24 February 2023

Daily Newsletter

Australia Plans to Limit Early Access to Retirement Funds, Cut Tax Breaks

Facts

  • On Thursday, Australia's center-left Labor Party government announced plans to change superannuation rules, reportedly including restricting early access to funds and limiting tax breaks for high-earners. The changes come as pressure continues to mount on the federal budget.
  • Prime Minister Anthony Albanese insisted that no major changes are being considered to the way the $3.3T retirement savings system is managed beyond defining its objective in law.
  • Speaking in Adelaide with South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskas, the PM claimed that the then-ruling Coalition made four significant changes to superannuation in 2016, allegedly undermining the system "at every single opportunity."
  • This long-term investment plan — often shortened to "super" — is based on money being put aside by the employer which can be withdrawn upon the employee retiring or turning 65 years old. Early access is taxed at 45%, except in extraordinary circumstances.
  • Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned that reform is needed after former PM Scott Morrison allowed early withdraws up to AU$10K that cost funds nearly AU$36B, as well as due to tax concessions to before-tax contributions, which are expected to cost the government AU$52.6B in 2022-23.
  • Concerns that the tax concessions could aggravate inequality in Australia prompted assistant treasurer Stephen Jones to state in January that, after legislating an objective for super, the government planned to review it.

Spin

Left narrative

Though obvious that the objective of superannuation should be to provide retirement incomes for older Australians, the Coalition has sought to transform it into a solution to everything from housing affordability to healthcare problems, while the wealthy use the system to evade taxes. The reforms proposed by the Albanese government are a decent starting point from which to begin rectifying the superannuation.

Right narrative

It is disgraceful that Labor is characterizing the decision to allow people to access their funds during the pandemic merely as a cost to the taxpayer when they are actually motivated by a problematic plunge in liquidity for the current administration. The party's ultimate goal is crystal clear to restrict Australians from using their own money so that the Albanese Cabinet can plunder it to fund spending without the need to drastically alter the national budget.

Nerd narrative

There's a 43% chance that the Coalition will win the next Australian federal election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US Govt Agency: Ohio Train Derailment "100% Preventable"

Facts

  • On Thursday, the US National Transportation Safety Board issued its preliminary report on the train derailment that occurred outside East Palestine, Ohio. Authorities did not identify an exact cause of the derailment, however, they were able to identify an overheated wheel bearing on the locomotive.
  • On Feb. 3, 38 cars of a train transporting toxic chemicals derailed. As a result of the derailment, many cars caught fire and were eventually contained two days later; officials remained concerned that the cars carrying the toxic chemicals were still vulnerable to an explosion.
  • In a press conference announcing the report release, Board Chairwoman Jennifer Homendy said, "it was a combination of the hot axle and the plastic pellets which started the initial fire." The issue was identified in a surveillance video from a nearby residence showing "what appeared to be a wheel bearing in the final stage of overheat failure moments before the derailment."
  • Homendy also said, "I can tell you this much: This was 100% preventable." She went on to say that the derailment should thus not be considered an accident due to its preventable nature.
  • The report was released one day following the Dept. of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg's visit to East Palestine, in which his response was criticized. His visit also followed a visit by former President Trump.
  • A final report is expected to be released within the next 12 to 18 months. Buttigieg suggested Norfolk Southern and Trump-era deregulation policies are primary factors in the derailment.

Spin

Narrative A

US government agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency have stepped up to ensure that the residents of East Palestine and the affected area are treated fairly and that Norfolk Southern is held accountable. Norfolk Southern has been given a legally-binding order to pay for the cleanup and restoration. The company will also be held accountable for any health issues they've caused. Strong government action is holding Norfolk Southern accountable.

Narrative B

It's clear that officials and the media are not being transparent about how far this catastrophe reaches. Chemical spills this large have long-standing implications on life in the impacted area. Residents are experiencing headaches, rashes, nausea, and other discomforts and are feeling a disconnect between what they are feeling and what they are being told. Residents are demanding accountability and transparency as they navigate this devastating disaster and try to make health and safety decisions — right now, there is a major disconnect.

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Nigeria: Opposition Senate Candidate Killed Days Before Elections

Facts

  • Oyibo Chukwu, a senatorial candidate from Nigeria's opposition Labor Party in southeastern Enugu State, was killed on Wednesday night by unknown gunmen, just hours after presidential candidates pledged a peaceful electoral process ahead of Saturday's vote.
  • Local police confirmed on Thursday that the politician was shot and burned in his campaign vehicle along with an unnamed personal aide. While investigations are still underway, police suspect attackers belong to banned Biafran separatist groups.
  • This incident comes as vehicles from two other political parties – including the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) – were also targeted in simultaneous incidents at separate locations, resulting in the killing of the driver of a People's Democratic Party (PDP) campaign minibus.
  • The Nigerian Bar Association on Thursday stated it would give the authorities 48 hours to arrest the sponsors and perpetrators of this crime, vowing to take the "necessary step[s]" under the law to get justice for Chukwu if the deadline expires.
  • The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that the Enugu East senatorial district election is likely to be postponed by two weeks over the passing of the Labor Party candidate if the party notifies the commission.
  • More than 93M Nigerian voters will be able to cast a vote on Saturday to elect a new president, vice president, members of the House of Representatives, and senators in the first election that will not feature an incumbent or military ruler in the country's history.

Spin

Narrative A

This horrific assassination comes at a time when Chukwu was about to oust the incumbent senator for Enugu East, Chimaroke Nnamani, as his campaign was causing worries among local political moguls. Given the horrifying record of violence related to the now APC supporter Nnamani, it's no coincidence that the political climate in the state has reached a new low this week.

Narrative B

Although an investigation is still underway, the outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra group's fingerprints are all over these deadly simultaneous attacks against candidates from Nigeria's main political parties. This is an obvious attempt to spread terror among the nation and disrupt the electoral process ahead of Saturday's vote.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least 14 at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from Sept. 17, 2021 to Sept. 17, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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North Korea Claims it Fired Long-Range Cruise Missiles

Facts

  • North Korea claimed on Friday to have test-fired four long-range Hwasal-2 strategic cruise missiles off the east coast of the Korean Peninsula following simulated military exercises between the US and South Korea in Washington, DC.
  • According to its state-run Korean Central News Agency, the launches served to underscore Pyongyang's war readiness and "nuclear counterattack capability" against what it considers hostile forces.
  • As of Friday, however, there was no clear confirmation of the reported exercise from either Tokyo or Seoul. With a claimed range of 2,000 km (1,200 miles) and a flight duration of about 170 minutes, the allegedly tested missiles would put all of South Korea and Japan within striking distance.
  • The alleged missile test came after the US, Japan, and South Korea conducted their first trilateral ballistic missile defense exercise since October 2022 on Wednesday. Earlier, Pyongyang launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Saturday and two short-range ballistic missiles on Monday.
  • Also on Wednesday, the US and South Korean militaries participated in a simulated exercise designed to address a potential nuclear strike by the North — a move that the Biden administration's 2022 Nuclear Posture Review says will lead to "the end of that regime."
  • While Washington also pledged to continue fielding military assets to deter a potential regional nuclear conflict, the US and South Korea are reportedly discussing the possible deployment of a US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to South Korea, to participate in military drills set for next month.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

Despite the US and its allies blaming Pyongyang for increasing tensions, Washington cannot obscure the fact that it bears the main responsibility for declining diplomatic relations, especially as the Biden administration has switched back to a confrontational course following Donald Trump's efforts at de-escalation. Washington is fueling conflict to muscle closer ties with Japan and South Korea in order to expand its regional influence.

Pro-establishment narrative

North Korea's escalating missile tests and repeated threats not to refrain from using tactical nuclear weapons demonstrate the regime's unpredictable hostility, putting the peace and stability of the entire region at risk. Kim Jong Un understands only the language of strength, as the failed negotiations in the Trump era have proven. US extended deterrence is the only way to both protect South Korea and force Kim to the negotiating table.

Nerd narrative

There's a 15% chance that North Korea and South Korea will be recognized as a single sovereign state by 2045, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Southern Calif. Under Blizzard Warning, First Since 1989

Facts

  • Southern California is experiencing its first blizzard warning since 1989, with forecasters predicting that the region's mountains will receive record snowfall of up to 8 ft by Saturday.
  • The blizzard warning — issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) for the Ventura Counties and Los Angeles County mountains — is set to remain in effect until 4 p.m. local time on Saturday.
  • Drivers and travelers in some areas of California have already felt the impact of the storm, which closed the 15 Freeway near the Nevada line overnight on Tuesday, leaving people stranded for hours.
  • The storm system has also brought large snowstorms and freezing temperatures to much of the northern US, and extends along the entire US west coast and into the Canadian province of British Columbia.
  • The NWS also warned of dangerous conditions along the coast — including storm gusts, rip currents, and high surf — that it says is "capable of capsizing boats." Rain in coastal and valley areas is also expected, which will increase driving hazards, with chances for flooding in urban areas.
  • As a result of the storm, 75k Californians were reportedly without power as of early Friday, as over 820k power outages were recorded across the nation — 720k of which were concentrated in Michigan. This comes as parts of the southern US are experiencing record heat, with a 100-degree temperature difference between the Northern Rockies and the South recorded earlier this week.

Spin

Narrative A

The media is often quick to link these types of events to climate change. However, researchers have yet to see evidence of that connection in this case. That California is experiencing a blizzard carrying rain and snow after a three-year-long period of drought is not unusual. These recent storms appear no different from other major storms that have struck the Golden State every decade or more since records began in the 1800s.

Narrative B

While this storm alone may not be evidence of climate change, its combination with extreme heat, drought, and rain across the nation — and globally — certainly makes a compelling argument that this is the result of global warming. This weather whiplash is reaching a boiling point, and leaders cannot stand idly by as people worldwide succumb to its effects.

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Day 366: Zelenskyy Pledges Ukrainian Victory on One-Year Anniversary of Invasion

Facts

  • As Friday marked the one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy commemorated those that had died defending their country, meanwhile pledging this would be the year of Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.
  • "It was a year of pain, sorrow, faith and unity. And this is a year of our invincibility. We know that this will be the year of our victory!" Zelenskyy wrote in an early morning message on Telegram. He also spoke at a commemorative event in Kyiv, attended by defense minister Oleksii Reznikov and commander-in-chief of Ukraine's armed forces Valery Zaluzhnyi, as well as other officials.
  • The milestone drew widespread messages of support from Western leaders, as well as promises of further military aid. US Sec. of Defense Lloyd Austin unveiled a new $2B arms package that included several types of drones, ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), and various artillery rounds and munitions. The US also unveiled further sanctions against Russia on Friday.
  • Similarly, Britain outlined a further package of sanctions against Russia on the anniversary of the invasion. The country's defense minister, Ben Wallace, also told Times Radio that if NATO countries can provide Ukraine with their Soviet-era fighter jets, Britain would be willing to replenish their stocks with modern Typhoon jets.
  • Elsewhere, China has called for a ceasefire and the opening of peace talks, publishing a 12-point proposal to end the fighting on its foreign ministry website on Friday. Prior to seeing the details, Zelenskyy said the fact China was talking about peace was a positive step. However, US State Dept. spokesman Ned Price stated: "We would like to see nothing more than a just and durable peace... but we are skeptical that reports of a proposal like this will be a constructive path forward."
  • On the ground, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, claimed that his forces have taken control of Berkhivka, a village northwest of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region. Ukrainian officials said two civilians were killed and seven more injured in Russian attacks on Donetsk over the past day. Five civilians were also injured in the Kharkiv region, while Dnipropetrovsk was attacked without reports of civilian casualties at this stage.

Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

One year into Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine, allowing Moscow to achieve its goals and subvert the norms of international law and territorial sovereignty would be a moral travesty. The West must ensure Ukraine is well armed so that it can drive Russia out and prevent it from launching further invasions.

Establishment-critical narrative

Since the war began, Western countries have poured fuel to the fire by relentlessly providing weapons to Ukraine — motivated by a desire to degrade Russia on the world stage, the West has dragged out the conflict rather than sought mediation. Ukrainians have paid the price for this with the destruction of their homeland and energy infrastructure, as well as through the deaths of thousands of soldiers. It's time to seek a political settlement.

Nerd narrative

There's a 24% chance that there will be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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IMF Unveils Crypto Plan, Advises Against Legal Tender Status

Facts

  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) rolled out a nine-point action plan Thursday concerning how countries should deal with crypto assets, stressing that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin shouldn't be given legal tender status.
  • The global bank said that its executive board discussed a paper, titled Elements Of Effective Policies For Crypto Assets, which it said provided "guidance to IMF member countries on key elements of an appropriate policy response to crypto assets."
  • While citing several recent crypto exchanges' collapses as reasoning for the new plan, the lender recommended that countries "safeguard monetary sovereignty and stability by strengthening monetary policy frameworks," adding that doing nothing was now "untenable."
  • The bank had previously criticized El Salvador in late 2021 when the Central American country became the first to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender, a move since imitated by the Central African Republic.
  • Coming as the G20 nations meet in India, the plan also encourages countries to collaborate to improve supervision and enforce regulations, be mindful of excessive capital flows, assume unambiguous tax crypto laws, and develop and implement oversight requirements for all crypto market actors.

Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

As is the case with many other technological advancements, this move is simply an attempt by an established global institution to hold onto the little power it still has. As cryptocurrency becomes legitimized by more and more people, the average worker and saver are becoming less reliant on the current system of debt slavery — that's the real reason the IMF recommends against providing legal tender status.

Pro-establishment narrative

As the crypto market continues to prove itself dangerously volatile, governments should be focused not on banning but regulating these digital transactions so that they don't overtake traditional, more stable currencies, which is exactly what the IMF's latest plan seeks to do. As some national economies have already been negatively impacted by the likes of Bitcoin and others, it's time for authorities to promote trust in their own fiat currencies so that citizens don't get hurt by the unregulated global crypto market.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that at least five countries will recognize Bitcoin as legal tender by Jan 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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US Labor Strikes Increased Almost 50% Between 2021 and 2022

Facts

  • According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday, nearly 50% more US workers were involved in strikes in 2022 than in the previous year — 120.6K up from 80.7K in 2021.
  • 2022 saw 26 individual work stoppages, a rise from 17 in 2021 and 10 held in 2020. A rise in the number of striking workers comes amid the tightest labor market since 1969, with last year recording a four-fold increase in the 27K people who stopped working during the lockdown of 2020.
  • Most strikes came from the education and healthcare sectors, with the US Dept. of Labor saying in a statement that they accounted for 106.3K people. Some of the largest stoppages took place at the University of California, such as in November when 48K workers went on strike.
  • It has been suggested that the Bureau's data might not show an accurate picture of the scale of stoppages in the US, as it has not recorded strikes involving fewer than a thousand workers since the 1980s due to budget cuts. A Cornell University study puts the number of strikes seen last year at 424 — 52% higher than the 279 the year before.
  • The news appears to be the latest indicator of a changing employment landscape. Following the COVID pandemic, there have been increasing moves toward unionization, especially in the service sector. Employees aligned with the "Fight for $15" campaign — an initiative to raise the minimum wage — along with Starbucks baristas organized over 100 strikes last year.
  • Cornell's database cited higher pay, improved healthcare provisions, health and safety problems, and staffing as major demands among those striking.

Spin

Narrative A

Approval ratings of labor unions are at their highest among Americans for almost six decades. As stoppages become more common — and it becomes clearer that engaging in collective activity gains workers more leverage to improve their conditions and pay — labor organization will only spread and power will become more equitably distributed between employers and employees.

Narrative B

While there has been a rise in stoppages following the pandemic, the levels seen today are nowhere near the scale of the 1960s and '70s. The strikes may also be short-lived, as SCOTUS appears poised to open the door for businesses to sue workers over any strike that causes economic damage to the employer in Glacier Northwest v. Teamsters. The significance of this trend should not be overstated just yet.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 12% of American workers will be represented by a labor union in 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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Russia Launches Rescue Ship to International Space Station

Facts

  • Russia's unmanned "rescue" spacecraft, which launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on Thursday, has arrived in orbit on its mission to return one American and two Russian astronauts from the International Space Station. They were originally intended to ride Soyuz MS-22 back to Earth, however, it was determined to be "not viable" due to a radiator leak.
  • Though the spacecraft will dock at the space station on Sunday, Russian cosmonauts Dmitry Petelin and Sergei Prokopyev, and NASA astronaut Frank Rubio, won't return to Earth until later this year.
  • This month’s capsule leak, following one in December, was suspected of being a "micrometeorite" that pierced an external radiator, draining its coolant. Russia delayed launching its replacement for Soyuz to check for manufacturing defects, but after finding none it sent it into orbit carrying bundles of supplies.
  • Officials determined it would be too dangerous to bring the astronauts back to Earth as originally planned. Without any coolant, the cabin temperature would rise — potentially endangering equipment and the crew.
  • Space station-bound capsules usually stay in orbit around the station until its time to bring astronauts back, but this time, the damaged capsule will return to Earth empty so that engineers can examine it — extending the crew's trip to roughly a whole year in space.
  • There are currently four other crew members aboard the space station after arriving on a SpaceX Dragon capsule last October as part of the Crew-5 mission. A Crew-6 mission will launch from Florida next Friday to join them and, after a few days of overlap, Crew-5 will return to Earth.

Spin

Narrative A

Joint US-Russia space projects have been, and continue to be, isolated from the conflicts back on Earth. Though there has been some talk of Russia leaving the International Space Station, the two global foes have managed to continue working together for the betterment of science and humanity.

Narrative B

It was a short-sighted decision from the US to rely on Russia for the success of its space missions. The recent events in Ukraine underscore the need to immediately break this dependency and for the US to develop its own capabilities.

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Taliban Confirms Conditional Reopening of Pakistan-Afghan Key Trade Route

Facts

  • A Taliban official announced on Friday that the Torkham crossing, a key Afghanistan-Pakistan trade route closed over the last five days, has been conditionally reopened after Kabul and Islamabad agreed that they will only allow their citizens to cross the border.
  • This latest development came a day after the border was thrown into confusion following the circulation of incomplete reports on its reopening on social media. While Afghan officials indeed reopened their side of the border, Pakistani authorities insisted they would follow suit after a formal meeting to remove the misunderstandings.
  • The border was first closed on Sunday by the Taliban on claims that Pakistan was preventing sick Afghans from crossing the border. In turn, Pakistan has recently accused Kabul of tacitly supporting the Tahreek-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an armed Islamist group waging an insurgency against the Pakistani military.
  • Since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of US troops in 2021, the TTP has stepped up attacks in Pakistan, especially in recent months.
  • A day after the closing, Taliban and Pakistani troops exchanged fire, with one Pakistani soldier being reported injured in the clash. Pakistani media reported that the Taliban opened fire after Pakistan deported an Afghan who had crossed the border without the required documents.
  • The Torkham border crossing is an essential trade route between Pakistan and Central Asia. Though tensions were rather high earlier in the week, the situation has reportedly calmed since Thursday.

Spin

Narrative A

The worsening of the TTP insurgency in Pakistan is a direct result of the Taliban's takeover of neighboring Afghanistan. Though the Taliban may claim that it can be trusted to secure the border and strengthen the security situation in Afghanistan, it's a direct ally of the TTP and is likely supporting its attacks in Pakistan. The TTP, which has long taken refuge in Afghanistan, has benefited from the Taliban's return to Kabul, as it can now freely launch terror attacks into Pakistan.

Narrative B

Restraint is necessary on both sides of the border for an effective and just solution to this dispute. Both Afghanistan and Pakistan benefit from cross-border trade, and closing the border helps no one. The Taliban should take a stronger stand against the TTP, but Pakistan must also allow sick Afghans to cross the border. Neighbors should work together toward mutual benefits.

Nerd narrative

There's an 86% chance that Pakistan will recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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