Brazil saw an attempted coup, even if a failed one
The Brazilian ReportJan 18, 2023
Brazil: Military Leaders Implicate Bolsonaro in Coup Conspiracy
The Facts
According to court documents released on Friday, Brazil's former Pres. Jair Bolsonaro presented two former military commanders with a plan for him to remain in power despite his defeat in the 2022 election.
Former army commander Marco Antônio Freire Gomes and former air force commander Carlos Baptista Jr. claimed that Bolsonaro suggested using legal processes to annul the election results, including declaring a state of siege.
The Spin
Left narrative
Even if Bolsonaro's coup failed, accountability for what happened in Brazil isn't only a matter of justice but is crucial for the future of the country's democracy. The current investigation has revealed a coordinated, multi-pronged attempt by Bolsonaro and his accomplices to undermine the election's result. The political influence of Brazil's military can't be underestimated, and this is a concern that politicians must confront in the future.
Right narrative
You don't have to be a Bolsonaro supporter to see that Lula is using the judicial system to punish his predecessor. Lula is a leftist career politician who was convicted on corruption charges before they were stunningly reversed by activist judges. Right-leaning figures across the nation are being censored, and checks and balances are being curtailed as the legal system is increasingly used as a weapon against opponents. Leftist institutions are being weaponized against Bolsonaro.
Nerd narrative
There's a 12% chance that Brazil will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.