2024. While it's clear that there is much more to do, and the near-return channel crossing levels seen in 2021 will not satisfy anyone, progress is certainly being made — especially compared to the dangerous upward trends being witnessed across the rest of Europe.

Left narrative

With 2023 being the second-highest year for channel crossings since the problem's rise, Sunak has in no way delivered on his promise and finished 2023 having completed only one of his five pledges. The administration has failed to remedy the problem created on its own watch and continues to hedge bets on popularity via gimmick policies such as the Rwanda Bill rather than truly attempting to revive the UK.

Nerd narrative

There is a 90% chance that the Labour Party will have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Mass killings today are often part of a broader online network — either officially or unofficially — of enablers who push potential perpetrators to commit acts of violence in public. Under the current law, whereby domestic killers are charged only under regular criminal codes, police are unable to go after those who are egging on and supporting domestic terrorists. If these dangerous actions are designated as terrorism, not only will police have more resources to investigate killings but work to prevent them in the first place.

Narrative B

Violent acts should be punished, but broadening the definition of terrorism would go beyond acts and criminalize beliefs. US law enforcement has already discriminated against Muslims by quickly deeming them terrorists while their non-Muslim counterparts are "lone wolves." However, broadening the definition to allow the government to oppress more ideologies linked to past violent attacks — from animal rights activists to White supremacists — would only create a more dystopian and intrusive police state.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US murder rate will be at least 5.65 per 100k inhabitants in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community

Narrative A

Moving works like Steamboat Willy Mickey into the public domain helps feed the veins of creativity and inspiration of modern-day artists. A wide array of new ideas are already being formulated by artists and writers alike — imagining different uses for Mickey, and the other characters, songs, and stories, that can now be used in various mediums. Building off these works keeps the arts going.

Narrative B

Whether the arts will be advanced by these works becoming part of the public domain remains to be seen. In the past, and this situation, we've seen beloved characters used for untasteful derivative purposes that do nothing but allow creators to make a quick buck through crass internet monetization. Already Mickey is popping up in works that will do nothing but make the public miss the true intent of the original artform.

Nerd narrative

There's a 69% chance at least 10 of the 20 highest-grossing new movies in the year 2050 will be remakes of previous movies or continuations of previous movie franchises, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

A more horrific disaster was averted — the Japan Airlines' cabin crew and airport authorities must be commended for pulling off a miracle. It's next to impossible to rescue 379 people from a fireball-like accident, however, the passenger plane's crew safely evacuated everyone before the aircraft split into two, and officials on the ground ensured that the accident didn't affect deliveries of earthquake relief supplies or cause damage to parked planes. Despite the tragic loss of life from this incident, a truly horrific catastrophe was avoided.

Narrative B

The evacuation of the Japan Airlines plane should indeed be praised as a success. However, the investigators must find all answers — including how the aircraft, which had no engine problem or issued no mayday alert and entered the runway as normal for landing, skidded down the tarmac and collided with the coastguard's maritime patrol plane after landing. An in-depth probe must be conducted to ensure a similar disaster never occurs again.

Narrative A

This shocking knife attack reflects how politically polarized South Korea is. The South risks dangerously descending into destructive chaos where incidents of political violence may be normalized if leaders from both sides fail to address the root causes. South Korea must isolate extremists and promote reconciliation to heal society.

Narrative B

It's unlikely that an alleged surge in political violence is behind this stabbing. As previously seen in South Korea and also in Japan, individual assailants are often either mentally insane or have personal grudges toward political leaders and may seize the opportunity to easily attack their targets when not in office. Rather than focusing on extremists, officials should improve accountability and openness.

Nerd narrative

There's a 14% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a unified sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

Everyone knows that the Colorado Supreme Court is thwarting democracy with its attempt to remove former Pres. Donald Trump from the state's Republican presidential primary ballot, and this incident has nothing to do with that injustice. It's extremely bad faith and dangerous to make this correlation in today's polarized, left-leaning media environment. Thankfully no one was hurt, and hopefully, Colorado shows that it cares about the will of the people.

Democratic narrative

While Tuesday’s shooting currently doesn't appear to be related to the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove Donald Trump from the primary ballot, there are still threats against the court’s justices from MAGA extremists. The insurrection on January 6th showed that Trump's fanatical supporters will resort to violence to defend him and police should not let their guards down. Right-wing extremism is still a major threat, and the Colorado Supreme Court justices must continue to be protected.

Nerd narrative

There is a 90% chance that Donald Trump's name will appear on the ballot in the state of Colorado on Election day if he is the Republican Nominee for President, according to the Metaculus prediction community.