Report: US Must Prepare Simultaneous Wars With China, Russia

    Report: US Must Prepare Simultaneous Wars With China, Russia
    Photo: Verity

    The Facts

    • A new bipartisan congressional report released Thursday calls on the US to step up its military readiness for potential simultaneous wars with China and Russia and to expand its conventional and nuclear arms arsenal.

    • The 160-page report, issued by the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the US, argues that Washington is "ill-prepared" and lacks a comprehensive strategy to deal with the prospect of facing two states having the same nuclear power as US forces.


    The Spin

    Establishment-critical narrative

    The Congressional report sounds more like a military-industrial complex public relations stunt than a serious study. Its conclusions are irresponsible given that any decision to boost the number of US strategic nuclear weapons risks triggering a new nuclear arms race with China and Russia. Instead of following the archaic Cold War logic with unpredictable consequences for the US and the world, it would be in the US national security interest to pursue arms control and disarmament diplomacy.

    Pro-establishment narrative

    The report is a powerful reminder that the US needs to adjust its strategic posture and strengthen its nuclear deterrent given China and Russia's nuclear modernization push and aggressive foreign policies. If Washington hopes to protect the rules-based international order, US nuclear strategy must remain effective in a two-nuclear-peer arena, which also requires higher defense spending. The Cold War teaches that autocratic regimes understand only the language of deterrence.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that the next "Great Power" war will occur by July 2048, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



    Establishment split

    CRITICAL

    PRO

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