Pro-establishment narrative

Russia must not be allowed to prevail in Ukraine as it would have a hugely detrimental impact on European security. As such, EU countries are working hard to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs and is considering all options to make sure that it can win this conflict. Pres. Putin must not be allowed to advance his expansionist aims.

Pro-Russia narrative

Aside from the avoidable loss of Ukrainian territory and men throughout this conflict, Ukraine's counteroffensive has failed and Kyiv is now losing the war. More money for arms will simply bring about more death and destruction. Ukraine would never have fought this war against Russia without US and EU weapons. Now that these weapons are running dry, Ukraine must accept the reality that Russia will never cease its defense of the Donbas or Crimea.

Nerd narrative

There's a 32% chance that there will be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

It's good news that New Zealand's government has repealed its intended ban. It is likely that the ban would have disproportionately affected the country's indigenous population. A ban would also provide a major incentive for smugglers to import cigarettes. A better way is to increase efforts to educate cigarette smokers about the possible health benefits of switching to safer alternatives, as well as provide more access to smoking cessation services for the Maori minority.

Narrative B

The evidence is clear — smoking is a massive driver of death in New Zealand and the Western world. The former government of Jacinda Ardern acknowledged this in her proposed legislation to protect future generations. The new coalition administration has repealed the prohibition and will announce other steps to reduce smoking that won't be as effective. It will be hard to come up with something as effective as a ban.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that a country will completely ban civilian tobacco consumption and smoking by September 2034, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

Despite pre-election polls giving the Brothers of Italy an advantage, Todde has proven that Sardinia is shifting in a more liberal direction. Even in the capital Cagliari, where Truzzo was Mayor, the PD-M5S coalition was extremely popular. Todde will not only become the first female leader of the island but also have a historic liberal majority in the regional council.

Right narrative

While liberals will tout this as a grand come-from-behind victory, the truth is that this was only a local race — a very close one for that matter. The Brothers of Italy and its coalition partners remain far ahead of the Democratic Party and M5S at the national level. Meloni picked the wrong candidate this time around, but the Italian people as a whole are still on her side.

Nerd narrative

There's a 1% chance that any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany will leave the EU before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

The government is planning radical countermeasures to boost Japan's birth rate, but it may be too late. Unfortunately, the damage may be irreversible and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio may have a hard time selling new policies to the public because of his lack of popularity. Japan is in demographic trouble.

Narrative B

Japan's demographic crisis is not an isolated event, as China, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, Taiwan, and the US are among the nations about to face the same reality. In this case, Japan may have a leg up because it has had time to devise its plan for dealing with a population decrease since the '70s.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that Japan will experience a record low year of 576K births between now and 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Narrative A

Safety is the lifeblood of any aviation company, so criticism of Boeing is warranted. But what it really needs right now is a solid path to improvement rather than being decimated. Patience and perseverance from regulators, the government, and the public are key because it's important to keep a US-based company like Boeing going.

Narrative B

After the 2018 and 2019 tragedies on its planes, Boeing seems to have prioritized profitability over safety. Comments by CEO Dave Calhoun exposed a rot in the heart of the company, and it's facing a long road to regaining the trust of the government and the public. It can start by being more transparent when it has issues.

Nerd narrative

There's a 50% chance that the next commercial supersonic flight will take off in September 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Republican narrative

This bill is constitutional. It's preposterous to think that the founders of the state of Tennessee intended members who were expelled for bad behavior would be eligible to be reappointed to their seat. Opponents are free to challenge this bill in the courts, but they shouldn't be able to win.

Democratic narrative

This partisan bill is a classic case of GOP government overreach. Republicans are clearly passing this as retaliation against lawmakers who were lawfully returned to their positions after a racially charged vote to expel them and violate their freedom of speech rights. This won't withstand a court challenge.

Nerd narrative

There is a 20% chance that any state will refuse to certify its election results during the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus Prediction community.

Republican narrative

It's no surprise a Pentagon report found there was no one to blame at the Pentagon. But it's appalling that the report details such ineptitude by Democrats in the Biden administration, particularly when it says Austin and his staff didn't pass on information that could quickly change because it was an unprecedented situation. The unprecedented nature of this incident required complete transparency to keep the US safe.

Democratic narrative

Republicans continuing to politicize Austin's health problems and his communication mistakes are smearing an honorable man who's serving the US admirably. Austin has apologized to the president, his co-workers, and the American people — transparency that GOP culture could benefit from — and it's time to look toward the future, not stay mired in the past.

Nerd narrative

There is a 46% chance that Joe Biden will be re-elected President of the United States in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Democratic narrative

As the majority House Republican Conference remains fractured, with far-right MAGA conservatives pushing for cutting federal funding and adding unacceptable partisan policy conditions to spending bills, America is yet again at the brink of an unacceptable shutdown. Similar to the three previous close calls in a year, Democrats will have to avoid it.

Republican narrative

This is the perfect time to add an automatic sequestration mechanism to cut spending in the case of future impasses. If Speaker Johnson can keep out of the way members of his own caucus who believe that threatening government shutdowns in a bipartisan brinkmanship theater is good politics, then House Republicans will be able to achieve their biggest — and easiest — win in years.

Nerd narrative

There's a 33% chance that there will be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Left narrative

These farmers have valid concerns, which is why leaders across the continent have been offering more concessions. However, these genuine economic concerns have been hijacked by far-right politicians, who don't want to accept that climate change will have consequences and farming must transition into a modernized, sustainable industry.

Right narrative

Left-leaning, pro-EU media personalities call farmers "far-right" because they want to associate everyone they disagree with with extremist labels to keep dissent at bay. But European farmers, and other citizens, are against these environmental laws because they know the farming industry and their livelihoods will be destroyed.

Nerd narrative

There's a 20% chance that there will be a year period with an average global temperature >3.6˚C warmer than the 1880 baseline before 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Pro-establishment narrative

Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, Netanyahu is going too far, and he must be willing to follow through on his promises to compromise on a needed truce. The Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence.

Pro-Israel narrative

Israel will always be thankful for the US' steadfast support, but Pres. Joe Biden needs to take a step back from his criticisms of Israel's Prime Minister. Netanyahu is a complicated figure, and Biden has a re-election campaign to worry about, which has created understandable tension between the two. However, Biden must understand that he should be pressuring Hamas terrorists — who have not made a single positive step in finding a compromise — instead of Israel. Israel will pursue its goals, which are incredibly popular with its citizens, regardless of whether it annoys Washington.

Pro-Palestine narrative

As Israel's slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza continues unabated, the Biden administration, increasingly anxious over the upcoming election, has resorted to bad faith tactics to deny its support for Israel's brutal campaign. Regardless of how the administration tries to spin it, Biden has armed Israel, given it diplomatic cover, and refused to call for a permanent cease-fire — all of which incentivizes continued bloodshed. Indeed, Israel's war on Gaza would be unsustainable without US support, and Biden should enact concrete policy to stop the violence.

Nerd narrative

There's a 2% chance that Hamas will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on Jan. 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.