Myanmar: Death Toll from Airstrike on Kachin Hits 80
New reports have put the death toll from a military air raid in Myanmar's northern Kachin state at 80, with around 100 wounded. According to Colonel Naw Bu of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), "two Myanmar military jets attacked” a celebratory event held by the prominent ethnic rebel group on Sunday night.
Rebel ethnic-minority resistance has increased since the military coup last year, with this attack reportedly targeting a concert celebration of the 62nd anniversary of the formation of the Kachin army's fight for autonomy. It appears to be the worst air raid since Myanmar’s military seized power.
Narrative A
This attack is but the latest in a series of indiscriminate bombings against civilian populations and more evidence of the government's complete disregard for human lives and international law. The perpetrators must be held to account.
Narrative B
While the loss of lives is tragic, KIA has been engaged in militant operations against the Myanmar government for decades and carried out countless terrorist attacks. Sunday's operation — inflated by the media — was a necessary step to counter one of the most potent and dangerous rebel groups.
6 Palestinians Killed, Nearly 20 Wounded in West Bank
Israeli raids in the West Bank led to the death of six Palestinians and nearly 20 wounded on Tuesday, as the city of Nablus has become a focal point of clashes between Palestinian fighters and Israeli forces.
Israeli security forces said the Nablus raid targeted a hideout that was being used as a headquarters and explosives manufacturing site by the Lions' Den, a recently formed Palestinian armed faction that is said to have carried out several attacks on Israeli troops in recent months.
Pro-Israel narrative
The so-called "Lions' Den" is just another terrorist organization that Israel must neutralize. Though the media may portray the violence in the West Bank as Israeli aggression, in reality, Israel's raids are a response to the string of terror operations that have plagued Israeli society since earlier this year. Israel must fight terror in the West Bank to prevent spillover into Israel.
Pro-Palestine narrative
Though Israel portrays its actions as defensive, its occupation forces are launching a deadly campaign against Palestinians living in the occupied West Bank. Nablus has been under siege for more than two weeks as settlers backed by the Israeli military attack Palestinian civilians just for existing on their land. Palestinians, including the Lions' Den, have a right to resist this brutal occupation.
Narrative C
The situation in the West Bank is spiraling out of control, and the possibility of a third intifada continues to grow. Palestinians have lost all hope in their largely corrupt and subservient leadership, making violence all the more likely. The Palestinian Authority is between a rock and a hard place, as it cannot directly intervene without destroying its already damaged reputation among Palestinians.
Nerd narrative
There's a 44% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine before 2070, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 244 Roundup: UN Watchdog to Visit Sites Amid 'Dirty Bomb' Claims; Democrats Press Biden to Engage with Russia
Amid Russian allegations that it has evidence that Ukraine is preparing to use a "dirty bomb" which it presented to a closed-door meeting of the UN Security Council on Tuesday, the UN's nuclear watchdog — the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) — said it would send inspectors to two locations in Ukraine at Kyiv's request.
According to Russian news outlet RIA Novosti, Moscow's allegations center around two locations — the Eastern Mineral Enrichment Plant in the central Dnipropetrovsk region and the Institute for Nuclear Research in Kyiv. The IAEA didn't specify which sites it would visit.
Pro-establishment narrative
Russia's allegations of a "dirty bomb" are transparently false. This is a ploy being utilized by the Kremlin to justify a drastic escalation of the war.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia has collected evidence to back up its claims and it's prepared to provide this to Western countries. These allegations should be taken seriously.
Nerd narrative
There's a 5% chance that at least one nuclear weapon will be detonated in Ukraine Before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Charges 13 on Alleged PRC Influence Operations
On Monday, the US Dept. of Justice and FBI announced charges against 13 people allegedly involved in attempts by the Chinese government to influence US operations as part of three separate cases.
Two of the cases were filed in federal court in the eastern district of New York. In one instance, two suspected Chinese spies were charged with trying to obstruct a federal investigation into an unnamed China-based global telecommunications company, speculated to be Huawei.
Anti-China narrative
The DOJ took a bold step to crack down on Chinese influence in America. While some of the allegations sound like gaffes and missteps on the part of the PRC, the reality is deadly serious and the Biden administration must go further to deter China's aggressive misconduct in the US.
Pro-China narrative
Washington's China policy is hypocritical, dangerous, and full of falsehoods. China does not spy, hack, steal information, or even attempt to take advantage of the US. The US has created this narrative to protect its interests, attempting to preserve its international hegemony.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that there will be a US-China war by 2035, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Amnesty Urges ICC Probe Of Possible Gaza War Crimes
On Tuesday, Amnesty International called for an International Criminal Court (ICC) probe into possible war crimes committed by both Israeli forces and Palestinian militants during deadly three-day fighting in Gaza in August.
This comes as the organization presented a new report focusing on three specific attacks that it says killed 13 Palestinian civilians amid what it detailed as Israel's "pre-emptive" military offensive against the Palestinian Islamic Jihad group in Gaza, starting on Aug. 5.
Pro-Palestine narrative
These unlawful attacks come as a consequence of continuous Israeli violence and oppression against the population of Gaza, which has been besieged for years. However, the ICC must investigate not only war crimes in Gaza but also the crime against humanity of apartheid occurring in the Occupied Palestinian Territories in general.
Pro-Israel narrative
While Amnesty International has finally deemed an attack by a Palestinian terror group a war crime, accusing Israel at an unparalleled level reveals that the organization isn't acting impartially. Aside from its fixation with Israel, Amnesty also seems to have double standards; it seriously criticizes Ukraine for failing to protect its citizens but virtually ignores Palestine for the same violations.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Israel will recognize Palestine by November 2065, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Report: Significant CO2 Produced by China's Overseas Power Plants
Research published Tuesday from Boston University's Global Development Policy Center (GDPC) showed carbon dioxide emissions from China-invested power plants overseas now stand at an estimated 245M tons per year — approximately the annual energy-related CO2 emissions of Thailand or Spain.
The research findings indicated that Chinese companies and government-run investment banks have financed as much as 171.6 GW of overseas power generation capacity across 648 power plants in 92 nations.
Pro-China narrative
China is a world leader in the renewable energy sector and can build on its leadership by providing technical support and capacity building for developing nations. With its fully renewable energy industrial chain — including manufacturing, installation, operation, and maintenance —capability, China has and will continue to promote green tech in developing nations.
Anti-China narrative
China became the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2006 and is now responsible for more than 25% of the world's overall greenhouse gas emissions. Without big reductions in the PRC's emissions, the world cannot win the fight against climate change, and Beijing has not clearly stated how it will achieve these goals.
Nerd narrative
There's a 25% chance China will be the first country to develop practical nuclear fusion, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Arizona County Approves Hand Recount
The Cochise County, Ariz. board of supervisors voted 2-1 on Monday in favor of a hand-count audit in all precincts for the Nov. 8 midterm elections. The vote came after two Republican supervisors previously voted against it before facing pressure from GOP voters to reverse course.
The lone Democrat on the board, chairwoman Ann English, voted against both proposals, arguing the county's insurance wouldn't protect them from expected lawsuits. The county's attorney Brian McIntyre said supervisors could be held personally liable in a civil action, with the hand count potentially being found "unlawful."
Democratic narrative
Those skeptical of machine-counted ballots are simply victims of Donald Trump's baseless election lies. Experts and ballot counters alike will tell you that hand counts — except in the smallest jurisdictions — are not only more labor intensive but also inaccurate during recounts. If Americans want to ensure election integrity, machine counts are the way to go.
Republican narrative
The idea that establishment politicians in Arizona should be in charge of ballot-counting decisions is lunacy. For example, Katie Hobbs' office just sent out 6K erroneous ballots, so how can voters trust her judgment on how recounts are conducted? The voters in Cochise County support hand-tabulated recounts, and that's what they deserve.
Nerd narrative
There is a 29% chance that any state will refuse to certify its election results during the 2024 US presidential election, according to the Metaculus Prediction community.
US Midterms: DeSantis, Crist Face Off in Heated Debate
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) and his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Charlie Crist, debated topics including abortion, Hurricane Ian, "culture wars," and DeSantis's future political ambitions on Monday in their only public debate to date.
The economy and rising inflation were also major points of contention between the two candidates, with DeSantis saying that Pres. Joe Biden and the Democrats were the main cause of economic stress.
Republican narrative
It's obvious that Ron DeSantis dominated the debate against Charlie Crist, who could hardly keep up with DeSantis's charismatic style. Crist is having such a hard time raising money for his campaign that he solicited donations from the victims of Hurricane Ian. Simply put, Crist is not a leader, and given DeSantis's comfortable lead in both fundraising and polling, he will likely win an easy victory.
Democratic narrative
Though the odds that Crist will win are slim, he put on a good performance during the debate and rightfully portrayed DeSantis as a Trumpish Republican who is more interested in theatrics and potentially running for president than he is in governing Florida. DeSantis, much like his idol, former Pres. Trump, has consistently compromised the lives of millions of Floridians for his cruel political stunts.
Cynical narrative
This debate was an unfortunate reminder of how ugly the US's political culture has become. DeSantis and Crist traded insults, precooked one-liners, and talking points as each side’s supporters in the audience awkwardly howled in derision of the other candidate and approval of their own.
Nerd narrative
There is a 93% chance that Ron DeSantis will be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
NASA Launches UFO Study
On Monday, NASA launched a nine-month study of unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) — commonly known as UFOs — led by 16 of the "world's leading scientists, data and artificial intelligence practitioners, [and] aerospace safety experts."
The panel — chaired by astrophysicist David Spergel — includes former NASA astronaut Scott Kelly, biological oceanographer Paula Bontempi, and astrophysicist Shelley Wright.
Narrative A
NASA was created to uncover the previously unknown, and this team of researchers is the next step in a long history of world-changing explorations. Beyond the exciting potential for extraterrestrial findings, the national security implications are severe, given the possibility of these UFOs being foreign military aircraft.
Narrative B
While it's nice to see NASA providing researchers interested in UFOs a legitimate platform, NASA isn't actually looking for anything special, as evident from its exclusion of classified data. The small budget, mixed with the limited amount of material to study, shows this is NASA simply throwing a bone at the recently-intrigued public.
Nerd narrative
There's a 7% chance that alien technosignatures will be detected before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Obama Endorses NC Senate Candidate Beasley
In a new campaign ad that began airing on Tuesday, former Pres. Barack Obama endorsed Democrat US Senate candidate Cheri Beasley in North Carolina, a state he won in a close vote in 2008.
Beasley is in a tight race against Republican candidate Ted Budd to replace retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr.
Democratic narrative
It’s essential to boost Beasley’s candidacy not just because her winning would help Democrats maintain control of the Senate but also because she would be the first Black senator ever elected in a state where 22% of the population is Black. With an impeccable resume and a record as a judge devoted to the rule of law, Beasley is proving to be the ideal candidate.
Republican narrative
With an approaching red wave rebound, Republicans are looking more and more likely to win majorities in both chambers of Congress this fall. Democrats’ hyperfocus on abortion at a time when the economy and inflation dominate voters' concerns will cost candidates like Beasley, who might’ve had a shot with the right strategy.
Nerd narrative
There’s a 47% chance Republicans will control the US Senate after the 2022 elections.