Narrative A

This study has validated widespread concerns about potential side effects stemming from the experimental jabs people were coerced to take during the pandemic amid calls to "trust the science," showing that the so-called conspiracy theorists were right to question the safety of COVID vaccines.

Narrative B

Given that side effects aren't exclusive to shots against COVID, it's always essential to analyze the risks and benefits of getting vaccinated or a booster jab. The study validates that vaccine-related risks — which have previously drawn controversy and problems in relation to public health — are extremely rare, with adverse and more severe effects more probable to stem from infection than vaccination.

Narrative C

The publication of this report risks heightening vaccine hesitancy, rather than addressing it. Although there was good initial uptake of COVID vaccines, medical professionals have observed widespread hesitation about subsequent, updated doses, making it all the more crucial to encourage confidence in the preventative treatment. Nuanced reporting of this kind is beneficial for the scientific community's understanding, but the specificity of continuing hesitancy about COVID jabs over other sorts of vaccines suggests more must be done to stem the spread of misinformation.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the US FDA and CDC will recommend at least 6 SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine doses for at least 15% of the US on Dec. 31, 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Australia undoubtedly has a major naval problem to solve. From worn-out vessels and spiraling costs of delayed projects to a shortage of manpower, the country must solve a host of issues to be ready for future conflicts. Its mega plan is a step in the right direction, but given chronic personnel shortfalls, there's no certainty that Australia's naval revolution will be a success.

Narrative B

Australia's naval shakeup announcement comes shortly after a defense review last year pointed to a gaping hole in its strategic capabilities. To that extent, the "Australianization" of its capabilities and the expansion of its ship-building muscle is a welcome step by Canberra. It will accelerate Australia's move towards becoming a world-class naval power in the Indo-Pacific, giving its allies more confidence in its capabilities in a dramatically evolving strategic theater.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that Australia will commission its first nuclear-powered submarine by May 2038, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

There is a classic coup d'etat underway in Haiti right now, as Prime Minister Henry takes advantage of the country's corrupt justice system to unjustly persecute his opponents. It's Henry himself who benefited the most from the killing of Moïse, and — all too coincidentally — he had telephone contact with Badio the night of the murder.

Narrative B

While Prime Minister Henry has been accused of being complicit in the killing and now using the state machinery to advance his agenda, it's undeniably strange that Martine told people in the National Palace, just two days after the death of her husband, that Moïse hadn't done anything "for us" in office and that she wanted to succeed him with the help of Claude Joseph.

Nerd narrative

There is a 66% chance that Haiti will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-China narrative

The C919, a prominent symbol of Beijing's broader "Made in China" strategy, is the PRC's answer to Western-made Airbus and Boeing. It will not only break the dominant planemakers' hold on the international passenger market and make COMAC the third competitor in the global aviation sector but also help advance the PRC's footprint worldwide, reduce its reliance on foreign technology, challenge the US dominance of China's market, and strengthen Beijing's position as an aviation hub.

Anti-China narrative

The fact that the aircraft is only authorized to fly in the PRC and relies on international supply chains makes it far-fetched to suggest that Beijing's "homegrown" C919 could challenge Airbus and Boeing. Moreover, besides cost and production issues, rising tensions between Beijing and Washington could make it difficult for COMAC to get certification from the US and European regulators and penetrate international markets. With the capacity to fly between five and six hours, the C919 is, at best, perfect for regional travel.

Nerd narrative

There's a 16% chance that there will be a commercial service to travel between London and New York City in under three hours before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

South Korea's doctor's unions are effectively holding their ailing patients hostage to stop a public policy favored by the vast majority of the population. 90% of people support the increase in medical students. This proposal is in line with other major economies working to meet the needs of their aging populations. The striking doctors are not focused on the needs of patients here.

Narrative B

The current labor shortage isn't taking place throughout the entire medical field but rather a select number of specialty fields that endure uniquely low wages and hour work weeks. The proposed increase in medical students won't help with this shortage — it will continue to bring wages down for struggling doctors while also lowering the quality of education at medical schools.

Nerd narrative

There's a 10% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks, whether from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US will always support Israel in maintaining its security. However, Netanyahu is going too far with the war in Gaza, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises and compromise as needed so that another extended truce can take effect, which will hopefully lead to a more permanent resolution to this conflict. The Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but Pres. Joe Biden needs to take a step back from his criticisms of Israel's Prime Minister. Netanyahu is a complicated figure, and Biden has a re-election campaign to worry about, which has created understandable tension between the two. However, Biden must understand that he should be pressuring Hamas terrorists — who have not made a single positive step in finding a compromise — instead of Israel. Israel will pursue its goals, which are incredibly popular with its citizens, regardless of whether it annoys Washington.

Pro-Palestine narrative

As Israel's slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza continues unabated, the Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to cheap tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal campaign. Regardless of how the administration tries to spin it, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Indeed, Israel's war on Gaza would be unsustainable without US support, and Biden should enact concrete policy to stop the violence.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that a shared power arrangement will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

The Michigan court system rightly punished Powell and her associates for trying to bring a completely unfounded claim to trial. The judicial system is not a place to spread dangerous conspiracies, which is why the district court sanctioned them and the appeals court upheld the decision. Any lawyer who wishes to politicize the courts will now think twice.

Pro-Trump narrative

While Powell has been turned into a conspiracy theorist caricature by the left, the truth is that election integrity is an issue in 2020 and going forward. The problem is that Powell attempted to broaden the scope of the case too much with too little time. The amount of evidence needed to bring such a case is very difficult, as shown by Powell's unfortunate failure to do so.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that any state will refuse to certify its election results during the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus Prediction community.

Narrative A

The merger between Capital One and Discover is yet another victory for the US’ largest banks and lenders and another loss for consumers and competition. As millions of Americans drown in credit card debt, the leaders of two industry giants struck a deal that will only grow their wealth and stranglehold on the US economy. Perhaps regulators will intervene and stop this megacompany from forming, but it's tough to rein in these corporations that have captured so many people.

Narrative B

Companies have an obligation to deliver profits for their shareholders, and large mergers and acquisitions have been a core part of the American economy for years. Both Capital One and Discover reached a beneficial agreement that will help their shareholders and customers and allow them to offer enhanced services. It's also important to remember that both of these companies have been dealing with inflation and other economic troubles over the past few years, so this deal is very important on many grounds.

Nerd narrative

There is a 48% chance that US Household-Debt-to-GDP will surpass 100% before 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Former Pres. Conde's attempt to create a new Constitution was a sad state of affairs, especially due to it resulting in a military coup. Regional African bodies have been inconsistent and weak in their enforcement of rules and sanctions, which is likely why Doumbouya has taken so long to pursue his promised return to civilian rule. If West African states like Guinea are going to progress, neighboring states and international partners will have to apply more pressure.

Establishment-critical narrative

When observing all the West African coups in recent years, it's important to know that before almost all of them, the US military had been training the same men that later overthrew their governments. US Green Berets were training Mamady Doumbouya in the summer of 2021, during which he and his men took a break from the course and violently overthrew the president. The US Dept. of State and Pentagon should be questioned about these conveniently timed coups.

Establishment-critical narrative

As lawmakers in the US, as well as the rest of the world, grapple with the mind-boggling potential of AI, it's fair to question how regulation could be enacted and if it's even possible. From executive orders to Congressional bills and bureaucratic rulings, every power center has tried to get a grip on AI for nearly a year. The complex world of AI is still evolving, and there are many factors that make it difficult for Congress, or any other group, to enact meaningful safeguards.

Pro-establishment narrative

The House’s newly created AI task force is a bipartisan coalition that is comprised of the body’s most experienced representatives who have backgrounds in artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. Dealing with rapidly evolving technology such as AI is no easy task, but Congress is deeply committed to understanding AI and promoting policies that will promote the technology’s benefits while mitigating its threats. This is a moment of both political parties rising to the occasion together.

Nerd narrative

There is a 90% chance that the US will pass legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.