UK Court Hears Demands To Ban Xinjiang Cotton
Germany-based World Uyghur Congress (WUC) and the nonprofit Global Legal Action Network are taking the UK government to court to challenge its failure to block the import of cotton products allegedly associated with forced labor and other abuses in China's Xinjiang region.
Tuesday's hearing at the High Court in London is believed to be the first time a foreign court has heard legal arguments from the Uyghurs over the issue of alleged forced labor in Xinjiang, which is estimated to produce one-fifth of the world's cotton.
Anti-China narrative
While the UK may have imposed fines for companies operating in China that fail to prove their products aren't linked to slavery, this isn't enough to punish Beijing for its human rights abuses. Britain should've followed the US and banned all imports of cotton from Xinjiang, as there's plenty of evidence that Uyghurs are being forced to pick the plant under slave-like conditions.
Pro-China narrative
Xinjiang cotton field operations have become highly mechanized, with no signs of forced labor. Nevertheless, the West continues to put forth baseless claims in an attempt to smear Beijing. Cotton-related sanctions will only damage the global cotton industry. If anyone is forcing and exploiting labor in Xinjiang, it's the West with their capitalist system of globalization.
Nerd narrative
There is a 20% chance that the UN will open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of Xinjiang internment camps before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Italy: Meloni Wins Confidence Vote, Condemns Fascism
On Tuesday, Italy's new Premier Giorgia Meloni won the first of two required confidence votes by a 40-vote margin in the lower Chamber of Deputies as her right-wing coalition garnered 235 votes. On Wednesday, the new government was set to face an election in the Senate where it also holds a substantial majority.
This comes hours after she condemned fascism, stating that Mussolini's racial laws in 1938 were "the worst moment in Italian history," and vowed to fight against racism, antisemitism, and discrimination in her opening address to parliament.
Left narrative
Europe must keep a close eye on Italy's far-right, as history has shown that what happens in Rome is soon replicated abroad. And it's hard to find a worse prospect than several Meloni-like leaders coming to power across Europe. Though she acts as if she's a political moderate, Meloni evokes the rhetoric of fascism, is inspired by Hungary's Orbán, and has an ambiguous approach to Putin.
Right narrative
Despite claims from the mainstream left, Meloni isn't a far-right politician — let alone the second coming Mussolini. She embraces mainstream cultural values and common sense, representing a risk only to radical, globalist leftists who have dragged down Italy for years and infiltrated the EU. Meloni can influence the world to decisively reject left-wing orthodoxy.
Nerd narrative
There's a 3% chance that any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Court Orders NYC to Reinstate Unvaccinated Employees
NY state Supreme Court Judge Ralph Porzio on Monday ruled that New York City must rehire and give back pay to city employees who were fired for refusing to be vaccinated against COVID.
The ruling concluded that the vaccine mandate was arbitrary and capricious, adding that, "being vaccinated does not prevent an individual from contracting or transmitting COVID-19."
Republican narrative
Firing first responders did nothing to make NYC safer, it simply put hardworking New Yorkers out of a job and shrank the city's police, fire, and healthcare forces. Furthermore, if Adams truly believed in the science of the mandate, he wouldn't have lifted it for professional athletes and performers while excluding city workers.
Democratic narrative
The vaccine requirement was firmly grounded in both health and law, which is why several other courts have previously upheld the mandate and the city will file an appeal. The mandate isn't an arbitrarily enforced compliance, it's a strategically placed law to protect both workers and the public.
Nerd narrative
There's a 24% chance that any US state will re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before Feb 1, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Fetterman, Oz Face Off In Pennsylvania Senate Debate
On Tuesday night, Pennsylvania's two leading Senate candidates — Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz — held their first and only debate, two weeks ahead of the midterm elections.
The two clashed on several issues — including abortion, crime, inflation, and minimum wage — and exchanged personal attacks as they accused each other of running a campaign based on lies.
Republican narrative
Fetterman's responses, which were confused at best — and at times outright incoherent — were in stark contrast to Oz's pointed and well thought out remarks, making it clear why they had only one debate before the elections. This debate has shown Fetterman to be unfit for public office and has secured the Senate race for Oz.
Democratic narrative
It's evident that Fetterman still has some trouble in speaking due to his stroke, but he's a far better candidate than Oz. Their closing statements in Tuesday's debate proved this as he delivered a mission statement vowing to look out for those in need, while Oz could only repeat a list of Trumpist positions.
Nerd narrative
There's a 42% chance that Mehmet Oz will win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 245 Roundup: New British PM Re-Affirms Support for Ukraine; 'Heaviest of Battles' Ahead in Kherson, Kyiv Says
Britain's new PM, Rishi Sunak — the country's third of the year — re-affirmed the UK's support for Ukraine in a call with Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday. A Downing Street statement said he used the call to "underline the United Kingdom’s steadfast support," which it added would be "as strong as ever under his premiership."
Sunak also spoke with US Pres. Joe Biden and discussed Russia, China and post-Brexit tensions in Northern Ireland. "The leaders agreed on the importance of working together to support Ukraine and hold Russia accountable for its aggression," a White House statement said.
Narrative A
With Ukrainian forces zeroing in on Kherson, Russia looks set for another humiliating defeat — dashing their hopes for taking control of Mykolaiv and Odesa and creating a landbridge to the separatist Transnistria region of Moldova.
Narrative B
With Russian troops bedding in and mobilizing greater forces in the Kherson region, Ukrainian troops may succeed in retaking some territory but it's unlikely they'll recapture the whole region — at least not by the end of the year.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that Ukraine will regain control of Kherson by Dec 23, 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Economists: Global Economy Approaches Recession
The global economy is approaching a recession, according to a Reuters poll that saw economists cut growth forecasts for key economies as central banks keep raising interest rates to bring down high inflation.
Most respondents expect the relatively low unemployment within many of the 47 economies included in the poll to reduce the intensity and length of the recession. However, they also believe it will keep inflation elevated for longer.
Pro-establishment narrative
Central banks need to raise interest rates to combat inflation by making money more expensive to borrow. By encouraging reduced consumption, rate hikes should result in fewer consumers and companies competing over the currently available supply of goods and services, thereby allowing price increases to moderate. It may be a blunt and even painful tool, but it's a necessary one.
Establishment-critical narrative
Continued interest rate hikes will only plunge the world into a recession, severely exacerbate life for the world’s poorest, and fail to tackle the true source of the cost-of-living crisis. Rather than aggravating the deteriorating consumer and investor confidence, there needs to be more attention on supply chain shocks and the “undue advantage” taken by large multinational corporations that boost profits on the backs of some of the world’s poorest.
Pakistan: Khan Announces 'Long March' on Capital
Former Pakistani PM Imran Khan on Tuesday announced a protest march spanning an estimated 236 miles (380 km) from Lahore to Islamabad to call on his government to hold early elections.
The so-called "long march," to be launched on Friday, comes as Pakistan's Election Commission last week barred Khan from holding public office for five years. This was after an investigation ruled he had unlawfully sold gifts from foreign leaders and dignitaries while in office between 2018 to 2022.
Narrative A
Amid a crisis with a cash-strapped government reeling after catastrophic flooding, Khan is playing poker with this "long march" with Sharif and the country's military establishment. It's unknown if Khan can regain power, but his popularity continues to surge.
Narrative B
The corruption charges brought against Khan are just a minor preliminary move from Pakistan's military-controlled bureaucracy. If these don't stick, more serious allegations will be brought to keep the former PM out of office, posing serious roadblocks for him.
Nerd narrative
There's a 43% chance that Pakistan will default on its debts in 2022, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Two In Five Voters Worry About Intimidation At Polls
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll has found that two in five US voters are worried about threats of violence or voter intimidation at polling stations during the Nov. 8 midterm elections, with 51% of Democrat voters and 38% of Republicans sharing these concerns.
The poll also indicates that around two-thirds of voters fear extremists will carry out acts of violence after the election and that 17% believe that their ballot won't be counted accurately, including roughly one-in-ten Democrats and one-in-four Republicans.
Democratic narrative
Though poll watchers have long been part of American elections and civic engagement is usually something positive, this isn't the case this year as far-right groups have recruited conspiracy-minded individuals to monitor ballot drop boxes and polls. Acting as election-fraud crusaders, they've been deepening distrust in US democratic institutions by harassing and intimidating voters and staff. This must be addressed.
Republican narrative
While Democrats have been claiming to feel intimidated and harassed by individuals watching drop boxes in Arizona, it's Republicans who are facing real political violence, including physical attacks, doxing, and defamation campaigns. Restoring confidence in US democratic institutions requires more transparency and civic engagement, not curtailing the rights of the public.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the 2024 US presidential election will be considered fraudulent by the losing party, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
UK: PM Rishi Sunak Appoints New Cabinet
Rishi Sunak has filled key ministerial posts in his government, after being appointed as the UK's PM on Tuesday. The new Conservative party leader enacted an extensive reshuffle that has seen many of his predecessor Liz Truss' supporters leave cabinet.
Those who have exited include business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg, Conservative Party chairman Sir Jake Berry, and chief tory whip Wendy Morton. Brandon Lewis has also been removed from his role as justice secretary, while Robert Buckland has been relieved as secretary of state for Wales.
Right narrative
Sunak's cabinet reshuffle is an essential remedy following the disaster of Truss' premiership and his changes will go a long way to restoring stability. The PM's focus on party unity and ministerial experience is the right approach as he attempts to guide the UK through a difficult economic and political period.
Left narrative
In a desperate attempt to stabilize his own position and unite warring Tories, Sunak has brought back a gang of talentless ex-ministers with records as frontbench flops. This outdated and bland cabinet will only see the UK continue in its unsuccessful status quo that has wreaked havoc in recent years. This is a discouraging start.
NASA Identifies 50 Methane 'Super-Emitters'
On Tuesday, NASA said its Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation mission detected and identified more than 50 "super-emitters" of methane gas in Central Asia, the Middle East, and the southwestern US. The observations occurred as a part of the International Space Station's operations.
Methane absorbs infrared light in a way allowing the NASA mission to detect greenhouse gas more easily. Sites under investigation included oil and gas facilities as well as extensive landfills.
Narrative A
NASA's findings are critical to supporting policymakers in regulating dangerous methane gas emissions. Game-changing monitoring tools are also being developed in Europe, which will help to pinpoint sites like power plants and fossil facilities. These space-based tools will help to hold "super emitters" accountable.
Narrative B
While satellites are excellent sources for monitoring and tracking greenhouse gas emissions, there are shortcomings with space-based data collection systems. Satellites don't typically measure all greenhouse gases everywhere all the time, and they must be coupled with ground-based detection systems if we want a true picture of emitters.
Narrative C
While it's crucial to monitor and hold accountable human-based "super emitters," soon the Arctic will be ejecting just as much greenhouse gas into our atmosphere as a large industrial nation — and even potentially as much as the US has emitted since the start of the industrial revolution. We need to bring the power of satellites and sensors to the barren Arctic as well as to human infrastructure.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that global CO2 emissions will peak by June 2037, according to the Metaculus prediction community.