The Facts

  • Pres. Biden has announced the formal launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), which will see the US, together with 12 Asia-Pacific nations, work on common standards in trade, supply chains, clean energy and infrastructure.

  • The countries involved will soon begin talks to define the final framework. Negotiations are set to last 12 to 18 months, which is considered an aggressive timeline.

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

The IPEF is an uninspiring prospect for the pact's members; it lacks clear trade provisions and, thus, clear incentives for developing, trade-reliant nations that have joined the US-led deal. In fact, Biden's resistance to pursuing a major trade deal echoes the protectionist inclinations of Trump and his abrupt exit from the TPP.

Pro-establishment narrative

Had Trump not pulled out of the TPP, Biden wouldn't be forced to make diplomatic compromises with such a diluted framework. In the current, delicate state of hyperpartisanship, Biden knows he would be unable to garner support for a less flexible or more committed trade deal than IPEF, which will successfully keep the US active in the Asia-Pacific region until political attitudes towards traditional trade agreements move forward.

Nerd narrative

There is a 50% chance that at least 2.77% of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Public figures in this story

Establishment split



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