Brazil: Bolsonaro's Eldest Son to Run for President Next Year

Will Flávio Bolsonaro unite the right and defeat Lula, or will a Bolsonaro candidate only benefit Lula?
Brazil: Bolsonaro's Eldest Son to Run for President Next Year
Above: Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, on Nov. 25, 2025. Image credit: Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

This announcement may be intended as a trial balloon or even to shield Flávio Bolsonaro from investigations. If he eventually comes to run as the far-right candidate, Lula's reelection will be an accomplished fact as the Bolsonaro surname carries massive rejection among voters — he defeated the father in 2022 and will beat the son in 2026.

Right narrative

Flávio Bolsonaro is the organic choice of the Brazilian people and guarantees right-wing unity heading into the 2026 presidential election. As the most moderate and politically skilled of Bolsonaro's sons and with strong congressional relationships, he carries forward the legacy while offering a credible challenge to Lula's failing government.

Metaculus Prediction



Political split

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RIGHT

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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.18.1

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.1