Climate change

NOAA: El Niño Has 82% Chance of Emerging by Mid-2026

Is a catastrophic El Niño in 2026 an urgent certainty or an overhyped forecast we've seen fizzle before?

Published MAY 15

NOAA: El Niño Has 82% Chance of Emerging by Mid-2026

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Image credit: Marco M.M. via X

The Facts

The U.S. National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center released an updated forecast on Thursday, giving El Niño an 82% chance of emerging between May and July 2026, and a 96% chance of persisting through December 2026 to February 2027.
NOAA
CNN
According to forecasters, there is roughly a 35% probability that this year's El Niño will be classified as "very strong," a 25% chance it will be "strong," about a 20% chance it will be "moderate," and only a small probability that it will be weak or fail to form.
Reuters
The Hill
Fox 59
A "super El Niño" occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise at least 2°C above average. Only four such events have been recorded since 1950, with the most recent taking place between 2015 and 2016.
News Nation Now
USA Today
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "stronger El Niño events do not ensure strong impacts; they can only make certain impacts more likely." Spring forecasts of El Niño have historically been unreliable, though forecasters report higher-than-normal confidence this year.
Scientific American
BBC News
FOX 5 DC on Youtube
KTLA
El Niño typically brings warm, dry winter weather to the northern U.S. and wetter, cooler conditions to southern states. A strong event also tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing tropical storm activity in the central and eastern Pacific.
News Nation Now
CNN
Forecasters warn that a strong El Niño could reduce rainfall across Southeast Asia and Australia, potentially lowering palm oil and wheat production. Indonesia's crude palm oil output may drop by up to 2 million metric tons compared to 2025.
Reuters
BBC News
Sergio Cabrales on X

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The Spin

Climate-skeptic narrative

A super El Niño in 2026 is far from guaranteed — the ocean-atmosphere feedback loop hasn't locked in, and wind patterns as of mid-May weren't cooperating. History shows that 2014 and 2017 had similarly alarming early signals that fizzled out. Preparing for risk makes sense, but treating worst-case model projections as certainty is a mistake the science itself warns against.

Nature

The Conversation

Climate-concerned narrative

The subsurface heat building in the equatorial Pacific is extraordinary, and NOAA puts a 96% chance of El Niño persisting through winter 2026-27. A marine heat wave compounding that warming could push ocean temperatures a staggering 3°C above average — driving floods, droughts and record global temperatures. The conditions are stacking up in ways that demand urgent attention.

NOAA

Peter D Carter on X

Optimist narrative

El Niño remains a powerful climate force, yet human innovation continues to reduce its risks through advanced forecasting, climate-resilient agriculture, stronger infrastructure and smarter disaster planning. Scientists and communities are adapting faster than ever before, proving that while El Niño is real, its impacts can be managed through technology, cooperation and steady human progress toward resilience and sustainability.