Myanmar’s junta may be on the verge of ‘collapse’
Washington PostDec 07, 2023
The Facts
According to a report published by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs on Monday, Myanmar faces an imminent humanitarian crisis as one-third of its population reportedly needs assistance amid the escalating conflict between the ruling military and ethnic minority fighters.
Furthermore, the UN has urged the international community to prevent the Southeast Asian country from becoming "a forgotten emergency," as it seeks to raise nearly $1B in donations next year for 5.3M people identified as priorities for assistance.
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
After nearly three years in power, Myanmar's military junta is finally losing its grip on power and its rationale for governing, as pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups joined forces to defeat the regime. As mismanaging the junta's collapse could create total bloody chaos, the Biden administration and other international actors must step in to prepare the exiled National Unity Government.
Establishment-critical narrative
On top of it being premature to talk about a potential military junta collapse in Myanmar due to the absence of central command in the opposition, such a development would be risky, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would likely not be able to advance a contingency plan after failing to implement its Five-Point Consensus. A negotiated solution is the only way out of this crisis.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Myanmar will no longer be classified as being in a state of civil war by 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.