Pro-establishment narrative

The US passage of a $60B military aid package for Ukraine is a positive step towards addressing the issue of Kyiv's ammunition shortages, but it's just as important that European countries plug their own spending gaps and elevate their aid commitments. If Ukraine continues to fall short of ammunition and key supplies, it will face a slow-motion defeat on the battlefield that would spell disaster for the risk of future Russian expansionism against NATO.

Pro-Russia narrative

Following the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has now clearly failed. Committing further funding to arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have attempted to fight this war against Russia without US and EU weapons. Now that this support is running dry, Ukraine must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.

Nerd narrative

There is a 21% chance that Russia will have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine by January 1, 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Ursula von der Leyen was unanimously chosen by the CDU to remain as the executive commission's candidate. This decision sends a strong message to Europe, as the European Peoples Party (EPP), which is dominated by Christian Democrats, is anticipated to maintain its majority in the legislature following the European elections that take place in June. It's unlikely that any other candidate will be able to realistically challenge von der Leyen for the job.

Establishment-critical narrative

Ursula von der Leyen was confirmed by the EU Parliament and selected by EU leaders in 2019, lacking any form of democratic legitimacy. In the upcoming election, the European people will once again not vote on the Commission's executive. Rather, the political party with the highest percentage of votes will choose the presidency. Von der Leyen's path to remain commissioner is a glaring illustration of the EU's democratic shortcomings.

Nerd narrative

There is a 78% chance that the President of the European Commission will be affiliated with the EPP following the 2024 elections, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

While the Houthis claim that their operations are only directed against Israeli-linked commercial vessels, their attacks have disrupted maritime trade. Moreover, the Yemeni terrorists are being supported on the ground with weapons and intelligence by Tehran in its asymmetric war against Israel in violation of international law. Should Iran continue with its destabilizing and threatening tactics, the US must also consider direct strikes against the regime.

Establishment-critical narrative

Even the latest illegal aggression against Yemen will not deter the Houthis from continuing to attack the Israeli regime's maritime supply line. The US is deliberately causing the escalation in the Red Sea to distract from its direct support of Israel in its cruel campaign against the people of Gaza. However, Washington's calculation is not working out and instead represents a strategic blunder that only reinforces the regional isolation of the US and Israel.

Nerd narrative

There is a 13% chance, that the US and Iran will be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

As more information emerges, the world will move from assuming this was an assassination to knowing it was. Putin, who chose to commit this murder around the time of the NATO security conference, has a long history of destroying all opposition. He won't be stopped until someone in his own orbit or from outside of Russia decides to rid the world of his dictatorial regime.

Pro-Russia narrative

The West has been pushing unproven propaganda about Navalny since the so-called assassination attempt in 2020. Now, with their self-proclaimed "opposition leader" having died of unknown causes, the anti-Russia powers that be will again spread unfounded rhetoric and accusations. The autopsy hasn't even been conducted and Western powers are already drawing fallacious conclusions.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold the office of President of Russia by December 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

As its highlands have long struggled with violence, internal security, more broadly, remains a key concern for PNG. However, the failure of the state to prevent the influx of illegal high-powered firearms and ammunition into the region has exacerbated the conflict and made clashes deadlier. The latest ambush has renewed attention to Prime Minister Marape's incompetence in providing grassroots solutions. If he can't prevent massacres of unprecedented intensity, Marape should step down.

Narrative B

Tribal violence isn't uncommon in PNG, however, police couldn't foresee it and had limited resources to deal with Sunday's massive ambush. In their quest for revenge killing and retribution, these tribes are breaking the law and creating instability. Marape's government is striving to curb the security issues and coordinating with community leaders to defuse tensions. Until the warring factions lay down their weapons, these long-held disputes will remain unresolved.

Establishment-critical narrative

Hungary and China are showing the world how a bilateral relationship based on trust and mutual respect can be beneficial to both the parties involved. China's offer now to further deepen their strategic ties indicates that the two nations' warming is gaining steam. Together, the leaders of the two nations are shaping a comprehensive partnership that will be a truly multi-polar model for the world to follow.

Pro-establishment narrative

Hungary's "Eastern Opening" policy, which has led to its newfound love for China, could be leading the country towards disaster. This also endangers the EU by giving Beijing a dangerous foothold in Europe. Frequently criticized for his authoritarian tendencies, Orban has found a willing partner in China, while Beijing may be keen on using Hungary's key position in the EU to swing matters in a concerning geopolitical direction on the world stage.

Nerd narrative

There is a 15% chance that Hungary will leave the EU by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-Palestine narrative

What Israel is currently doing to Palestine is nothing new. Going back to Israel's ethnic cleansing of Palestinians during the 1948 Nakba, Israel's goal has always been to displace and kill civilians through starvation and military assaults to achieve its goal of complete dominance over the region. Based on historical precedent, there is a tremendous concern for Rafah if Israel isn't told to stop.

Pro-Israel narrative

As far as historical precedent is concerned, Hamas has a long history of luring mass groups of Palestinians into tightly packed cities — this time Rafah — so that it can later blame Israel when civilians die in the crossfire. Both Israel and the Palestinian Authority have called for a cease-fire in exchange for a hostage release, but Hamas is hindering these efforts through its continued attacks and flagrant use of human shields.

Nerd narrative

There's a 59% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

In March 2023, the UN was successful in getting nearly 200 countries to agree to and sign a global "High Seas Treaty." The treaty is meant to provide legal tools to enforce laws and regulations applied to marine fisheries and protected areas against mining, overfishing, and other activities that could deplete the rich biodiversity of the oceans. This is a huge win in preserving oceans and protecting marine life and must be enforced in areas like offshore Argentina.

Narrative B

Despite the signing of the High Seas Treaty, it's very unlikely that such a robust regulation mechanism will be ratified. The treaty must be ratified by 60 countries before implementation can occur. Countries like Russia stand in the way of ratification because, while not blocking the signing, Moscow has clearly stated that it finds the treaty to be "unacceptable." Without major nations signing on, there's little hope that others will follow suit, and areas like the Blue Hole will be in peril.

Nerd narrative

There's a 53% chance that the Billion Oyster Project restore will 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Anti-Trump narrative

Proven by the licensing address of this shoe manufacturer being the same as one of his golf resorts, Donald Trump is tied financially to the sale of these shoes. However, despite his efforts to pretend that this isn't a scheme to bring in income after losing yet another multi-million-dollar lawsuit, the only result of this cynical stunt is the continued trivialization of his legal losses.

Pro-Trump narrative

Donald Trump has never lost his supporters because he does what old-fashioned Republicans would never do — not give up. As Democrats seek to win by trying to put their primary political opponent in jail, Trump continues to meet regular Americans where they are and provide to them about what they care about. Donald Trump isn't the one trivializing the weaponized justice system — he's the one poking fun at its institutional rot.

Nerd narrative

There’s a 51% chance that Trump would win a 2024 presidential election matchup with Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

The old Republican-drawn maps turned the state into a slice of Swiss cheese, carving out detached districts to ensure the GOP always won big. While the Republicans may still achieve a majority in the upcoming election, the state will look a lot more representative than in the past. Democrats should celebrate this historic win against gerrymandering and work hard to capitalize on the actual representative democracy the people have been asking for.

Republican narrative

Wisconsin's maps were deemed appropriate for years under the supervision of state courts and legislatures as well as federal courts. It was only after Protasiewicz — who, in an unprecedented fashion, campaigned on ordering a redraw — was elected that their fairness was questioned. The sad irony here is that Wisconsin Democrats have just used court-ordered gerrymandering in their so-called fight against gerrymandering.

Establishment-critical narrative

Both Democrats and Republicans gerrymander massively, making American democracy far from fair. Election laws should change.

Narrative A

For many years the NBA All-Star Game has been essentially unwatchable, but Sunday’s debacle took the event to a new level. With an absurd 97 pointers attempted, it's clear that none of the players care one iota about the game. Careening through the historic point barrier is unacceptable. Adam Silver has tried many different twists to reignite the exhibition game, but after this performance, this event can't be saved.

Narrative B

Amid the controversy, the NBA All-Star Game saw history be made, and the exhibition was filled with highlights and fascinating moments. Obviously, the match doesn't have the same fire as a normal game, but the beauty of the All-Star Game is showcasing the league's brightest stars all on one stage. At the end of the day, a historic record fell — All-Star Weekend is about fun, and the contest is filled with it.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Wilt Chamberlain's single-game NBA scoring record will be broken before at least January 1, 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.