UN: World Population Reaches 8B
According to UN estimates, the global population reached 8B on Tuesday — a "milestone in human development" before birth rates are predicted to slow. It means 1B people have been added to the world's population in only 12 years.
Despite the new high, the report noted that population growth is at its slowest pace since 1950 and fell under 1% in 2020. According to the UN, the global population could reach 8.5B in 2030 and 9.7B in 2050 before peaking at 10.4B during the 2080s and remaining at that level until 2100.
Narrative A
The issue of concern in this report is the slowing pace of growth that, if left unchecked, will snowball into a population collapse disaster. Despite popular rhetoric, overpopulation isn't the threat; stagnating birth rates — which don't just represent a crisis for a specific country but are an existential threat to the entire planet — are.
Narrative B
There's a lack of consensus that stagnated birth rates pose an existential threat to the planet. There are now 8B people and counting on the earth, and there likely won't be a population collapse any time soon. Besides, slowing population growth would actually bring a myriad of economic and environmental benefits in a world struggling with the threat of climate change.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that if the human population declines to fewer than 100M, it would take 902 years to recover to above 1B again, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Jan 6. Committee: Trump Defies Subpoena
According to a joint statement released by Jan. 6 Committee Chair Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) and co-Chair Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), former president Trump failed to attend his deposition testimony, defying a subpoena issued in October compelling him to give evidence on our near Nov. 14.
Thompson and Cheney stated that the committee will "evaluate the next steps... regarding the former President's noncompliance." Trump sued the committee on Nov. 11 to challenge the subpoena, according to filings in a federal court in Florida.
Democratic narrative
Trump is facing mounting pressure from the January 6 committee as well as the GOP following lackluster midterm results. While Trump may throw his hat into the 2024 ring, he is a divisive force that may split the Republican Party.
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump is looking extremely strong in the polls as a 2024 announcement is near. While Democrats brand Trump and the MAGA movement "deplorable" as they seek to attack the former president, we should remember that they also urged witchhunts against Trump and his supporters. Never underestimate the former president.
Nerd narrative
There's a 16% chance that Donald Trump will be jailed or incarcerated before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
G20 Summit Opens in Bali
The annual Group of 20 (G20) summit opened on Tuesday in Bali, Indonesia, under the theme "Recovering Together, Growing Stronger," amid global economic challenges such as food and energy insecurity and the Ukraine war.
Opening the summit of the world's largest economies, Indonesian president and summit host Joko Widodo called for an end to the Ukraine war and efforts to achieve an "inclusive global recovery." The G20, Widodod said, must not descend "into another cold war."
Establishment-critical narrative
The G20 summit reflects the emergence of a new multipolar world order, which is why the US — despite its fabricated claims of wanting to cooperate — won't succeed in exploiting the summit to impede the rise of China. The Global South's new self-confidence is evident, and the West will not be able to convince the rest of the world to abide by its hypocritical mandates at this summit.
Pro-establishment narrative
As evinced by the recent positive talks between Xi and Biden, the US is making an impressive comeback on the world stage. Russia is coming under increasing pressure over its brutal war of aggression, especially as China apparently now sees a serious threat in Moscow's nuclear rhetoric. These are positive signs that pressure will jointly be increased on Russia, forcing it to end the war and allowing the rules-based world order to once again contribute to the well-being of humanity.
Nerd narrative
There is a 98% chance that Russia will be the most sanctioned country in the world by Feb. 22, 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Day 265 Roundup: Rockets Strike Poland, Zelenskyy Issues 'Formula for Peace'
Poland's Bureau of National Security convened an emergency meeting on Tuesday night following reports that two people were killed after missiles landed near the country's border with Ukraine. It comes as Moscow reportedly launched dozens of missiles at targets across Ukraine, marking one of its biggest barrages since the start of the war. Russia has dismissed reports that it's to blame for the rockets that struck Poland as a "deliberate provocation aimed at escalation," and who fired the missiles remains unclear.
Meanwhile, as the G20 summit kicked off in Indonesia on Tuesday, Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy — whose country isn't a member of the group — addressed the leaders virtually. He issued a 10-point "formula for peace" while insisting that fighting must continue "in order to liberate our entire land from the Ruscists [sic]." He continued: "if the victory will be ours in any case — and we are sure of it — then should we not try to implement our formula for peace to save thousands of lives and protect the world from further destabilization?"
Pro-establishment narrative
Although some countries aren't demonstrating their opposition to the Kremlin too publicly — in order to avoid being caught in the middle of tensions between the US and Russia — the G20 statement will demonstrate that most countries condemn Russia's actions in Ukraine and that Moscow will continue to face isolation until it completely withdraws from the country.
Pro-Russia narrative
Western diplomats have made efforts to sneak language into the G20 draft statement suggesting that the whole of the group — including Russia — opposes the war in Ukraine. However, Moscow has ensured that its perspective is well-reflected in the text, and that the statement accurately reflects the varied views on the special operation of the broad range of countries in the G20.
Nerd narrative
There is a 2% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy will meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukraine conflict before 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
US Midterms: Hobbs Projected to Defeat Lake for Ariz. Gov
With 98% of expected votes counted as of Monday overnight, Arizona's Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is projected to become the state's next governor as she leads by a 0.8-point margin over Republican Kari Lake.
Hobbs, who ran on a platform that included abortion rights and increasing teacher salaries, will be the first Democrat to hold Arizona's top office since Janet Napolitano resigned in 2009 to work in the Obama admin.
Democratic narrative
US voters have sent a clear and strong message to election deniers in these midterm elections. This is even more meaningful in Arizona, which was a hotbed of dangerous denialism this year — Kari Lake was defeated in the gubernatorial race, Blake Masters failed to become senator, and Mark Finchem wasn't elected secretary of state.
Republican narrative
It may be time for a pivot away from Trump and his allies. Kari Lake and Senate nominee Blake Masters underperformed compared to other GOP candidates in the state, including state Treasury Kimberly Yee who ran against Lake in the primary for governor. Arizona may benefit from learning from the surging success of Ron DeSantis in Florida.
Pro-Trump narrative
It's utterly unfair that establishment GOP lobbyists and politicians who were bragging about the election quickly blamed Trump for the poorer-than-expected results. If they had comprehensively analyzed this election they would realize that turning on Trump is counterproductive. More needs to be done to enhance outreach to small donors and voters.
Nerd narrative
There's a 50% chance that the next US presidential election will also be considered fraudulent by the losing party, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
Djokovic to be Granted Visa for Australian Open
After being deported in January due to his unvaccinated status, Australia will reportedly overturn tennis star Novak Djokovic's three-year ban and grant him a new visa to play in the 2023 Australian Open.
After winning the ATP Finals in Turin, Italy Monday night, the Serbian tennis champion told reporters that his team is "communicating with the government of Australia,” with Australian Open director Craig Tiley also alluding to Djokovic's return.
Establishment-critical narrative
Djokovic has been too nice to the Australian government after they treated him like a pariah. Although it will be great to see one of the world's greatest players back on the court, Australia should forever feel ashamed for detaining him like a criminal simply for exercising his right to bodily autonomy.
Pro-establishment narrative
At the time, Djokovic was treated appropriately by the Australian government given the pandemic circumstances and his actions. Not only was the government enforcing its clearly-stated vaccination rules, but Djokovic was caught lying about having visited other countries before arriving. Times are different now, but no one should feel sorry about the past.
US to Open Investigation Into Abu Akleh Killing
On Monday, Israeli officials announced that the US has outlined plans to open its own investigation into the death of Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, who was killed in May while covering a raid in the West Bank city of Jenin.
Palestinian officials, Abu Akleh's family, and Al Jazeera accuse Israel of intentionally killing Abu Akleh, who was wearing a helmet and a vest that said "press" when she was shot.
Pro-Israel narrative
While tragic, Abu Akleh's death wasn't deliberate, as found by multiple investigations. The IDF's probe — which included the US — thoroughly investigated the incident, while critics of Israel have been quick to jump to conclusions. The FBI's investigation will only waste time and damage the alliance between the two countries.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The fact that the US is now launching an official investigation into Shireen Abu Akleh's death means that it likely has credible evidence that a crime was committed. This long overdue probe is an important step toward accountability for the frequent and relentless Israeli human rights abuses.
Opioid Settlement: Walmart Agrees To $3.1B Framework
Arkansas-headquartered retail giant Walmart Inc. announced on Tuesday a plan to pay $3.1B to settle lawsuits filed by state and local governments over the opioid epidemic in the US.
This comes as seventeen states, along with multiple cities and Native American tribes, have accused Walmart of recklessly distributing painkillers despite concerns, creating and fueling the opioid epidemic.
Establishment-critical narrative
Pharmacy chains have finally agreed to pay for their guilt in this public health disaster that has claimed the lives of thousands of Americans. While they've long alleged that their pharmacists were only filling doctor-ordered prescriptions, it's evident that these companies were strictly focused on profiting and showed no social conscience in face of the tragic opioid epidemic.
Pro-establishment narrative
While not responsible for this crisis, Walmart has taken decisive steps to support affected communities across the US much faster than any other nationwide settlement to date. In addition, it has empowered pharmacists and engaged in educating patients about opioid abuse while also advocating for state and national policies to prevent its abuse and misuse.
Giuliani Won’t Face Charges in Ukraine Lobbying Probe
Federal prosecutors in New York on Monday filed a brief letter in a US District Court stating that Rudy Giuliani, ex-personal lawyer to former Pres. Trump, would face no criminal charges in a three-year grand jury investigation of his alleged lobbying efforts in Ukraine “based on information currently available to the Government.”
In response to the news, Giuliani tweeted, "Complete & Total Vindication,” while his attorney Robert Costello said he wasn’t surprised there were no charges because “there was no evidence that he did anything wrong.”
Republican narrative
The Democratic witch hunt that failed to convict Trump during his first impeachment has now come up short in its pursuit of punishing Giuliani for something he didn’t do. He maintained his innocence throughout this baseless investigation, and now he’s been vindicated.
Democratic narrative
Giuliani shouldn’t be boasting about barely escaping this tight legal bind. Evidence shows he did some disreputable things on behalf of Trump in Ukraine. A Republican-led Senate let Trump off the hook, but we don’t know if Giuliani has been exonerated or was let off on a technicality because prosecutors haven't commented on this filing.
Trump Launches 2024 Presidential Run
Former Pres. Trump on Tuesday night announced his third campaign for president. His speech focused on issues like crime, drugs, and illegal immigration and avoided intraparty attacks on figures like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnel and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Trump promised to "insist" local officials accept federal aid to quell violent crime, finish the border wall, and deport "illegal immigrant criminals." He also called for congressional term limits, a lifetime ban on members of Congress becoming lobbyists, and new rules restricting congressional stock trades.
Pro-Trump narrative
Just as he was written off by the GOP establishment in 2016, Donald Trump again faces an uphill battle against his party's elites and their preferred candidates. Though not an easy feat, Republicans cannot ignore the sway he still holds with the base and his status as the candidate for the common people.
Republican narrative
After Trump's abysmal sway over the midterm elections — followed by his attack on the widely popular DeSantis — it's time to pass the torch to a new leader. It will be difficult to set Trump aside, but GOP voters are ready for a fresh candidate that can take the mantle in 2024.
Democratic narrative
After experiencing four years of a traumatic Trump presidency, Americans know that they deserve better. Though Republicans in 2016 were able to get behind Trump's faux-populist views on trade and immigration, the midterms showed that his candidacy in 2024 would be another referendum on Democracy itself.