23 February 2023

Daily Newsletter

Report: Drought in Horn of Africa Worse Than 2011 Famine

Facts

  • On Wednesday, [the Kenya-based regional] Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Center said the Horn of Africa is experiencing a historic drought, with rainfall in the next three months expected to be below normal for the entire region. The center said the lack of rain could have wide-ranging impacts on populations throughout Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya.
  • The center reported that more than 11M livestock have already died across East Africa due to drought conditions. Many farmers and pastoralists have watched crops perish, and water sources run dry.
  • The drought crisis in the Horn of Africa is particularly serious because of the war in Ukraine. Traditional European donors are now diverting funding from the region and the head of the center has urged governments and partners to act "before it's too late."
  • The researchers at the center warn that parts of eastern Africa could be facing a sixth consecutive failed rainy season. Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, and parts of Uganda, had been hit hardest by drought, with half their population at risk of starvation; parts of Burundi, eastern Tanzania, Rwanda, and western South Sudan are now worsening.
  • The UN says that more than 1M people have been displaced in Somalia alone, and the drought has lasted almost three years. The food security working group has found that close to 23M people are thought to be at risk of food insecurity and mass migration in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The UN and other non-governmental organizations have warned that catastrophic hunger levels were imminent in the Horn of Africa for over a year. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated an already severe problem, which now is a global problem. According to the World Food Programme, 349M people across 79 countries face acute food insecurity — up from 287M before the conflict in Ukraine. More than 900K people worldwide are fighting to survive famine-like conditions; these numbers are expected to increase dramatically unless aid efforts ramp up quickly. The international community must rise to this urgent challenge.

Establishment-critical narrative

Western powers argue that Russia and Putin are to blame for the world famine crisis. In reality, supply chains have been disrupted by Western sanctions against Russia, which include restrictions on the movement of goods. When the US and Europe try to punish Russia for the war in Ukraine, they do so without considering the effects of such policies on the people in Africa. The main reason for the famine crisis is not a lack of food but Western disruptions of global markets and logistics.

Nerd narrative

There's a 35% chance that more than 400M fatalities will occur if there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Day 365: Tensions Rise Over Breakaway Region of Transnistria

Facts

  • Amid the allegations, however, a new pro-EU government of Moldova was this week sworn in. New Prime Minister Dorin Recean called for the demilitarization of Transnistria and the withdrawal of Russian troops — sparking criticism from Moscow. Meanwhile, Moldova began to rescind agreements with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) — an alliance of ex-Soviet states — while Russian Pres. Putin also canceled a 2012 decree that pledged to respect the sovereignty of Moldova.
  • During the collapse of the Soviet Union, the mainly Russian-speaking region proclaimed independence from Moldova in 1990 and fought a war until a ceasefire was signed 1992. However, Transnistria's status as a state hasn't been internationally recognized; an estimated 1.5K Russian troops are believed to be currently stationed there.
  • Elsewhere, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution on Thursday demanding that Russia withdraw all its troops from Ukraine — the third of its kind since the start of the war. The move is largely symbolic, however, as only Security Council resolutions are binding.
  • Meanwhile, after Putin said Russia would suspend its participation in the New START nuclear treaty earlier this week, on Thursday he announced Russia would deploy its Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile as part of its nuclear arsenal later this year. "A modern, efficient army and navy are a guarantee of the country’s security and sovereignty, a guarantee of its stable development and its future," he said.
  • On the eve of the one-year anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions are rising over the breakaway region of Transnistria — a narrow strip of land between the Dniester river in Moldova and the Ukrainian border — sparking fears that a third country could become directly embroiled in the war.
  • On Thursday, Russia's defense ministry claimed that Ukraine is preparing an "armed false-flag operation" in Transnistria as a pretext for an invasion of the region. Moldovan authorities issued a statement rejecting the claim. Meanwhile, Moldovan Pres. Maia Sandu made separate allegations last week that Russia was preparing a coup in the country — neither of the claims could be independently confirmed.

Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukrainian forces are planning a "false-flag operation" in Transnistria to justify launching an invasion of the region. Russia's defense ministry is closely monitoring the situation and will respond accordingly to any changes.

Anti-Russia narrative

Russia's claims about a "false-flag operation" in Transnistria are likely a cover for its potential plans to invade Moldova. Not only would this flagrantly violate the sovereignty of another country, but it could also open up a western front in its war with Ukraine.

Nerd narrative

There's a 40% chance that Moldova will control Transnistria before 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Turkey Fines Broadcasters for Earthquake Criticism

Facts

  • All three channels fined by the Television Supreme Council — the government telecommunications regulator — are known for being critical of the Erdoğan administration; Halk TV is linked to the CHP party, which is Turkey’s main opposition.
  • Both local and international media organizations, as well as journalists' unions, have expressed outrage over the fines, with the Committee to Protect Journalists calling on Turkish authorities to revoke the penalties and safeguard media freedom in the country.
  • In the latest Reporters Without Borders press freedom index, released in 2022, Turkey ranked 149th out of 180 countries.
  • Three Turkish TV stations — Halk TV, Tele 1, and FOX — were fined on Wednesday for reporting on alleged shortcomings in the government’s response to the earthquake that killed more than 42K earlier this month.
  • Two of the channels, Halk TV and Tele 1, were fined 5% of their January revenues. Authorities also ordered them to suspend one of their daily programs for five days; Halk TV and FOX TV were ordered to pay 3% against their January revenue for separate infractions.

Spin

Narrative A

These sanctions against the media outlets follow a direct warning to journalists and broadcasters by the regulating agency that they had a legal obligation not to share information that harms the search and rescue efforts in the earthquake zone and causes panic and disinformation. Turkey’s Radio and Television Supreme Council simply cannot look the other way when organizations make manipulative broadcasts with malicious intent — this is in line with the clear language of the earthquake disaster declaration.

Narrative B

The three TV stations were fined for criticizing President Erdoğan and his ruling Justice and Development Party for poor performance in coordinating search and rescue efforts following the earthquake. The authorities allegedly failed to mobilize enough people, and the coordination among the teams functioned poorly. This inefficient performance contributed to earthquake victims tragically freezing to death underneath the rubble. Punishing media for reporting and informing the public — especially in times of a major catastrophe — is a crime and should not happen in a democracy.

Nerd narrative

There is a 59% chance that Erdoğan will abdicate the presidency if he loses the 2023 presidential election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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WHO: One Woman Dies Every Two Minutes During Pregnancy or Childbirth

Facts

  • According to a World Health Organization report released on Thursday, one woman worldwide dies every two minutes during pregnancy or childbirth — mostly from treatable conditions.
  • However, maternal deaths continue to be largely concentrated in the world’s most impoverished regions, and the countries most impacted by conflict — about 70% of all maternal deaths occurred in sub-Saharan Africa.
  • Meanwhile, in the US, maternal mortality rates have increased by 75% over the past 20 years — from roughly 12 maternal deaths per 100K live births in 2000 to 21 maternal deaths per 100K live births.
  • The report noted that the leading causes of maternal deaths included severe bleeding, high blood pressure, pregnancy-related infections, and complications from unsafe abortions.
  • The report — which tracked maternal deaths nationally, regionally, and globally from 2000 to 2020 — found that there were an estimated 800 deaths every day in 2020.
  • Though the overall maternal mortality rate dropped by 34.3% over the two decades monitored — going from 339 maternal deaths per 100K live births in 2000 to 223 maternal deaths in 2020 — after 2015, the rates either increased or remained the same in nearly all regions of the world.

Spin

Narrative A

Leaders of the global public health community must recognize that reproductive rights are human rights and that every government must ensure access to high-quality critical health services before, during, and after childbirth. It's time to step up funding, training, and improving supply chains to reduce the maternal mortality rate worldwide.

Narrative B

While it's critical that women have control over their reproductive health, issues related to income inequality, family planning, education, race, and ethnicity marginalize pregnant women more than the lack of health care services or preventable conditions in pregnancy. Solving the global crisis requires a new look at the entire holistic environment that impacts women — not only providing access to health care.

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Report: US Extremist Mass Killings Spiked Over Last Decade

Facts

  • According to a new report published by the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) on Thursday, the number of mass killings linked to extremism in the US over the past decade was three times higher than in any other decade since the 1970s.
  • Between 2010 and 2020, there were 21 extremism-linked mass killings, compared to between two and seven in each of the previous decades from the 1970s onwards. The number of deaths also jumped to record highs, reaching 164 — higher than any other decade except the 1990s, during which the Oklahoma City bombing killed 168.
  • Furthermore, 93% of killings in 2022 were reportedly committed with firearms, and no police were killed by extremists that year for the first time since 2011.
  • It also claims that right-wing extremism was behind every ideology-based mass killing in 2022, reporting that 60% of the deaths stemming from extremist mass killings that year came from the shooting in a supermarket in Buffalo, NY, that targeted Black people and the mass shooting at an LGBTQ+ nightclub in Colorado.
  • The ADL's Center on Extremism (COE), which tracks and compiles various forms of extremism into an annual report, added that the trend continued with five mass killings in 2021 and 2022 alone, as many as there were in the entire first decade of the century.
  • The report cited several factors driving this increase, including shootings inspired by the rise of the Islamic State group, several targeting police officers in response to cops shooting civilians, and others linked to the promotion of violence by white supremacists.

Spin

Left narrative

Left-wing extremists do exist and commit violence, but unlike those on the right, they typically target property rather than people. Right-wing extremism is the most dangerous movement facing the US due to how broad it is. From individual hate crimes to mass shootings targeting people of color and the LGTBQ+ community, the white, straight, and male supremacy ideologies have garnered tremendous support, leading to this dangerously high spike in violence and death.

Right narrative

The so-called studies published by the ADL in recent years have fraudulently rearranged real statistics to promote blatant lies and brainwash the American people into thinking conservatives are the evilest among us. It does this by secretly combining groups such as Islamic radicals with white supremacists — who don't embody conservative values — while conveniently ignoring the vast majority of shooting deaths committed by non-ideological gangs. The US does face a lot of violence, but it has little to do with either left-wing or right-wing extremism.

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Study: Robots May Do 39% of Domestic Chores by 2033

Facts

  • Although recent AI advancements in products like OpenAI's ChatGPT bot have caused interest in robots to soar, predictions that AI would take off have been public for many years. In the mid-2000s, Honda and Toyota were locked in a race to produce robots to perform domestic work and drive vehicles.
  • Data from the survey showed that male experts in the UK showed more optimism than their female counterparts about robots completing domestic tasks.
  • Researchers from the University of Oxford and Japan's Ochanomizu University said robots for domestic chores, like vacuum cleaners, "have become the most widely produced and sold robots in the world." They expressed interest in understanding how the robots might impact the domestic work industry, saying "if robots will take our jobs, will they at least also take out the trash for us?"
  • Researchers surveyed 65 artificial intelligence (AI) experts across the UK and Japan. The responses showed that grocery shopping is the chore most likely to be automated while child care is the least likely.
  • Within a decade, 39% of household chores could be completed by robots, according to research published in the journal PLOS ONE on Wednesday.

Spin

Narrative A

Humans who yearn for more leisure time will benefit from these robotic technologies, which will be able to do housework, and eventually become so personalized they’ll require little human direction. Interactive toys will also enhance childhood education. Assuming ways could be devised to avoid invasions of privacy and cybersecurity breaches, consumer robots will make people’s lives much better.

Narrative B

Introducing robots into everyday life is a slippery slope, and could change humanity forever. Humans will grow dependent on robots, reduce interactions with other humans, and it will be difficult to return to life before robots. We could be headed to a hybrid society, where we live and work with robots in an uneven dependency.

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Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner Subpoenaed by Special Counsel

Facts

  • Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Smith in November to lead two investigations regarding Trump: one involving his handling of classified documents after leaving office and the other into his alleged efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
  • In addition to being close family members of the former president, Ivanka and Kushner also served in the Trump admin. as trusted advisors.
  • Ivanka and Kushner are the latest Trump allies subpoenaed by Smith. He also reportedly subpoenaed former VP Mike Pence — who said he won't testify — and Trump’s former chief of staff Mark Meadows.
  • Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, the daughter and son-in-law of former Pres. Donald Trump, have reportedly been subpoenaed by special counsel Jack Smith as part of his investigation into the Jan. 6 riots and the days leading up to that day.
  • Ivanka was reportedly in the Oval Office on Jan. 6 and present during her father’s phone call with Pence in which he allegedly urged the VP not to certify the Electoral College results. She and her husband have already testified before the Jan. 6 House committee via videotaped interviews.
  • This comes as grand juries in Washington have been hearing testimony from former Trump admin. officials regarding both probes into the former president.

Spin

Pro-Trump narrative

Smith is one of the worst partisan hacks the Washington establishment has to offer. For over a decade, he abused the justice department to target conservatives, starting with his role in the Obama-era IRS scandal in which he fabricated criminal prosecutions against conservative nonprofits. As the head of this sham investigation into Trump, he will now continue his pursuit of political vengeance.

Democratic narrative

Both Ivanka and Kushner are key witnesses in the probe, and Smith is merely doing his due diligence by rightly prioritizing justice over the perception of his investigation. These latest subpoenas show he's willing to challenge power in the pursuit of truth, especially when it comes to Donald Trump’s attempted coup.

Nerd narrative

There's a 53% chance that Donald Trump will get indicted on criminal charges in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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App Designed to Protect Children Online Gets £1.8M EU Funding

Facts

  • At least 180 pilot-stage users from Belgium, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, and the UK will be recruited via organizations working with individuals who recognize they are vulnerable to child abuse images to test it over an 11-month timeframe.
  • In the UK alone, offenses involving possession and sharing of indecent images of children have reportedly peaked at nearly 31K in the year 2021-2022, according to the [UK charity] NSPCC [National Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children].
  • Researchers from the project will design the app based on studies on why offenders begin viewing such images and what could help them stop. It is hoped that this will help restrain the demand for this content.
  • The development of a new app intended to work in real-time — using artificial intelligence to identify potential child sexual abuse material online and stop users from seeing it — has received £1.8M ($2.16M) of funding from the EU.
  • The European Commission-funded Project Protech, which will launch in March to create the app named "Salus," is led by a university hospital in Berlin, with the support of the UK tech company SafeToNet.
  • The safety app will reportedly monitor both network traffic and images viewed on the user's screen — running silently and requiring interaction only if sexual images of children are detected and blocked.

Spin

Narrative A

Put together with criminal investigations and the removal of the imagery, the Salus app is likely to become a key tool for the long-term prevention of child sexual abuse content. It will provide a technical barrier for those willing to avoid starting or continuing consumption. In addition, this safety tech will decrease the workload of law enforcement pursuing criminals.

Narrative B

The EU is heading down a dangerous path as its efforts to quell child sexual abuse material may create a mass surveillance regime across the bloc. While this voluntarily-deployed app is well-intentioned, it would be prone to error as available technology is nowhere near enough to be reliable. Instead of focusing on the online world, the EU should be pushing for more accountability, transparency, and strong independent organizations that rebalance power to prevent abuse and provide justice for victims.

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Report: US to Send More Troops to Taiwan

Facts

  • A US official confirmed Thursday that the nation is preparing to send 100-200 troops to Taiwan to expand an existing training program that has used members of the National Guard, Special Operations Units, and Marines.
  • According to officials, the increased troop numbers in Taiwan were planned before the US detected and shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon earlier this month. However, both that incident and the troop deployments are expected to further ratchet up tensions between Beijing and Washington.
  • As American soldiers head to Taiwan, the island nation will also reportedly be sending its troops to the Michigan National Guard training facility, known as Camp Grayling, to be included in annual exercises with multiple other countries.
  • The deployed troops, increasing from 30 who were reportedly stationed in Taiwan a year ago, are expected to train the Taiwanese military to defend itself using both US weapons systems and combat tactics.
  • This comes amid growing tensions with Beijing, which maintains that Taiwan is Chinese territory. While Washington diplomatically acknowledges China's position, it remains strategically ambiguous on whether it would defend the island in the case of an invasion.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The time to increase support for Taiwan was yesterday. China's increasingly aggressive posturing and lack of communication with US military officials are concerning, and Washington — seeking to maintain peace in the Taiwan strait — is right to stand up to Beijing's hegemony.

Establishment-critical narrative

Every economic, political, and military move the US makes in the Asia-Pacific region is calculated toward the goal of dominating China and the world. The Pentagon doesn't deploy troops and establish military bases to "defend democracy" but rather to scare China into submission. By antagonizing the superpower of the East, the US is asking to go to war over nothing but greed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 5% chance that China will recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Google Blocking News Content From Some Canadian Users

Facts

  • Australia and the Big Tech firms faced off over similar legislation, which took effect in March 2021. After a brief shutdown of Facebook news content in that country, the companies made deals with the publishers, and the bill proved to work as intended, according to a government report.
  • During the test, some Canadians will be limited in how much domestic and international news they'll be able to view.
  • Google is looking for amendments to the bill, which is under consideration by the Senate. The company also said the test, which will run for about five weeks, is one of “thousands” of tests it runs each year.
  • On Wednesday, Google said it's blocking approximately 4% of its Canadian users from viewing news content as a test of their response to the legislation "Bill C-18," also known as the Online News Act.
  • The bill was introduced by Prime Minister Trudeau’s Liberal government in April, and requires Google — and other platforms, including Facebook — to negotiate with news publishers to pay for their content.
  • The Canadian legislation could generate $242M a year for media outlets, Canada’s parliamentary budget watchdog has estimated.

Spin

Narrative A

It’s disappointing that Google doesn't appear to care about the harm it causes to Canadian media outlets, and is now stooping to bullying tactics that are disrespectful to Canadian users. Instead of running on greed, Google, and all the Big Tech firms, should be open to solutions that will sustainably support a free press and democracy.

Narrative B

This test isn’t an attempt to bully the Canadian government or users, but hopefully, it will catch legislators’ attention. Bill C-18 is overbearing and the Canadian Parliament should consider amending how it defines which news outlets fall into the group that gets to negotiate with social media platforms. Certainly, Big Tech companies can’t be expected to establish deals with tiny outlets that don’t adhere to journalistic standards.

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