Brazil: New Polls Show Narrow Lead for Lula in Likely Runoff
The Spin
Left narrative
The numbers don't lie — despite all the noise around Curi's rise, Lula remains firmly in command of this race with his base holding steady while the opposition is fracturing. The right can shuffle its deck chairs all it wants; Lula is still the one standing at the front of the boat.
Right narrative
Flávio Bolsonaro is surging, and the momentum is undeniable. These latest polls confirm he is now technically tied with Lula in the second round, with 33% support in the first-round scenario — a race that is tightening by the day. This is the campaign of change Brazil has been demanding.
Narrative C
Augusto Cury is the candidate Brazil has been waiting for: untainted, unpolarizing and unstoppable. He's the only candidate capable of uniting an exhausted country. With pollsters now set to finally test him against Lula head-to-head, the numbers are about to prove what his supporters already know: Cury can win.
Metaculus Prediction
© 2026 Improve the News Foundation.
All rights reserved.
Version 7.13.0