Opinion | No Biden, no problem: Asean just has to forge its own path
South China Morning PostAug 31, 2023
The Facts
Southeast Asian leaders have gathered in Indonesia’s capital Jakarta for their final summit this year to discuss a litany of divisive issues including Myanmar’s civil conflict, violent disputes in the South China Sea, and the tense US-China rivalry.
The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting, which started on Tuesday under tight security, will be followed by wide-ranging talks with Asian and Western counterparts on Wednesday and Thursday.
The Spin
Narrative A
Joe Biden’s absence from the ASEAN summit came down to priorities, and the US president decided that attending the G20 meeting in India was more important than addressing the ASEAN leaders. Moreover, the US is still sending Vice President Harris to the meetings, which is hardly a snub of the bloc. Ultimately, it's hard to be in two places at once and Biden had to choose which foreign summit to attend.
Narrative B
Skipping the ASEAN gathering in Jakarta is a shortsighted mistake that contradicts the Biden administration's alleged willingness to build a stronger relationship with Asia as a whole to counter China. It's certain that some countries are more important to the US than others, but snubbing Indonesia, a vibrant democracy and a major regional power, suggests that the US wants simply a marriage of convenience.
Pro-China narrative
Biden’s absence from the ASEAN summit is far more calculated and nefarious than it seems on the surface. His administration is solely concerned about the region when it comes to its geopolitical tensions with China as it looks to turn ASEAN countries against Asia’s largest economy. The fact is, ASEAN countries haven’t bent their knee to the US, so Biden is sending a message by skipping their summit.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership will have at least 12 parties on December 31, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.