Thousands Flee to Thailand Amid Renewed Myanmar Fighting

    Photo: AFP [via Al Jazeera]

    The Facts

    • Thai officials on Thursday said thousands of people have fled into Thailand's province of Tak to escape fighting between the Myanmar military and rebels that recently broke out near Karen State's bordering town of Myawaddy.

    • Public broadcaster Thai PBS, citing an unidentified security official, reported that over 5K civilians, including 800 children, crossed the border from eastern Myanmar to seek refuge this week after ethnic Karen rebels, along with the pro-democracy People's Defense Force, attacked two Myanmar government outposts.


    The Spin

    Establishment-critical narrative

    Regional stakeholders such as ASEAN and China have sought to smooth things over to ensure peace and stability in Myanmar, but Western support for armed resistance and political extremist action have bolstered pro-National Unity Government (NUG) militants to descend the country into civil war. Myanmar is in chaos, and the NUG's calls for revolution will only make it worse.

    Pro-establishment narrative

    The UN and ASEAN have tried and failed to change the military junta's bloodthirsty behavior that has caused thousands of deaths and atrocious crimes against humanity since its disastrous coup in February 2021. Since there will be no sustainable peace while this illegitimate, corrupt regime remains in power, it is time for the US and its allies to unequivocally support the popular resistance movement.

    Nerd narrative

    There's a 50% chance that at least 167K refugees will be admitted to the US from 2021 to 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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